Both scientists and children make important structural discoveries, yet their computational underpinnings are not well understood. Structure discovery has previously been formalized as probabilistic inference about the right structural form --- where form could be a tree, ring, chain, grid, etc. [Kemp & Tenenbaum (2008). The discovery of structural form. PNAS, 105(3), 10687-10692]. While this approach can learn intuitive organizations, including a tree for animals and a ring for the color circle, it assumes a strong inductive bias that considers only these particular forms, and each form is explicitly provided as initial knowledge. Here we introduce a new computational model of how organizing structure can be discovered, utilizing a broad hypothesis space with a preference for sparse connectivity. Given that the inductive bias is more general, the model's initial knowledge shows little qualitative resemblance to some of the discoveries it supports. As a consequence, the model can also learn complex structures for domains that lack intuitive description, as well as predict human property induction judgments without explicit structural forms. By allowing form to emerge from sparsity, our approach clarifies how both the richness and flexibility of human conceptual organization can coexist.

Predicting epidemic dynamics is of great value in understanding and controlling diffusion processes, such as infectious disease spread and information propagation. This task is intractable, especially when surveillance resources are very limited. To address the challenge, we study the problem of active surveillance, i.e., how to identify a small portion of system components as sentinels to effect monitoring, such that the epidemic dynamics of an entire system can be readily predicted from the partial data collected by such sentinels. We propose a novel measure, the gamma value, to identify the sentinels by modeling a sentinel network with row sparsity structure. We design a flexible group sparse Bayesian learning algorithm to mine the sentinel network suitable for handling both linear and non-linear dynamical systems by using the expectation maximization method and variational approximation. The efficacy of the proposed algorithm is theoretically analyzed and empirically validated using both synthetic and real-world data.

A major target of linguistics and cognitive science has been to understand what class of learning systems can acquire the key structures of natural language. Until recently, the computational requirements of language have been used to argue that learning is impossible without a highly constrained hypothesis space. Here, we describe a learning system that is maximally unconstrained, operating over the space of all computations, and is able to acquire several of the key structures present natural language from positive evidence alone. The model successfully acquires regular (e.g. $(ab)^n$), context-free (e.g. $a^n b^n$, $x x^R$), and context-sensitive (e.g. $a^nb^nc^n$, $a^nb^mc^nd^m$, $xx$) formal languages. Our approach develops the concept of factorized programs in Bayesian program induction in order to help manage the complexity of representation. We show in learning, the model predicts several phenomena empirically observed in human grammar acquisition experiments.

Variational inference for latent variable models is prevalent in various machine learning problems, typically solved by maximizing the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) of the true data likelihood with respect to a variational distribution. However, freely enriching the family of variational distribution is challenging since the ELBO requires variational likelihood evaluations of the latent variables. In this paper, we propose a novel framework to enrich the variational family based on an alternative lower bound, by introducing auxiliary random variables to the variational distribution only. While offering a much richer family of complex variational distributions, the resulting inference network is likelihood almost free in the sense that only the latent variables require evaluations from simple likelihoods and samples from all the auxiliary variables are sufficient for maximum likelihood inference. We show that the proposed approach is essentially optimizing a probabilistic mixture of ELBOs, thus enriching modeling capacity and enhancing robustness. It outperforms state-of-the-art methods in our experiments on several density estimation tasks.

Inpatient care is a large share of total health care spending, making analysis of inpatient utilization patterns an important part of understanding what drives health care spending growth. Common features of inpatient utilization measures include zero inflation, over-dispersion, and skewness, all of which complicate statistical modeling. Mixture modeling is a popular approach that can accommodate these features of health care utilization data. In this work, we add a nonparametric clustering component to such models. Our fully Bayesian model framework allows for an unknown number of mixing components, so that the data determine the number of mixture components. When we apply the modeling framework to data on hospital lengths of stay for patients with lung cancer, we find distinct subgroups of patients with differences in means and variances of hospital days, health and treatment covariates, and relationships between covariates and length of stay.

Non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) is a technique for finding latent representations of data. The method has been applied to corpora to construct topic models. However, NMF has likelihood assumptions which are often violated by real document corpora. We present a double parametric bootstrap test for evaluating the fit of an NMF-based topic model based on the duality of the KL divergence and Poisson maximum likelihood estimation. The test correctly identifies whether a topic model based on an NMF approach yields reliable results in simulated and real data.

