Mastering the dynamics of social influence requires separating, in a database of information propagation traces, the genuine causal processes from temporal correlation, homophily and other spurious causes. However, most of the studies to characterize social influence and, in general, most data-science analyses focus on correlations, statistical independence, conditional independence etc.; only recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in "causal data science", e.g., grounded on causality theories. In this paper we adopt a principled causal approach to the analysis of social influence from information-propagation data, rooted in probabilistic causal theory. Our approach develops around two phases. In the first step, in order to avoid the pitfalls of misinterpreting causation when the data spans a mixture of several subtypes ("Simpson's paradox"), we partition the set of propagation traces in groups, in such a way that each group is as less contradictory as possible in terms of the hierarchical structure of information propagation. For this goal we borrow from the literature the notion of "agony" and define the Agony-bounded Partitioning problem, which we prove being hard, and for which we develop two efficient algorithms with approximation guarantees. In the second step, for each group from the first phase, we apply a constrained MLE approach to ultimately learn a minimal causal topology. Experiments on synthetic data show that our method is able to retrieve the genuine causal arcs w.r.t. a known ground-truth generative model. Experiments on real data show that, by focusing only on the extracted causal structures instead of the whole social network, we can improve the effectiveness of predicting influence spread.

Missing data imputation can help improve the performance of prediction models in situations where missing data hide useful information. This paper compares methods for imputing missing categorical data for supervised classification tasks. We experiment on two machine learning benchmark datasets with missing categorical data, comparing classifiers trained on non-imputed (i.e., one-hot encoded) or imputed data with different levels of additional missing-data perturbation. We show imputation methods can increase predictive accuracy in the presence of missing-data perturbation, which can actually improve prediction accuracy by regularizing the classifier. We achieve the state-of-the-art on the Adult dataset with missing-data perturbation and k-nearest-neighbors (k-NN) imputation.

Missing values widely exist in many real-world datasets, which hinders the performing of advanced data analytics. Properly filling these missing values is crucial but challenging, especially when the missing rate is high. Many approaches have been proposed for missing value imputation (MVI), but they are mostly heuristics-based, lacking a principled foundation and do not perform satisfactorily in practice. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework based on deep generative models for MVI. Under this framework, imputing the missing entries amounts to seeking a fixed-point solution between two conditional distributions defined on the missing entries and latent variables respectively. These distributions are parameterized by deep neural networks (DNNs) which possess high approximation power and can capture the nonlinear relationships between missing entries and the observed values. The learning of weight parameters of DNNs is performed by maximizing an approximation of the log-likelihood of observed values. We conducted extensive evaluation on 13 datasets and compared with 11 baselines methods, where our methods largely outperforms the baselines.

Neuroinform manuscript No. (will be inserted by the editor) Abstract In order to decode human brain, Multivariate Pattern (MVP) classification generates cognitive models by using functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) datasets. As a standard pipeline in the MVP analysis, brain patterns in multi-subject fMRI dataset must be mapped to a shared space and then a classification model is generated by employing the mapped patterns. However, the MVP models may not provide stable performance on a new fMRI dataset because the standard pipeline uses disjoint steps for generating these models. Indeed, each step in the pipeline includes an objective function with independent optimization approach, where the best solution of each step may not be optimum for the next steps. For tackling the mentioned issue, this paper introduces Multi-Objective Cognitive Model (MOCM) that utilizes an integrated objective function for MVP analysis rather than just using those disjoint steps. For solving the integrated problem, we proposed a customized multi-objective optimization approach, where all possible solutions are firstly generated, and then our method ranks and selects the robust solutions as the final results. Empirical studies confirm that the proposed method can generate superior performance in comparison with other techniques. Keywords Multi-Objective Cognitive Model · fMRI Analysis · Multivariate Pattern · Multi-Objective Optimization 1 Introduction One of the primary goals in neuroscience is to understand how the neural activities in the human brain can be mapped to different cognitive tasks. The authors are with the College of Computer Science and Technology, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data is an interdisciplinary technique.

