Importance sampling is one of the most widely used variance reduction strategies in Monte Carlo rendering. In this paper, we propose a novel importance sampling technique that uses a neural network to learn how to sample from a desired density represented by a set of samples. Our approach considers an existing Monte Carlo rendering algorithm as a black box. During a scene-dependent training phase, we learn to generate samples with a desired density in the primary sample space of the rendering algorithm using maximum likelihood estimation. We leverage a recent neural network architecture that was designed to represent real-valued non-volume preserving ('Real NVP') transformations in high dimensional spaces. We use Real NVP to non-linearly warp primary sample space and obtain desired densities. In addition, Real NVP efficiently computes the determinant of the Jacobian of the warp, which is required to implement the change of integration variables implied by the warp. A main advantage of our approach is that it is agnostic of underlying light transport effects, and can be combined with many existing rendering techniques by treating them as a black box. We show that our approach leads to effective variance reduction in several practical scenarios.

Understanding the diffusion in social network is an important task. However, this task is challenging since (1) the network structure is usually hidden with only observations of events like "post" or "repost" associated with each node, and (2) the interactions between nodes encompass multiple distinct patterns which in turn affect the diffusion patterns. For instance, social interactions seldom develop on a single channel, and multiple relationships can bind pairs of people due to their various common interests. Most previous work considers only one of these two challenges which is apparently unrealistic. In this paper, we study the problem of \emph{inferring multiplex network} in social networks. We propose the Multiplex Diffusion Model (MDM) which incorporates the multivariate marked Hawkes process and topic model to infer the multiplex structure of social network. A MCMC based algorithm is developed to infer the latent multiplex structure and to estimate the node-related parameters. We evaluate our model based on both synthetic and real-world datasets. The results show that our model is more effective in terms of uncovering the multiplex network structure.

The exponential growth in the number of complex datasets every year requires more enhancement in machine learning methods to provide robust and accurate data classification. Lately, deep learning approaches have achieved surpassing results in comparison to previous machine learning algorithms. However, finding the suitable structure for these models has been a challenge for researchers. This paper introduces Random Multimodel Deep Learning (RMDL): a new ensemble, deep learning approach for classification. RMDL solves the problem of finding the best deep learning structure and architecture while simultaneously improving robustness and accuracy through ensembles of deep learning architectures. In short, RMDL trains multiple randomly generated models of Deep Neural Network (DNN), Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) in parallel and combines their results to produce better result of any of those models individually. In this paper, we describe RMDL model and compare the results for image and text classification as well as face recognition. We used MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets as ground truth datasets for image classification and WOS, Reuters, IMDB, and 20newsgroup datasets for text classification. Lastly, we used ORL dataset to compare the model performance on face recognition task.

Internet market makers are always facing intense competitive environment, where personalized price reductions or discounted coupons are provided for attracting more customers. Participants in such a price war scenario have to invest a lot to catch up with other competitors. However, such a huge cost of money may not always lead to an improvement of market share. This is mainly due to a lack of information about others' strategies or customers' willingness when participants develop their strategies. In order to obtain this hidden information through observable data, we study the relationship between companies and customers in the Internet price war. Theoretically, we provide a formalization of the problem as a stochastic game with imperfect and incomplete information. Then we develop a variant of Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) to infer latent variables under the current market environment, which represents the preferences of customers and strategies of competitors. To our best knowledge, it is the first time that LDA is applied to game scenario. We conduct simulated experiments where our LDA model exhibits a significant improvement on finding strategies in the Internet price war by including all available market information of the market maker's competitors. And the model is applied to an open dataset for real business. Through comparisons on the likelihood of prediction for users' behavior and distribution distance between inferred opponent's strategy and the real one, our model is shown to be able to provide a better understanding for the market environment. Our work marks a successful learning method to infer latent information in the environment of price war by the LDA modeling, and sets an example for related competitive applications to follow.

Finding regions for which there is higher controversy among different classifiers is insightful with regards to the domain and our models. Such evaluation can falsify assumptions, assert some, or also, bring to the attention unknown phenomena. The present work describes an algorithm, which is based on the Exceptional Model Mining framework, and enables that kind of investigations. We explore several public datasets and show the usefulness of this approach in classification tasks. We show in this paper a few interesting observations about those well explored datasets, some of which are general knowledge, and other that as far as we know, were not reported before.

