In zero-shot learning (ZSL), a classifier is trained to recognize visual classes without any image samples. Instead, it is given semantic information about the class, like a textual description or a set of attributes. Learning from attributes could benefit from explicitly modeling structure of the attribute space. Unfortunately, learning of general structure from empirical samples is hard with typical dataset sizes. Here we describe LAGO, a probabilistic model designed to capture natural soft and-or relations across groups of attributes. We show how this model can be learned end-to-end with a deep attribute-detection model. The soft group structure can be learned from data jointly as part of the model, and can also readily incorporate prior knowledge about groups if available. The soft and-or structure succeeds to capture meaningful and predictive structures, improving the accuracy of zero-shot learning on two of three benchmarks. Finally, LAGO reveals a unified formulation over two ZSL approaches: DAP (Lampert et al. 2009) and ESZSL (Romera-Paredes & Torr, 2015). Interestingly, taking only one singleton group for each attribute, introduces a new soft-relaxation of DAP, that outperforms DAP by ~40%.

During the past quarter-century, situation awareness (SAW) has become a critical research theme, because of its importance. Since the concept of SAW was first introduced during World War I, various versions of SAW have been researched and introduced. Predictive Situation Awareness (PSAW) focuses on the ability to predict aspects of a temporally evolving situation over time. PSAW requires a formal representation and a reasoning method using such a representation. A Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN) is a knowledge representation formalism combining Bayesian Networks (BN) with First-Order Logic (FOL). MEBN can be used to represent uncertain situations (supported by BN) as well as complex situations (supported by FOL). Also, efficient reasoning algorithms for MEBN have been developed. MEBN can be a formal representation to support PSAW and has been used for several PSAW systems. Although several MEBN applications for PSAW exist, very little work can be found in the literature that attempts to generalize a MEBN model to support PSAW. In this research, we define a reference model for MEBN in PSAW, called a PSAW-MEBN reference model. The PSAW-MEBN reference model enables us to easily develop a MEBN model for PSAW by supporting the design of a MEBN model for PSAW. In this research, we introduce two example use cases using the PSAW-MEBN reference model to develop MEBN models to support PSAW: a Smart Manufacturing System and a Maritime Domain Awareness System.

We investigate the problem of truth discovery based on opinions from multiple agents who may be unreliable or biased. We consider the case where agents' reliabilities or biases are correlated if they belong to the same community, which defines a group of agents with similar opinions regarding a particular event. An agent can belong to different communities for different events, and these communities are unknown \emph{a priori}. We incorporate knowledge of the agents' social network in our truth discovery framework and develop Laplace variational inference methods to estimate agents' reliabilities, communities, and the event states. We also develop a stochastic variational inference method to scale our model to large social networks. Simulations and experiments on real data suggest that when observations are sparse, our proposed methods perform better than several other inference methods, including majority voting, the popular Bayesian Classifier Combination (BCC) method, and the Community BCC method.

Many structured prediction problems (particularly in vision and language domains) are ambiguous, with multiple outputs being correct for an input - e.g. there are many ways of describing an image, multiple ways of translating a sentence; however, exhaustively annotating the applicability of all possible outputs is intractable due to exponentially large output spaces (e.g. all English sentences). In practice, these problems are cast as multi-class prediction, with the likelihood of only a sparse set of annotations being maximized - unfortunately penalizing for placing beliefs on plausible but unannotated outputs. We make and test the following hypothesis - for a given input, the annotations of its neighbors may serve as an additional supervisory signal. Specifically, we propose an objective that transfers supervision from neighboring examples. We first study the properties of our developed method in a controlled toy setup before reporting results on multi-label classification and two image-grounded sequence modeling tasks - captioning and question generation. We evaluate using standard task-specific metrics and measures of output diversity, finding consistent improvements over standard maximum likelihood training and other baselines.

Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics (SGLD) is a sampling scheme for Bayesian modeling adapted to large datasets and models. SGLD relies on the injection of Gaussian Noise at each step of a Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) update. In this scheme, every component in the noise vector is independent and has the same scale, whereas the parameters we seek to estimate exhibit strong variations in scale and significant correlation structures, leading to poor convergence and mixing times. We compare different preconditioning approaches to the normalization of the noise vector and benchmark these approaches on the following criteria: 1) mixing times of the multivariate parameter vector, 2) regularizing effect on small dataset where it is easy to overfit, 3) covariate shift detection and 4) resistance to adversarial examples.