Bayesian Networks have been widely used in the last decades in many fields, to describe statistical dependencies among random variables. In general, learning the structure of such models is a problem with considerable theoretical interest that still poses many challenges. On the one hand, this is a well-known NP-complete problem, which is practically hardened by the huge search space of possible solutions. On the other hand, the phenomenon of I-equivalence, i.e., different graphical structures underpinning the same set of statistical dependencies, may lead to multimodal fitness landscapes further hindering maximum likelihood approaches to solve the task. Despite all these difficulties, greedy search methods based on a likelihood score coupled with a regularization term to account for model complexity, have been shown to be surprisingly effective in practice. In this paper, we consider the formulation of the task of learning the structure of Bayesian Networks as an optimization problem based on a likelihood score. Nevertheless, our approach do not adjust this score by means of any of the complexity terms proposed in the literature; instead, it accounts directly for the complexity of the discovered solutions by exploiting a multi-objective optimization procedure. To this extent, we adopt NSGA-II and define the first objective function to be the likelihood of a solution and the second to be the number of selected arcs. We thoroughly analyze the behavior of our method on a wide set of simulated data, and we discuss the performance considering the goodness of the inferred solutions both in terms of their objective functions and with respect to the retrieved structure. Our results show that NSGA-II can converge to solutions characterized by better likelihood and less arcs than classic approaches, although paradoxically frequently characterized by a lower similarity to the target network.

Deep learning models have lately shown great performance in various fields such as computer vision, speech recognition, speech translation, and natural language processing. However, alongside their state-of-the-art performance, it is still generally unclear what is the source of their generalization ability. Thus, an important question is what makes deep neural networks able to generalize well from the training set to new data. In this article, we provide an overview of the existing theory and bounds for the characterization of the generalization error of deep neural networks, combining both classical and more recent theoretical and empirical results.

Bayesian network modelling is a well adapted approach to study messy and highly correlated datasets which are very common in, e.g., systems epidemiology. A popular approach to learn a Bayesian network from an observational datasets is to identify the maximum a posteriori network in a search-and-score approach. Many scores have been proposed both Bayesian or frequentist based. In an applied perspective, a suitable approach would allow multiple distributions for the data and is robust enough to run autonomously. A promising framework to compute scores are generalized linear models. Indeed, there exists fast algorithms for estimation and many tailored solutions to common epidemiological issues. The purpose of this paper is to present an R package abn that has an implementation of multiple frequentist scores and some realistic simulations that show its usability and performance. It includes features to deal efficiently with data separation and adjustment which are very common in systems epidemiology.

Many researches demonstrated that the DNA methylation, which occurs in the context of a CpG, has strong correlation with diseases, including cancer. There is a strong interest in analyzing the DNA methylation data to find how to distinguish different subtypes of the tumor. However, the conventional statistical methods are not suitable for analyzing the highly dimensional DNA methylation data with bounded support. In order to explicitly capture the properties of the data, we design a deep neural network, which composes of several stacked binary restricted Boltzmann machines, to learn the low dimensional deep features of the DNA methylation data. Experiments show these features perform best in breast cancer DNA methylation data cluster analysis, comparing with some state-of-the-art methods.

In supervised machine learning for author name disambiguation, negative training data are often dominantly larger than positive training data. This paper examines how the ratios of negative to positive training data can affect the performance of machine learning algorithms to disambiguate author names in bibliographic records. On multiple labeled datasets, three classifiers - Logistic Regression, Na\"ive Bayes, and Random Forest - are trained through representative features such as coauthor names, and title words extracted from the same training data but with various positive-negative training data ratios. Results show that increasing negative training data can improve disambiguation performance but with a few percent of performance gains and sometimes degrade it. Logistic Regression and Na\"ive Bayes learn optimal disambiguation models even with a base ratio (1:1) of positive and negative training data. Also, the performance improvement by Random Forest tends to quickly saturate roughly after 1:10 ~ 1:15. These findings imply that contrary to the common practice using all training data, name disambiguation algorithms can be trained using part of negative training data without degrading much disambiguation performance while increasing computational efficiency. This study calls for more attention from author name disambiguation scholars to methods for machine learning from imbalanced data.

Bayesian inference plays an important role in advancing machine learning, but faces computational challenges when applied to complex models such as deep neural networks. Variational inference circumvents these challenges by formulating Bayesian inference as an optimization problem and solving it using gradient-based optimization. In this paper, we argue in favor of natural-gradient approaches which, unlike their gradient-based counterparts, can improve convergence by exploiting the information geometry of the solutions. We show how to derive fast yet simple natural-gradient updates by using a duality associated with exponential-family distributions. An attractive feature of these methods is that, by using natural-gradients, they are able to extract accurate local approximations for individual model components. We summarize recent results for Bayesian deep learning showing the superiority of natural-gradient approaches over their gradient counterparts.