How can we efficiently propagate uncertainty in a latent state representation with recurrent neural networks? This paper introduces stochastic recurrent neural networks which glue a deterministic recurrent neural network and a state space model together to form a stochastic and sequential neural generative model. The clear separation of deterministic and stochastic layers allows a structured variational inference network to track the factorization of the model's posterior distribution. By retaining both the nonlinear recursive structure of a recurrent neural network and averaging over the uncertainty in a latent path, like a state space model, we improve the state of the art results on the Blizzard and TIMIT speech modeling data sets by a large margin, while achieving comparable performances to competing methods on polyphonic music modeling.

A BSTRACT Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) is a bipartite graphical model that is used as the building block in energy-based deep generative models. Due to numerical stability and quantifiability of the likelihood, RBM is commonly used with Bernoulli units. Here, we consider an alternative member of exponential family RBM with leaky rectified linear units - called leaky RBM. We first study the joint and marginal distributions of leaky RBM under different leakiness, which provides us important insights by connecting the leaky RBM model and truncated Gaussian distributions. The connection leads us to a simple yet efficient method for sampling from this model, where the basic idea is to anneal the leakiness rather than the energy; - i.e., start from a fully Gaussian/Linear unit and gradually decrease the leakiness over iterations. This serves as an alternative to the annealing of the temperature parameter and enables numerical estimation of the likelihood that are more efficient and more accurate than the commonly used annealed importance sampling (AIS). We further demonstrate that the proposed sampling algorithm enjoys faster mixing property than contrastive divergence algorithm, which benefits the training without any additional computational cost. 1 I NTRODUCTION In this paper, we are interested in deep generative models. There is a family of directed deep generative models which can be trained by back-propagation (e.g., Kingma & Welling, 2013; Goodfellow et al., 2014). The other family is the deep energy-based models, including deep belief network (Hinton et al., 2006) and deep Boltzmann machine (Salakhutdinov & Hinton, 2009).

Recent sequential pattern mining methods have used the minimum description length (MDL) principle to define an encoding scheme which describes an algorithm for mining the most compressing patterns in a database. We present a novel subsequence interleaving model based on a probabilistic model of the sequence database, which allows us to search for the most compressing set of patterns without designing a specific encoding scheme. Our proposed algorithm is able to efficiently mine the most relevant sequential patterns and rank them using an associated measure of interestingness. The efficient inference in our model is a direct result of our use of a structural expectation-maximization framework, in which the expectation-step takes the form of a submodular optimization problem subject to a coverage constraint. We show on both synthetic and real world datasets that our model mines a set of sequential patterns with low spuriousness and redundancy, high interpretability and usefulness in real-world applications. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the quality of the patterns from our approach is comparable to, if not better than, existing state of the art sequential pattern mining algorithms.

We develop a supervised machine learning model that detects anomalies in systems in real time. Our model processes unbounded streams of data into time series which then form the basis of a low-latency anomaly detection model. Moreover, we extend our preliminary goal of just anomaly detection to simultaneous anomaly prediction. We approach this very challenging problem by developing a Bayesian Network framework that captures the information about the parameters of the lagged regressors calibrated in the first part of our approach and use this structure to learn local conditional probability distributions.

Probabilistic Temporal Tensor Factorization (PTTF) is an effective algorithm to model the temporal tensor data. It leverages a time constraint to capture the evolving properties of tensor data. Nowadays the exploding dataset demands a large scale PTTF analysis, and a parallel solution is critical to accommodate the trend. Whereas, the parallelization of PTTF still remains unexplored. In this paper, we propose a simple yet efficient Parallel Probabilistic Temporal Tensor Factorization, referred to as P$^2$T$^2$F, to provide a scalable PTTF solution. P$^2$T$^2$F is fundamentally disparate from existing parallel tensor factorizations by considering the probabilistic decomposition and the temporal effects of tensor data. It adopts a new tensor data split strategy to subdivide a large tensor into independent sub-tensors, the computation of which is inherently parallel. We train P$^2$T$^2$F with an efficient algorithm of stochastic Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers, and show that the convergence is guaranteed. Experiments on several real-word tensor datasets demonstrate that P$^2$T$^2$F is a highly effective and efficiently scalable algorithm dedicated for large scale probabilistic temporal tensor analysis.

