In this paper we study the problem of making predictions using multiple structural casual models defined by different agents, under the constraint that the prediction satisfies the criterion of counterfactual fairness. Relying on the frameworks of causality, fairness and opinion pooling, we build upon and extend previous work focusing on the qualitative aggregation of causal Bayesian networks and causal models. In order to complement previous qualitative results, we devise a method based on Monte Carlo simulations. This method enables a decision-maker to aggregate the outputs of the causal models provided by different experts while guaranteeing the counterfactual fairness of the result. We demonstrate our approach on a simple, yet illustrative, toy case study.

Existing Bayesian treatments of neural networks are typically characterized by weak prior and approximate posterior distributions according to which all the weights are drawn independently. Here, we consider a richer prior distribution in which units in the network are represented by latent variables, and the weights between units are drawn conditionally on the values of the collection of those variables. This allows rich correlations between related weights, and can be seen as realizing a function prior with a Bayesian complexity regularizer ensuring simple solutions. We illustrate the resulting meta-representations and representations, elucidating the power of this prior.

The use of imitation learning to learn a single policy for a complex task that has multiple modes or hierarchical structure can be challenging. In fact, previous work has shown that when the modes are known, learning separate policies for each mode or sub-task can greatly improve the performance of imitation learning. In this work, we discover the interaction between sub-tasks from their resulting state-action trajectory sequences using a directed graphical model. We propose a new algorithm based on the generative adversarial imitation learning framework which automatically learns sub-task policies from unsegmented demonstrations. Our approach maximizes the directed information flow in the graphical model between sub-task latent variables and their generated trajectories. We also show how our approach connects with the existing Options framework, which is commonly used to learn hierarchical policies.

Abstract--In this paper we address the problem of tracking multiple speakers via the fusion of visual and auditory information. We propose to exploit the complementary nature of these two modalities in order to accurately estimate smooth trajectories of the tracked persons, to deal with the partial or total absence of one of the modalities over short periods of time, and to estimate the acoustic status - either speaking or silent - of each tracked person along time. We propose to cast the problem at hand into a generative audiovisual fusion (or association) model formulated as a latent-variable temporal graphical model. This may well be viewed as the problem of maximizing the posterior joint distribution of a set of continuous and discrete latent variables given the past and current observations, which is intractable. We propose a variational inference model which amounts to approximate the joint distribution with a factorized distribution. The solution takes the form of a closed-form expectation maximization procedure. We describe in detail the inference algorithm, we evaluate its performance and we compare it with several baseline methods. These experiments show that the proposed audiovisual tracker performs well in informal meetings involving a time-varying number of people. Index Terms--Audiovisual tracking, multiple object tracking, dynamic Bayesian networks, variational inference, expectationmaximization, speaker diarization. In this paper we address the problem of tracking multiple speakers via the fusion of visual and auditory information [1]- [7]. We propose to exploit the complementary nature of these two modalities in order to accurately estimate the position of each person at each time step, to deal with the partial or total absence of one of the modalities over short periods of time, and to estimate the acoustic status, either speaking or silent, of each tracked person. We propose to cast the problem at hand into a generative audiovisual fusion (or association) model formulated as a latent-variable temporal graphical model. We propose a tractable solver via a variational approximation.

Thanks to the availability of large scale digital datasets and massive amounts of computational power, deep learning algorithms can learn representations of data by exploiting multiple levels of abstraction. These machine learning methods have greatly improved the state-of-the-art in many challenging cognitive tasks, such as visual object recognition, speech processing, natural language understanding and automatic translation. In particular, one class of deep learning models, known as deep belief networks, can discover intricate statistical structure in large data sets in a completely unsupervised fashion, by learning a generative model of the data using Hebbian-like learning mechanisms. Although these self-organizing systems can be conveniently formalized within the framework of statistical mechanics, their internal functioning remains opaque, because their emergent dynamics cannot be solved analytically. In this article we propose to study deep belief networks using techniques commonly employed in the study of complex networks, in order to gain some insights into the structural and functional properties of the computational graph resulting from the learning process.

