Stochastic partition models divide a multi-dimensional space into a number of rectangular regions, such that the data within each region exhibit certain types of homogeneity. Due to the nature of their partition strategy, existing partition models may create many unnecessary divisions in sparse regions when trying to describe data in dense regions. To avoid this problem we introduce a new parsimonious partition model -- the Rectangular Bounding Process (RBP) -- to efficiently partition multi-dimensional spaces, by employing a bounding strategy to enclose data points within rectangular bounding boxes. Unlike existing approaches, the RBP possesses several attractive theoretical properties that make it a powerful nonparametric partition prior on a hypercube. In particular, the RBP is self-consistent and as such can be directly extended from a finite hypercube to infinite (unbounded) space. We apply the RBP to regression trees and relational models as a flexible partition prior. The experimental results validate the merit of the RBP {in rich yet parsimonious expressiveness} compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

Due to the inherent model uncertainty, learning to infer Bayesian posterior from a few-shot dataset is an important step towards robust meta-learning. In this paper, we propose a novel Bayesian model-agnostic meta-learning method. The proposed method combines efficient gradient-based meta-learning with nonparametric variational inference in a principled probabilistic framework. Unlike previous methods, during fast adaptation, the method is capable of learning complex uncertainty structure beyond a simple Gaussian approximation, and during meta-update, a novel Bayesian mechanism prevents meta-level overfitting. Remaining a gradient-based method, it is also the first Bayesian model-agnostic meta-learning method applicable to various tasks including reinforcement learning. Experiment results show the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method in sinusoidal regression, image classification, active learning, and reinforcement learning.

Implicit feedback, such as user clicks, although abundant in online information service systems, does not provide substantial evidence on users' evaluation of system's output. Without proper modeling, such incomplete supervision inevitably misleads model estimation, especially in a bandit learning setting where the feedback is acquired on the fly. In this work, we perform contextual bandit learning with implicit feedback by modeling the feedback as a composition of user result examination and relevance judgment. Since users' examination behavior is unobserved, we introduce latent variables to model it. We perform Thompson sampling on top of variational Bayesian inference for arm selection and model update. Our upper regret bound analysis of the proposed algorithm proves its feasibility of learning from implicit feedback in a bandit setting; and extensive empirical evaluations on click logs collected from a major MOOC platform further demonstrate its learning effectiveness in practice.

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible \emph{data uncertainty} and uncertainty due to distributional mismatch between the test and training data distributions. Different actions might be taken depending on the source of the uncertainty so it is important to be able to distinguish between them. Recently, baseline tasks and metrics have been defined and several practical methods to estimate uncertainty developed. These methods, however, attempt to model uncertainty due to distributional mismatch either implicitly through \emph{model uncertainty} or as \emph{data uncertainty}. This work proposes a new framework for modeling predictive uncertainty called Prior Networks (PNs) which explicitly models \emph{distributional uncertainty}. PNs do this by parameterizing a prior distribution over predictive distributions. This work focuses on uncertainty for classification and evaluates PNs on the tasks of identifying out-of-distribution (OOD) samples and detecting misclassification on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, where they are found to outperform previous methods. Experiments on synthetic and MNIST and CIFAR-10 data show that unlike previous non-Bayesian methods PNs are able to distinguish between data and distributional uncertainty.

Discovering the causal structure among a set of variables is a fundamental problem in many areas of science. In this paper, we propose Kernel Conditional Deviance for Causal Inference (KCDC) a fully nonparametric causal discovery method based on purely observational data. From a novel interpretation of the notion of asymmetry between cause and effect, we derive a corresponding asymmetry measure using the framework of reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Based on this, we propose three decision rules for causal discovery. We demonstrate the wide applicability and robustness of our method across a range of diverse synthetic datasets. Furthermore, we test our method on real-world time series data and the real-world benchmark dataset Tübingen Cause-Effect Pairs where we outperform state-of-the-art approaches.

Stochastic gradient Markov chain Monte Carlo (SGMCMC) has become a popular method for scalable Bayesian inference. These methods are based on sampling a discrete-time approximation to a continuous time process, such as the Langevin diffusion. When applied to distributions defined on a constrained space the time-discretization error can dominate when we are near the boundary of the space. We demonstrate that because of this, current SGMCMC methods for the simplex struggle with sparse simplex spaces; when many of the components are close to zero. Unfortunately, many popular large-scale Bayesian models, such as network or topic models, require inference on sparse simplex spaces. To avoid the biases caused by this discretization error, we propose the stochastic Cox-Ingersoll-Ross process (SCIR), which removes all discretization error and we prove that samples from the SCIR process are asymptotically unbiased. We discuss how this idea can be extended to target other constrained spaces. Use of the SCIR process within a SGMCMC algorithm is shown to give substantially better performance for a topic model and a Dirichlet process mixture model than existing SGMCMC approaches.

We introduce a new family of deep neural network models. Instead of specifying a discrete sequence of hidden layers, we parameterize the derivative of the hidden state using a neural network. The output of the network is computed using a blackbox differential equation solver. These continuous-depth models have constant memory cost, adapt their evaluation strategy to each input, and can explicitly trade numerical precision for speed. We demonstrate these properties in continuous-depth residual networks and continuous-time latent variable models. We also construct continuous normalizing flows, a generative model that can train by maximum likelihood, without partitioning or ordering the data dimensions. For training, we show how to scalably backpropagate through any ODE solver, without access to its internal operations. This allows end-to-end training of ODEs within larger models.

We consider the problem of transferring value functions in reinforcement learning. We propose an approach that uses the given source tasks to learn a prior distribution over optimal value functions and provide an efficient variational approximation of the corresponding posterior in a new target task. We show our approach to be general, in the sense that it can be combined with complex parametric function approximators and distribution models, while providing two practical algorithms based on Gaussians and Gaussian mixtures. We theoretically analyze them by deriving a finite-sample analysis and provide a comprehensive empirical evaluation in four different domains.

We propose Graphical Generative Adversarial Networks (Graphical-GAN) to model structured data. Graphical-GAN conjoins the power of Bayesian networks on compactly representing the dependency structures among random variables and that of generative adversarial networks on learning expressive dependency functions. We introduce a structured recognition model to infer the posterior distribution of latent variables given observations. We generalize the Expectation Propagation (EP) algorithm to learn the generative model and recognition model jointly. Finally, we present two important instances of Graphical-GAN, i.e. Gaussian Mixture GAN (GMGAN) and State Space GAN (SSGAN), which can successfully learn the discrete and temporal structures on visual datasets, respectively.

Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool for global optimization of expensive functions. One of its key components is the underlying probabilistic model used for the objective function f. In practice, however, it is often unclear how one should appropriately choose a model, especially when gathering data is expensive. In this work, we introduce a novel automated Bayesian optimization approach that dynamically selects promising models for explaining the observed data using Bayesian Optimization in the model space. Crucially, we account for the uncertainty in the choice of model; our method is capable of using multiple models to represent its current belief about f and subsequently using this information for decision making. We argue, and demonstrate empirically, that our approach automatically finds suitable models for the objective function, which ultimately results in more-efficient optimization.