We consider several estimation and learning problems that networked agents face when making decisions given their uncertainty about an unknown variable. Our methods are designed to efficiently deal with heterogeneity in both size and quality of the observed data, as well as heterogeneity over time (intermittence). The goal of the studied aggregation schemes is to efficiently combine the observed data that is spread over time and across several network nodes, accounting for all the network heterogeneities. Moreover, we require no form of coordination beyond the local neighborhood of every network agent or sensor node. The three problems that we consider are (i) maximum likelihood estimation of the unknown given initial data sets, (ii) learning the true model parameter from streams of data that the agents receive intermittently over time, and (iii) minimum variance estimation of a complete sufficient statistic from several data points that the networked agents collect over time. In each case we rely on an aggregation scheme to combine the observations of all agents; moreover, when the agents receive streams of data over time, we modify the update rules to accommodate the most recent observations. In every case, we demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithms by proving convergence to the globally efficient estimators given the observations of all agents. We supplement these results by investigating the rate of convergence and providing finite-time performance guarantees.

The statistically equivalent signature (SES) algorithm is a method for feature selection inspired by the principles of constrained-based learning of Bayesian Networks. Most of the currently available feature-selection methods return only a single subset of features, supposedly the one with the highest predictive power. We argue that in several domains multiple subsets can achieve close to maximal predictive accuracy, and that arbitrarily providing only one has several drawbacks. The SES method attempts to identify multiple, predictive feature subsets whose performances are statistically equivalent. Under that respect SES subsumes and extends previous feature selection algorithms, like the max-min parent children algorithm. SES is implemented in an homonym function included in the R package MXM, standing for mens ex machina, meaning 'mind from the machine' in Latin. The MXM implementation of SES handles several data-analysis tasks, namely classification, regression and survival analysis. In this paper we present the SES algorithm, its implementation, and provide examples of use of the SES function in R. Furthermore, we analyze three publicly available data sets to illustrate the equivalence of the signatures retrieved by SES and to contrast SES against the state-of-the-art feature selection method LASSO. Our results provide initial evidence that the two methods perform comparably well in terms of predictive accuracy and that multiple, equally predictive signatures are actually present in real world data.

In machine learning, you may often wish to build predictors that allows to classify things into categories based on some set of associated values. For example, it is possible to provide a diagnosis to a patient based on data from previous patients. Many algorithms have been developed for automated classification, and common ones include random forests, support vector machines, Naïve Bayes classifiers, and many types of neural networks. To get a feel for how classification works, we take a simple example of a classification algorithm – k-Nearest Neighbours (kNN) – and build it from scratch in Python 2. You can use a mostly imperative style of coding, rather than a declarative/functional one with lambda functions and list comprehensions to keep things simple if you are starting with Python. Here, we will provide an introduction to the latter approach.

Deep reinforcement learning (deep RL) has been successful in learning sophisticated behaviors automatically; however, the learning process requires a huge number of trials. In contrast, animals can learn new tasks in just a few trials, benefiting from their prior knowledge about the world. This paper seeks to bridge this gap. Rather than designing a "fast" reinforcement learning algorithm, we propose to represent it as a recurrent neural network (RNN) and learn it from data. In our proposed method, RL$^2$, the algorithm is encoded in the weights of the RNN, which are learned slowly through a general-purpose ("slow") RL algorithm. The RNN receives all information a typical RL algorithm would receive, including observations, actions, rewards, and termination flags; and it retains its state across episodes in a given Markov Decision Process (MDP). The activations of the RNN store the state of the "fast" RL algorithm on the current (previously unseen) MDP. We evaluate RL$^2$ experimentally on both small-scale and large-scale problems. On the small-scale side, we train it to solve randomly generated multi-arm bandit problems and finite MDPs. After RL$^2$ is trained, its performance on new MDPs is close to human-designed algorithms with optimality guarantees. On the large-scale side, we test RL$^2$ on a vision-based navigation task and show that it scales up to high-dimensional problems.

Bayesian inference is a way to get sharper predictions from your data. It's particularly useful when you don't have as much data as you would like and want to juice every last bit of predictive strength from it. Although it is sometimes described with reverence, Bayesian inference isn't magic or mystical. And even though the math under the hood can get dense, the concepts behind it are completely accessible. In brief, Bayesian inference lets you draw stronger conclusions from your data by folding in what you already know about the answer. Bayesian inference is based on the ideas of Thomas Bayes, a nonconformist Presbyterian minister in London about 300 years ago. He wrote two books, one on theology, and one on probability. His work included his now famous Bayes Theorem in raw form, which has since been applied to the problem of inference, the technical term for educated guessing. The popularity of Bayes' ideas was aided immeasurably by another minister, Richard Price.