Optimal treatment regimes (OTR) are individualised treatment assignment strategies that identify a medical treatment as optimal given all background information available on the individual. We discuss Bayes optimal treatment regimes estimated using a loss function defined on the bivariate distribution of dichotomous potential outcomes. The proposed approach allows considering more general objectives for the OTR than maximization of an expected outcome (e.g., survival probability) by taking into account, for example, unnecessary treatment burden. As a motivating example we consider the case of oropharynx cancer treatment where unnecessary burden due to chemotherapy is to be avoided while maximizing survival chances. Assuming ignorable treatment assignment we describe Bayesian inference about the OTR including a sensitivity analysis on the unobserved partial association of the potential outcomes. We evaluate the methodology by simulations that apply Bayesian parametric and more flexible non-parametric outcome models. The proposed OTR for oropharynx cancer reduces the frequency of the more burdensome chemotherapy assignment by approximately 75% without reducing the average survival probability. This regime thus offers a strong increase in expected quality of life of patients.

Establishing unique identities for both humans and end systems has been an active research problem in the security community, giving rise to innovative machine learning-based authentication techniques. Although such techniques offer an automated method to establish identity, they have not been vetted against sophisticated attacks that target their core machine learning technique. This paper demonstrates that mimicking the unique signatures generated by host fingerprinting and biometric authentication systems is possible. We expose the ineffectiveness of underlying machine learning classification models by constructing a blind attack based around the query synthesis framework and utilizing Explainable-AI (XAI) techniques. We launch an attack in under 130 queries on a state-of-the-art face authentication system, and under 100 queries on a host authentication system. We examine how these attacks can be defended against and explore their limitations. XAI provides an effective means for adversaries to infer decision boundaries and provides a new way forward in constructing attacks against systems using machine learning models for authentication.

I have tried to keep things simple and in plain-English. The sole purpose is to deeply and clearly understand the working of a well know Text Classification ML Algorithm (Naïve Bayes) without being trapped in the gibberish mathematical jargon that is often used in the explanation of ML Algorithms which obviously lands you nowhere except for being relying on ML API's with almost zero understanding of how the things actually work! A complete clear picture of the Naïve Bayes ML Algorithm with all its mysterious mathematics demystified plus a concrete step taken forward in your ML voyage! The Grand Grand Grand Milestone # 3: The Testing Phase --Where Prediction Comes into the Play! Naive Bayes is one of the most common ML algorithms that is often used for the purpose of text classification.

We present an adaptive approach to the construction of Gaussian process surrogates for Bayesian inference with expensive-to-evaluate forward models. Our method relies on the fully Bayesian approach to training Gaussian process models and utilizes the expected improvement idea from Bayesian global optimization. We adaptively construct training designs by maximizing the expected improvement in fit of the Gaussian process model to the noisy observational data. Numerical experiments on model problems with synthetic data demonstrate the effectiveness of the obtained adaptive designs compared to the fixed non-adaptive designs in terms of accurate posterior estimation at a fraction of the cost of inference with forward models.

The accuracy of probability distributions inferred using machine-learning algorithms heavily depends on data availability and quality. In practical applications it is therefore fundamental to investigate the robustness of a statistical model to misspecification of some of its underlying probabilities. In the context of graphical models, investigations of robustness fall under the notion of sensitivity analyses. These analyses consist in varying some of the model's probabilities or parameters and then assessing how far apart the original and the varied distributions are. However, for Gaussian graphical models, such variations usually make the original graph an incoherent representation of the model's conditional independence structure. Here we develop an approach to sensitivity analysis which guarantees the original graph remains valid after any probability variation and we quantify the effect of such variations using different measures. To achieve this we take advantage of algebraic techniques to both concisely represent conditional independence and to provide a straightforward way of checking the validity of such relationships. Our methods are demonstrated to be robust and comparable to standard ones, which break the conditional independence structure of the model, using an artificial example and a medical real-world application.