Prediction in a small-sized sample with a large number of covariates, the "small n, large p" problem, is challenging. This setting is encountered in multiple applications, such as precision medicine, where obtaining additional samples can be extremely costly or even impossible, and extensive research effort has recently been dedicated to finding principled solutions for accurate prediction. However, a valuable source of additional information, domain experts, has not yet been efficiently exploited. We formulate knowledge elicitation generally as a probabilistic inference process, where expert knowledge is sequentially queried to improve predictions. In the specific case of sparse linear regression, where we assume the expert has knowledge about the values of the regression coefficients or about the relevance of the features, we propose an algorithm and computational approximation for fast and efficient interaction, which sequentially identifies the most informative features on which to query expert knowledge. Evaluations of our method in experiments with simulated and real users show improved prediction accuracy already with a small effort from the expert.

In the last few months, I have had several people contact me about their enthusiasm for venturing into the world of data science and using Machine Learning (ML) techniques to probe statistical regularities and build impeccable data-driven products. However, I've observed that some actually lack the necessary mathematical intuition and framework to get useful results. This is the main reason I decided to write this blog post. Recently, there has been an upsurge in the availability of many easy-to-use machine and deep learning packages such as scikit-learn, Weka, Tensorflow etc. Machine Learning theory is a field that intersects statistical, probabilistic, computer science and algorithmic aspects arising from learning iteratively from data and finding hidden insights which can be used to build intelligent applications. Despite the immense possibilities of Machine and Deep Learning, a thorough mathematical understanding of many of these techniques is necessary for a good grasp of the inner workings of the algorithms and getting good results. There are many reasons why the mathematics of Machine Learning is important and I'll highlight some of them below: What Level of Maths Do You Need?

Mixture-of-experts (MoE) models are a powerful paradigm for modeling of data arising from complex data generating processes (DGPs). In this article, we demonstrate how different MoE models can be constructed to approximate the underlying DGPs of arbitrary types of data. Due to the probabilistic nature of MoE models, we propose the maximum quasi-likelihood (MQL) estimator as a method for estimating MoE model parameters from data, and we provide conditions under which MQL estimators are consistent and asymptotically normal. The blockwise minorization-maximizatoin (blockwise-MM) algorithm framework is proposed as an all-purpose method for constructing algorithms for obtaining MQL estimators. An example derivation of a blockwise-MM algorithm is provided. We then present a method for constructing information criteria for estimating the number of components in MoE models and provide justification for the classic Bayesian information criterion (BIC). We explain how MoE models can be used to conduct classification, clustering, and regression and we illustrate these applications via a pair of worked examples.

While Bayesian methods are praised for their ability to incorporate useful prior knowledge, in practice, convenient priors that allow for computationally cheap or tractable inference are commonly used. In this paper, we investigate the following question: for a given model, is it possible to compute an inference result with any convenient false prior, and afterwards, given any target prior of interest, quickly transform this result into the target posterior? A potential solution is to use importance sampling (IS). However, we demonstrate that IS will fail for many choices of the target prior, depending on its parametric form and similarity to the false prior. Instead, we propose prior swapping, a method that leverages the pre-inferred false posterior to efficiently generate accurate posterior samples under arbitrary target priors. Prior swapping lets us apply less-costly inference algorithms to certain models, and incorporate new or updated prior information "post-inference". We give theoretical guarantees about our method, and demonstrate it empirically on a number of models and priors.

In this paper we propose a mixture model, SparseMix, for clustering of sparse high dimensional binary data, which connects model-based with centroid-based clustering. Every group is described by a representative and a probability distribution modeling dispersion from this representative. In contrast to classical mixture models based on EM algorithm, SparseMix: -is especially designed for the processing of sparse data, -can be efficiently realized by an on-line Hartigan optimization algorithm, -is able to automatically reduce unnecessary clusters. We perform extensive experimental studies on various types of data, which confirm that SparseMix builds partitions with higher compatibility with reference grouping than related methods. Moreover, constructed representatives often better reveal the internal structure of data.

The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, also called mean-reverting diffusion process, describes a process which evolves following a deterministic linear part with an added Gaussian noise, similarly to a vectorautoregressive process in discrete time. This model is ubiquitous in quantitative finance, for instance the one-dimensional version is used for modeling rates and is called the Vasicek model [Hul09]. In a multidimensional setting, it can be therefore used to describe systems with linear interactions perturbed by Gaussian noise, see Figure 1 below. Among many others, an example of application is inter-bank lending [CFS15, FI13], where lending is a flux of reserves and is proportional to the difference in reserves. A natural question is therefore how to estimate the interaction structure from the observation of the process. Unfortunately, the optimal solution based on the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) is typically quite inaccurate in high-dimensional settings, because of the well-known curse of dimensionality, see for instance [BvdG11]. However, in real-world applications, the interaction structure is sparse: in the example mentioned above, banks have typically only a few lending partners [GG14, GSV15, BBvL15], as the lending arrangements are typically done on a personal level.

We develop a model in which interactions between nodes of a dynamic network are counted by non homogeneous Poisson processes. In a block modelling perspective, nodes belong to hidden clusters (whose number is unknown) and the intensity functions of the counting processes only depend on the clusters of nodes. In order to make inference tractable we move to discrete time by partitioning the entire time horizon in which interactions are observed in fixed-length time sub-intervals. First, we derive an exact integrated classification likelihood criterion and maximize it relying on a greedy search approach. This allows to estimate the memberships to clusters and the number of clusters simultaneously. Then a maximum-likelihood estimator is developed to estimate non parametrically the integrated intensities. We discuss the over-fitting problems of the model and propose a regularized version solving these issues. Experiments on real and simulated data are carried out in order to assess the proposed methodology.

The stochastic block model (SBM) is a flexible probabilistic tool that can be used to model interactions between clusters of nodes in a network. However, it does not account for interactions of time varying intensity between clusters. The extension of the SBM developed in this paper addresses this shortcoming through a temporal partition: assuming interactions between nodes are recorded on fixed-length time intervals, the inference procedure associated with the model we propose allows to cluster simultaneously the nodes of the network and the time intervals. The number of clusters of nodes and of time intervals, as well as the memberships to clusters, are obtained by maximizing an exact integrated complete-data likelihood, relying on a greedy search approach. Experiments on simulated and real data are carried out in order to assess the proposed methodology.

It is no doubt that the sub-field of machine learning / artificial intelligence has increasingly gained more popularity in the past couple of years. As Big Data is the hottest trend in the tech industry at the moment, machine learning is incredibly powerful to make predictions or calculated suggestions based on large amounts of data. Some of the most common examples of machine learning are Netflix's algorithms to make movie suggestions based on movies you have watched in the past or Amazon's algorithms that recommend books based on books you have bought before. So if you want to learn more about machine learning, how do you start? For me, my first introduction is when I took an Artificial Intelligence class when I was studying abroad in Copenhagen.

In this paper we provide a conceptual overview of latent variable models within a probabilistic modeling framework, an overview that emphasizes the compositional nature and the interconnectedness of the seemingly disparate models commonly encountered in statistical practice.