Using conditional probability gives Bayes Nets strong analytical advantages over traditional regression-based models. This adds to several advantages we discussed in an earlier article. But what is conditional probability and what makes it different? In short, conditional probability means that the effects of one variable depend on, of flow from, the distribution of another variable (or others). The complete state of one variable determines how another acts.

We present a robust generalization of the synthetic control method for comparative case studies. Like the classical method, we present an algorithm to estimate the unobservable counterfactual of a treatment unit. A distinguishing feature of our algorithm is that of de-noising the data matrix via singular value thresholding, which renders our approach robust in multiple facets: it automatically identifies a good subset of donors, overcomes the challenges of missing data, and continues to work well in settings where covariate information may not be provided. To begin, we establish the condition under which the fundamental assumption in synthetic control-like approaches holds, i.e. when the linear relationship between the treatment unit and the donor pool prevails in both the pre- and post-intervention periods. We provide the first finite sample analysis for a broader class of models, the Latent Variable Model, in contrast to Factor Models previously considered in the literature. Further, we show that our de-noising procedure accurately imputes missing entries, producing a consistent estimator of the underlying signal matrix provided $p = \Omega( T^{-1 + \zeta})$ for some $\zeta > 0$; here, $p$ is the fraction of observed data and $T$ is the time interval of interest. Under the same setting, we prove that the mean-squared-error (MSE) in our prediction estimation scales as $O(\sigma^2/p + 1/\sqrt{T})$, where $\sigma^2$ is the noise variance. Using a data aggregation method, we show that the MSE can be made as small as $O(T^{-1/2+\gamma})$ for any $\gamma \in (0, 1/2)$, leading to a consistent estimator. We also introduce a Bayesian framework to quantify the model uncertainty through posterior probabilities. Our experiments, using both real-world and synthetic datasets, demonstrate that our robust generalization yields an improvement over the classical synthetic control method.

We introduce the Givens Transform, a novel transform between the space of orthonormal matrices and $\mathbb{R}^D$. The Givens Transform allows for the application of any general Bayesian inference algorithm to probabilistic models containing constrained unit-vectors or orthonormal matrix parameters. This includes a variety of matrix factorizations and dimensionality reduction models such as Probabilistic PCA (PPCA), Exponential Family PPCA (BXPCA), and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). While previous Bayesian approaches to these models relied on separate sampling update rules for constrained and unconstrained parameters, the Givens Transform enables the treatment of unit-vectors and orthonormal matrices agnostically as unconstrained parameters. Thus any Bayesian inference algorithm can be used on these models without modification. This opens the door to not just sampling algorithms, but Variational Inference (VI) as well. We illustrate with several examples and supplied code, how the Givens Transform allows end-users to easily build complex models in their favorite Bayesian modeling framework such as Stan, Edward, or PyMC3, a task that was previously intractable due to technical constraints.

We present an information-theoretic framework for bounding the number of labeled samples needed to train a classifier in a parametric Bayesian setting. We derive bounds on the average $L_p$ distance between the learned classifier and the true maximum a posteriori classifier, which are well-established surrogates for the excess classification error due to imperfect learning. We provide lower and upper bounds on the rate-distortion function, using $L_p$ loss as the distortion measure, of a maximum a priori classifier in terms of the differential entropy of the posterior distribution and a quantity called the interpolation dimension, which characterizes the complexity of the parametric distribution family. In addition to expressing the information content of a classifier in terms of lossy compression, the rate-distortion function also expresses the minimum number of bits a learning machine needs to extract from training data to learn a classifier to within a specified $L_p$ tolerance. We use results from universal source coding to express the information content in the training data in terms of the Fisher information of the parametric family and the number of training samples available. The result is a framework for computing lower bounds on the Bayes $L_p$ risk. This framework complements the well-known probably approximately correct (PAC) framework, which provides minimax risk bounds involving the Vapnik-Chervonenkis dimension or Rademacher complexity. Whereas the PAC framework provides upper bounds the risk for the worst-case data distribution, the proposed rate-distortion framework lower bounds the risk averaged over the data distribution. We evaluate the bounds for a variety of data models, including categorical, multinomial, and Gaussian models. In each case the bounds are provably tight orderwise, and in two cases we prove that the bounds are tight up to multiplicative constants.