Generating versatile and appropriate synthetic speech requires control over the output expression separate from the spoken text. Important non-textual speech variation is seldom annotated, in which case output control must be learned in an unsupervised fashion. In this paper, we perform an in-depth study of methods for unsupervised learning of control in statistical speech synthesis. For example, we show that popular unsupervised training heuristics can be interpreted as variational inference in certain autoencoder models. We additionally connect these models to VQ-VAEs, another, recently-proposed class of deep variational autoencoders, which we show can be derived from a very similar mathematical argument. The implications of these new probabilistic interpretations are discussed. We illustrate the utility of the various approaches with an application to emotional speech synthesis, where the unsupervised methods for learning expression control (without access to emotional labels) are found to give results that in many aspects match or surpass the previous best supervised approach.

We describe a general framework for probabilistic modeling of complex scenes and inference from ambiguous observations. The approach is motivated by applications in image analysis and is based on the use of priors defined by stochastic grammars. We define a class of grammars that capture relationships between the objects in a scene and provide important contextual cues for statistical inference. The distribution over scenes defined by a probabilistic scene grammar can be represented by a graphical model and this construction can be used for efficient inference with loopy belief propagation. We show experimental results with two different applications. One application involves the reconstruction of binary contour maps. Another application involves detecting and localizing faces in images. In both applications the same framework leads to robust inference algorithms that can effectively combine local information to reason about a scene.

To backpropagate the gradients through discrete stochastic layers, we encode the true gradients into a multiplication between random noises and the difference of the same function of two different sets of discrete latent variables, which are correlated with these random noises. The expectations of that multiplication over iterations are zeros combined with spikes from time to time. To modulate the frequencies, amplitudes, and signs of the spikes to capture the temporal evolution of the true gradients, we propose the augment-REINFORCE-merge (ARM) estimator that combines data augmentation, the score-function estimator, permutation of the indices of latent variables, and variance reduction for Monte Carlo integration using common random numbers. The ARM estimator provides low-variance and unbiased gradient estimates for the parameters of discrete distributions, leading to state-of-the-art performance in both auto-encoding variational Bayes and maximum likelihood inference, for discrete latent variable models with one or multiple discrete stochastic layers.

Check out the code from here. Check out the code from here. Check out the code from here. Moving forward into #100DaysOfMLCode today I dived into the deeper depth of what actually Logistic Regression is and what is the math involved behind it. Learned how cost function is calculated and then how to apply gradient descent algorithm to cost function to minimize the error in prediction.

Latent truth discovery, LTD for short, refers to the problem of aggregating ltiple claims from various sources in order to estimate the plausibility of atements about entities. In the absence of a ground truth, this problem is highly challenging, when some sources provide conflicting claims and others no claims at all. In this work we provide an unsupervised stochastic inference procedure on top of a model that combines restricted Boltzmann machines with feed-forward neural networks to accurately infer the reliability of sources as well as the plausibility of statements about entities. In comparison to prior work our approach stands out (1) by allowing the incorporation of arbitrary features about sources and claims, (2) by generalizing from reliability per source towards a reliability function, and thus (3) enabling the estimation of source reliability even for sources that have provided no or very few claims, (4) by building on efficient and scalable stochastic inference algorithms, and (5) by outperforming the state-of-the-art by a considerable margin.

Semantically understanding complex drivers' encountering behavior, wherein two or multiple vehicles are spatially close to each other, does potentially benefit autonomous car's decision-making design. This paper presents a framework of analyzing various encountering behaviors through decomposing driving encounter data into small building blocks, called driving primitives, using nonparametric Bayesian learning (NPBL) approaches, which offers a flexible way to gain an insight into the complex driving encounters without any prerequisite knowledge. The effectiveness of our proposed primitive-based framework is validated based on 976 naturalistic driving encounters, from which more than 4000 driving primitives are learned using NPBL - a sticky HDP-HMM, combined a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a hierarchical Dirichlet process (HDP). After that, a dynamic time warping method integrated with k-means clustering is then developed to cluster all these extracted driving primitives into groups. Experimental results find that there exist 20 kinds of driving primitives capable of representing the basic components of driving encounters in our database. This primitive-based analysis methodology potentially reveals underlying information of vehicle-vehicle encounters for self-driving applications.

