There are many criteria for measuring the value of information (VOI), each based on a different principle that is usually suitable for specific applications. We propose a new criterion for measuring the value of information, which values information that leads to robust decisions (i.e., ones that are unlikely to change due to new information). We also introduce an algorithm for Naive Bayes networks that selects features with maximal VOI under the new criteria. We discuss the application of the new criteria to classification tasks, showing how it can be used to tradeoff the budget, allotted for acquiring information, with the classification accuracy. In particular, we show empirically that the new criteria can reduce the expended budget significantly while reducing the classification accuracy only slightly. We also show empirically that the new criterion leads to decisions that are much more robust than those based on traditional VOI criteria, such as information gain and classification loss. This make the new criteria particularly suitable for certain decision making applications.

We consider the problem of, given a probabilistic model on a set of random variables, how to add a new variable that depends on the other variables, without changing the original distribution. In particular, we consider relational models (such as Markov logic networks (MLNs)), where we cannot directly define conditional probabilities. In relational models, there may be an unbounded number of parents in the grounding, and conditional distributions need to be defined in terms of aggregators. The question we ask is whether and when it is possible to represent conditional probabilities at all in various relational models. Some aggregators have been shown to be representable by MLNs, by adding auxiliary variables; however it was unknown whether they could be defined without auxiliary variables. For other aggregators, it was not known whether they can be represented by MLNs at all. We obtained surprisingly strong negative results on the capability of flexible undirected relational models such as MLNs to represent aggregators without affecting the original model's distribution. We provide a map of what aspects of the models, including the use of auxiliary variables and quantifiers, result in the ability to represent various aggregators. In addition, we provide proof techniques which can be used to facilitate future theoretic results on relational models, and demonstrate them on relational logistic regression (RLR).

Many real-world Bayesian inference problems such as preference learning or trader valuation modeling in financial markets naturally use piecewise likelihoods. Unfortunately, exact closed-form inference in the underlying Bayesian graphical models is intractable in the general case and existing approximation techniques provide few guarantees on both approximation quality and efficiency. While (Markov Chain) Monte Carlo methods provide an attractive asymptotically unbiased approximation approach, rejection sampling and Metropolis-Hastings both prove inefficient in practice, and analytical derivation of Gibbs samplers require exponential space and time in the amount of data. In this work, we show how to transform problematic piecewise likelihoods into equivalent mixture models and then provide a blocked Gibbs sampling approach for this transformed model that achieves an exponential-to-linear reduction in space and time compared to a conventional Gibbs sampler. This enables fast, asymptotically unbiased Bayesian inference in a new expressive class of piecewise graphical models and empirically requires orders of magnitude less time than rejection, Metropolis-Hastings, and conventional Gibbs sampling methods to achieve the same level of accuracy.

Recent advances in Symbolic Dynamic Programming (SDP) combined withthe extended algebraic decision diagram (XADD) have provided exactsolutions for expressive subclasses of finite-horizon Hybrid MarkovDecision Processes (HMDPs) with mixed continuous and discrete stateand action parameters. Unfortunately, SDP suffers from two majordrawbacks: (1) it solves for all states and can be intractable formany problems that inherently have large optimal XADD value functionrepresentations; and (2) it cannot maintain compact (pruned) XADDrepresentations for domains with nonlinear dynamics and reward due tothe need for nonlinear constraint checking. In this work, wesimultaneously address both of these problems by introducing real-timeSDP (RTSDP). RTSDP addresses (1) by focusing the solution and valuerepresentation only on regions reachable from a set of initial statesand RTSDP addresses (2) by using visited states as witnesses ofreachable regions to assist in pruning irrelevant or unreachable(nonlinear) regions of the value function. To this end, RTSDP enjoysprovable convergence over the set of initial states and substantialspace and time savings over SDP as we demonstrate in a variety of hybrid domains ranging from inventory to reservoir to traffic control.