Spatiotemporal systems are common in the real-world. Forecasting the multi-step future of these spatiotemporal systems based on the past observations, or, Spatiotemporal Sequence Forecasting (STSF), is a significant and challenging problem. Although lots of real-world problems can be viewed as STSF and many research works have proposed machine learning based methods for them, no existing work has summarized and compared these methods from a unified perspective. This survey aims to provide a systematic review of machine learning for STSF. In this survey, we define the STSF problem and classify it into three subcategories: Trajectory Forecasting of Moving Point Cloud (TF-MPC), STSF on Regular Grid (STSF-RG) and STSF on Irregular Grid (STSF-IG). We then introduce the two major challenges of STSF: 1) how to learn a model for multi-step forecasting and 2) how to adequately model the spatial and temporal structures. After that, we review the existing works for solving these challenges, including the general learning strategies for multi-step forecasting, the classical machine learning based methods for STSF, and the deep learning based methods for STSF. We also compare these methods and point out some potential research directions.

Population synthesis is concerned with the generation of synthetic yet realistic representations of populations. It is a fundamental problem in the modeling of transport where the synthetic populations of micro agents represent a key input to most agent-based models. In this paper, a new methodological framework for how to grow pools of micro agents is presented. This is accomplished by adopting a deep generative modeling approach from machine learning based on a Variational Autoencoder (VAE) framework. Compared to the previous population synthesis approaches based on Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF), Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling or traditional generative models, the proposed method allows unparalleled scalability with respect to the number and types of attributes. In contrast to the approaches that rely on approximating the joint distribution in the observed data space, VAE learns its compressed latent representation. The advantage of the compressed representation is that it avoids the problem of the generated samples being trapped in local minima when the number of attributes becomes large. The problem is illustrated using the Danish National Travel Survey data, where the Gibbs sampler fails to generate a population with 21 attributes (corresponding to the 121-dimensional joint distribution). At the same time, VAE shows acceptable performance when 47 attributes (corresponding to the 357-dimensional joint distribution) are used. Moreover, VAE allows for growing agents that are virtually different from those in the original data but have similar statistical properties and correlation structure. The presented approach will help modelers to generate better and richer populations with a high level of detail, including smaller zones, personal details and travel preferences.

Probabilistic graphical models compactly represent joint distributions by decomposing them into factors over subsets of random variables. In Bayesian networks, the factors are conditional probability distributions. For many problems, common information exists among those factors. Adding similarity restrictions can be viewed as imposing prior knowledge for model regularization. With proper restrictions, learned models usually generalize better. In this work, we study methods that exploit such high-level similarities to regularize the learning process and apply them to the task of modeling the wave propagation in inhomogeneous media. We propose a novel distribution-based penalization approach that encourages similar conditional probability distribution rather than force the parameters to be similar explicitly. We show in experiment that our proposed algorithm solves the modeling wave propagation problem, which other baseline methods are not able to solve.

With the increasing need of personalised decision making, such as personalised medicine and online recommendations, a growing attention has been paid to the discovery of the context and heterogeneity of causal relationships. Most existing methods, however, assume a known cause (e.g. a new drug) and focus on identifying from data the contexts of heterogeneous effects of the cause (e.g. patient groups with different responses to the new drug). There is no approach to efficiently detecting directly from observational data context specific causal relationships, i.e. discovering the causes and their contexts simultaneously. In this paper, by taking the advantages of highly efficient decision tree induction and the well established causal inference framework, we propose the Tree based Context Causal rule discovery (TCC) method, for efficient exploration of context specific causal relationships from data. Experiments with both synthetic and real world data sets show that TCC can effectively discover context specific causal rules from the data.

It is conventional wisdom in machine learning and data mining that logical models such as rule sets are more interpretable than other models, and that among such rule-based models, simpler models are more interpretable than more complex ones. In this position paper, we question this latter assumption by focusing on one particular aspect of interpretability, namely the plausibility of models. Roughly speaking, we equate the plausibility of a model with the likeliness that a user accepts it as an explanation for a prediction. In particular, we argue that, all other things being equal, longer explanations may be more convincing than shorter ones, and that the predominant bias for shorter models, which is typically necessary for learning powerful discriminative models, may not be suitable when it comes to user acceptance of the learned models. To that end, we first recapitulate evidence for and against this postulate, and then report the results of an evaluation in a crowd-sourcing study based on about 3.000 judgments. The results do not reveal a strong preference for simple rules, whereas we can observe a weak preference for longer rules in some domains. We then relate these results to well-known cognitive biases such as the conjunction fallacy, the representative heuristic, or the recogition heuristic, and investigate their relation to rule length and plausibility.