We consider the problem of discovering the simplest latent variable that can make two observed discrete variables conditionally independent. This problem has appeared in the literature as probabilistic latent semantic analysis (pLSA), and has connections to non-negative matrix factorization. When the simplicity of the variable is measured through its cardinality, we show that a solution to this latent variable discovery problem can be used to distinguish direct causal relations from spurious correlations among almost all joint distributions on simple causal graphs with two observed variables. Conjecturing a similar identifiability result holds with Shannon entropy, we study a loss function that trades-off between entropy of the latent variable and the conditional mutual information of the observed variables. We then propose a latent variable discovery algorithm -- LatentSearch -- and show that its stationary points are the stationary points of our loss function. We experimentally show that LatentSearch can indeed be used to distinguish direct causal relations from spurious correlations.

Multi-Task Learning (MTL) is a learning paradigm in machine learning and its aim is to leverage useful information contained in multiple related tasks to help improve the generalization performance of all the tasks. In this paper, we give a survey for MTL. First, we classify different MTL algorithms into several categories, including feature learning approach, low-rank approach, task clustering approach, task relation learning approach, and decomposition approach, and then discuss the characteristics of each approach. In order to improve the performance of learning tasks further, MTL can be combined with other learning paradigms including semi-supervised learning, active learning, unsupervised learning, reinforcement learning, multi-view learning and graphical models. When the number of tasks is large or the data dimensionality is high, batch MTL models are difficult to handle this situation and online, parallel and distributed MTL models as well as dimensionality reduction and feature hashing are reviewed to reveal their computational and storage advantages. Many real-world applications use MTL to boost their performance and we review representative works. Finally, we present theoretical analyses and discuss several future directions for MTL.

We consider the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning and we show that an agent imbued with a risk-seeking utility function is able to explore efficiently, as measured by regret. The parameter that controls how risk-seeking the agent is can be optimized exactly, or annealed according to a schedule. We call the resulting algorithm K-learning and show that the corresponding K-values are optimistic for the expected Q-values at each state-action pair. The K-values induce a natural Boltzmann exploration policy for which the `temperature' parameter is equal to the risk-seeking parameter. This policy achieves an expected regret bound of $\tilde O(L^{3/2} \sqrt{S A T})$, where $L$ is the time horizon, $S$ is the number of states, $A$ is the number of actions, and $T$ is the total number of elapsed time-steps. This bound is only a factor of $L$ larger than the established lower bound. K-learning can be interpreted as mirror descent in the policy space, and it is similar to other well-known methods in the literature, including Q-learning, soft-Q-learning, and maximum entropy policy gradient, and is closely related to optimism and count based exploration methods. K-learning is simple to implement, as it only requires adding a bonus to the reward at each state-action and then solving a Bellman equation. We conclude with a numerical example demonstrating that K-learning is competitive with other state-of-the-art algorithms in practice.

Contextual multi-armed bandit problems arise frequently in important industrial applications. Existing solutions model the context either linearly, which enables uncertainty driven (principled) exploration, or non-linearly, by using epsilon-greedy exploration policies. Here we present a deep learning framework for contextual multi-armed bandits that is both non-linear and enables principled exploration at the same time. We tackle the exploration vs. exploitation trade-off through Thompson sampling by exploiting the connection between inference time dropout and sampling from the posterior over the weights of a Bayesian neural network. In order to adjust the level of exploration automatically as more data is made available to the model, the dropout rate is learned rather than considered a hyperparameter. We demonstrate that our approach substantially reduces regret on two tasks (the UCI Mushroom task and the Casino Parity task) when compared to 1) non-contextual bandits, 2) epsilon-greedy deep contextual bandits, and 3) fixed dropout rate deep contextual bandits. Our approach is currently being applied to marketing optimization problems at HubSpot.