The traditional way of obtaining models from data, inductive learning, has proved itself both in theory and in many practical applications. However, in domains where data is difficult or expensive to obtain, e.g., medicine, deep transfer learning is a more promising technique. It circumvents the model acquisition difficulties caused by scarce data in a target domain by carrying over structural properties of a model learned in a source domain where training data is ample. Nonetheless, the lack of a principled view of transfer learning so far has limited its adoption. In this paper, we address this issue by regarding transfer learning as a process that biases learning in a target domain in favor of patterns useful in a source domain. Specifically, we consider a first-order logic model of the data as an instantiation of a set of second-order templates. Hence, the usefulness of a model is partly determined by the learner's prior distribution over these template sets. The main insight of our work is that transferring knowledge amounts to acquiring a posterior over the second-order template sets by learning in the source domain and using this posterior when learning in the target setting. Our experimental evaluation demonstrates our approach to outperform the existing transfer learning techniques in terms of accuracy and runtime.

We present a probabilistic model for tensor decomposition where one or more tensor modes may have side-information about the mode entities in form of their features and/or their adjacency network. We consider a Bayesian approach based on the Canonical PARAFAC (CP) decomposition and enrich this single-layer decomposition approach with a two-layer decomposition. The second layer fits a factor model for each layer-one factor matrix and models the factor matrix via the mode entities' features and/or the network between the mode entities. The second-layer decomposition of each factor matrix also learns a binary latent representation for the entities of that mode, which can be useful in its own right. Our model can handle both continuous as well as binary tensor observations. Another appealing aspect of our model is the simplicity of the model inference, with easy-to-sample Gibbs updates. We demonstrate the results of our model on several benchmarks datasets, consisting of both real and binary tensors.

Interactions among people or objects are often dynamic in nature and can be represented as a sequence of networks, each providing a snapshot of the interactions over a brief period of time. An important task in analyzing such evolving networks is change-point detection, in which we both identify the times at which the large-scale pattern of interactions changes fundamentally and quantify how large and what kind of change occurred. Here, we formalize for the first time the network change-point detection problem within an online probabilistic learning framework and introduce a method that can reliably solve it. This method combines a generalized hierarchical random graph model with a Bayesian hypothesis test to quantitatively determine if, when, and precisely how a change point has occurred. We analyze the detectability of our method using synthetic data with known change points of different types and magnitudes, and show that this method is more accurate than several previously used alternatives. Applied to two high-resolution evolving social networks, this method identifies a sequence of change points that align with known external ``shocks'' to these networks.

The hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP) is a powerful nonparametric Bayesian approach to modeling groups of data which allows the mixture components in each group to be shared. However, in many cases the groups themselves are also in latent groups (categories) which may impact the modeling a lot. In order to utilize the unknown category information of grouped data, we present the hybrid nested/ hierarchical Dirichlet process (hNHDP), a prior that blends the desirable aspects of both the HDP and the nested Dirichlet Process (NDP). Specifically, we introduce a clustering structure for the groups. The prior distribution for each cluster is a realization of a Dirichlet process. Moreover, the set of cluster-specific distributions can share part of atoms between groups, and the shared atoms and specific atoms are generated separately. We apply the hNHDP to document modeling and bring in a mechanism to identify discriminative words and topics. We derive an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme for posterior inference and present experiments on document modeling.

This paper is concerned with model-based clustering of discrete data. Latent class models (LCMs) are usually used for the task. An LCM consists of a latent variable and a number of attributes. It makes the overly restrictive assumption that the attributes are mutually independent given the latent variable. We propose a novel method to relax the assumption. The key idea is to partition the attributes into groups such that correlations among the attributes in each group can be properly modeled by using one single latent variable. The latent variables for the attribute groups are then used to build a number of models and one of them is chosen to produce the clustering results. Extensive empirical studies have been conducted to compare the new method with LCM and several other methods (K-means, kernel K-means and spectral clustering) that are not model-based. The new method outperforms the alternative methods in most cases and the differences are often large.

Supervised dimensionality reduction has shown great advantages in finding predictive subspaces. Previous methods rarely consider the popular maximum margin principle and are prone to overfitting to usually small training data, especially for those under the maximum likelihood framework. In this paper, we present a posterior-regularized Bayesian approach to combine Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with the max-margin learning. Based on the data augmentation idea for max-margin learning and the probabilistic interpretation of PCA, our method can automatically infer the weight and penalty parameter of max-margin learning machine, while finding the most appropriate PCA subspace simultaneously under the Bayesian framework. We develop a fast mean-field variational inference algorithm to approximate the posterior. Experimental results on various classification tasks show that our method outperforms a number of competitors.