Meta-learning for few-shot learning entails acquiring a prior over previous tasks and experiences, such that new tasks be learned from small amounts of data. However, a critical challenge in few-shot learning is task ambiguity: even when a powerful prior can be meta-learned from a large number of prior tasks, a small dataset for a new task can simply be too ambiguous to acquire a single model (e.g., a classifier) for that task that is accurate. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic meta-learning algorithm that can sample models for a new task from a model distribution. Our approach extends model-agnostic meta-learning, which adapts to new tasks via gradient descent, to incorporate a parameter distribution that is trained via a variational lower bound. At meta-test time, our algorithm adapts via a simple procedure that injects noise into gradient descent, and at meta-training time, the model is trained such that this stochastic adaptation procedure produces samples from the approximate model posterior. Our experimental results show that our method can sample plausible classifiers and regressors in ambiguous few-shot learning problems.

We introduce a new Bayesian multi-class support vector machine by formulating a pseudo-likelihood for a multi-class hinge loss in the form of a location-scale mixture of Gaussians. We derive a variational-inference-based training objective for gradient-based learning. Additionally, we employ an inducing point approximation which scales inference to large data sets. Furthermore, we develop hybrid Bayesian neural networks that combine standard deep learning components with the proposed model to enable learning for unstructured data. We provide empirical evidence that our model outperforms the competitor methods with respect to both training time and accuracy in classification experiments on 68 structured and two unstructured data sets. Finally, we highlight the key capability of our model in yielding prediction uncertainty for classification by demonstrating its effectiveness in the tasks of large-scale active learning and detection of adversarial images.

Multi-Entity Bayesian Network (MEBN) is a knowledge representation formalism combining Bayesian Networks (BN) with First-Order Logic (FOL). MEBN has sufficient expressive power for general-purpose knowledge representation and reasoning. Developing a MEBN model to support a given application is a challenge, requiring definition of entities, relationships, random variables, conditional dependence relationships, and probability distributions. When available, data can be invaluable both to improve performance and to streamline development. By far the most common format for available data is the relational database (RDB). Relational databases describe and organize data according to the Relational Model (RM). Developing a MEBN model from data stored in an RDB therefore requires mapping between the two formalisms. This paper presents MEBN-RM, a set of mapping rules between key elements of MEBN and RM. We identify links between the two languages (RM and MEBN) and define four levels of mapping from elements of RM to elements of MEBN. These definitions are implemented in the MEBN-RM algorithm, which converts a relational schema in RM to a partial MEBN model. Through this research, the software has been released as a MEBN-RM open-source software tool. The method is illustrated through two example use cases using MEBN-RM to develop MEBN models: a Critical Infrastructure Defense System and a Smart Manufacturing System.

Microbes are everywhere, including in and on our bodies, and have been shown to play key roles in a variety of prevalent human diseases. Consequently, there has been intense interest in the design of bacteriotherapies or "bugs as drugs," which are communities of bacteria administered to patients for specific therapeutic applications. Central to the design of such therapeutics is an understanding of the causal microbial interaction network and the population dynamics of the organisms. In this work we present a Bayesian nonparametric model and associated efficient inference algorithm that addresses the key conceptual and practical challenges of learning microbial dynamics from time series microbe abundance data. These challenges include high-dimensional (300+ strains of bacteria in the gut) but temporally sparse and non-uniformly sampled data; high measurement noise; and, nonlinear and physically non-negative dynamics. Our contributions include a new type of dynamical systems model for microbial dynamics based on what we term interaction modules, or learned clusters of latent variables with redundant interaction structure (reducing the expected number of interaction coefficients from $O(n^2)$ to $O((\log n)^2)$); a fully Bayesian formulation of the stochastic dynamical systems model that propagates measurement and latent state uncertainty throughout the model; and introduction of a temporally varying auxiliary variable technique to enable efficient inference by relaxing the hard non-negativity constraint on states. We apply our method to simulated and real data, and demonstrate the utility of our technique for system identification from limited data and gaining new biological insights into bacteriotherapy design.

Networks, which represent agents and interactions between them, arise in myriad applications throughout the sciences, engineering, and even the humanities. To understand large-scale structure in a network, a common task is to cluster a network's nodes into sets called "communities" such that there are dense connections within communities but sparse connections between them. A popular and statistically principled method to perform such clustering is to use a family of generative models known as stochastic block models (SBMs). In this paper, we show that maximum likelihood estimation in an SBM is a network analog of a well-known continuum surface-tension problem that arises from an application in metallurgy. To illustrate the utility of this bridge, we implement network analogs of three surface-tension algorithms, with which we successfully recover planted community structure in synthetic networks and which yield fascinating insights on empirical networks from the field of hyperspectral video segmentation.