Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible \emph{data uncertainty} and uncertainty due to distributional mismatch between the test and training data distributions. Different actions might be taken depending on the source of the uncertainty so it is important to be able to distinguish between them. Recently, baseline tasks and metrics have been defined and several practical methods to estimate uncertainty developed. These methods, however, attempt to model uncertainty due to distributional mismatch either implicitly through \emph{model uncertainty} or as \emph{data uncertainty}. This work proposes a new framework for modeling predictive uncertainty called Prior Networks (PNs) which explicitly models \emph{distributional uncertainty}. PNs do this by parameterizing a prior distribution over predictive distributions. This work focuses on uncertainty for classification and evaluates PNs on the tasks of identifying out-of-distribution (OOD) samples and detecting misclassification on the MNIST and CIFAR-10 datasets, where they are found to outperform previous methods. Experiments on synthetic and MNIST and CIFAR-10 data show that unlike previous non-Bayesian methods PNs are able to distinguish between data and distributional uncertainty.

Electronic health records provide a rich source of data for machine learning methods to learn dynamic treatment responses over time. However, any direct estimation is hampered by the presence of time-dependent confounding, where actions taken are dependent on time-varying variables related to the outcome of interest. Drawing inspiration from marginal structural models, a class of methods in epidemiology which use propensity weighting to adjust for time-dependent confounders, we introduce the Recurrent Marginal Structural Network - a sequence-to-sequence architecture for forecasting a patient's expected response to a series of planned treatments.

Deterministic neural nets have been shown to learn effective predictors on a wide range of machine learning problems. However, as the standard approach is to train the network to minimize a prediction loss, the resultant model remains ignorant to its prediction confidence. Orthogonally to Bayesian neural nets that indirectly infer prediction uncertainty through weight uncertainties, we propose explicit modeling of the same using the theory of subjective logic. By placing a Dirichlet distribution on the class probabilities, we treat predictions of a neural net as subjective opinions and learn the function that collects the evidence leading to these opinions by a deterministic neural net from data. The resultant predictor for a multi-class classification problem is another Dirichlet distribution whose parameters are set by the continuous output of a neural net. We provide a preliminary analysis on how the peculiarities of our new loss function drive improved uncertainty estimation. We observe that our method achieves unprecedented success on detection of out-of-distribution queries and endurance against adversarial perturbations.

We address the problem of regret minimization in logistic contextual bandits, where a learner decides among sequential actions or arms given their respective contexts to maximize binary rewards. Using a fast inference procedure with Polya-Gamma distributed augmentation variables, we propose an improved version of Thompson Sampling, a Bayesian formulation of contextual bandits with near-optimal performance. Our approach, Polya-Gamma augmented Thompson Sampling (PG-TS), achieves state-of-the-art performance on simulated and real data. PG-TS explores the action space efficiently and exploits high-reward arms, quickly converging to solutions of low regret. Its explicit estimation of the posterior distribution of the context feature covariance leads to substantial empirical gains over approximate approaches. PG-TS is the first approach to demonstrate the benefits of Polya-Gamma augmentation in bandits and to propose an efficient Gibbs sampler for approximating the analytically unsolvable integral of logistic contextual bandits.

It is well known that the problems of stochastic planning and probabilistic inference are closely related. This paper makes two contributions in this context. The first is to provide an analysis of the recently developed SOGBOFA heuristic planning algorithm that was shown to be effective for problems with large factored state and action spaces. It is shown that SOGBOFA can be seen as a specialized inference algorithm that computes its solutions through a combination of a symbolic variant of belief propagation and gradient ascent. The second contribution is a new solver for Marginal MAP (MMAP) inference. We introduce a new reduction from MMAP to maximum expected utility problems which are suitable for the symbolic computation in SOGBOFA. This yields a novel algebraic gradient-based solver (AGS) for MMAP. An experimental evaluation illustrates the potential of AGS in solving difficult MMAP problems.

Learning to make decisions from observed data in dynamic environments remains a problem of fundamental importance in a numbers of fields, from artificial intelligence and robotics, to medicine and finance. This paper concerns the problem of learning control policies for unknown linear dynamical systems so as to maximize a quadratic reward function. We present a method to optimize the expected value of the reward over the posterior distribution of the unknown system parameters, given data. The algorithm involves sequential convex programing, and enjoys reliable local convergence and robust stability guarantees. Numerical simulations and stabilization of a real-world inverted pendulum are used to demonstrate the approach, with strong performance and robustness properties observed in both.

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can attain excellent sample efficiency, but often lag behind the best model-free algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance. This is especially true with high-capacity parametric function approximators, such as deep networks. In this paper, we study how to bridge this gap, by employing uncertainty-aware dynamics models. We propose a new algorithm called probabilistic ensembles with trajectory sampling (PETS) that combines uncertainty-aware deep network dynamics models with sampling-based uncertainty propagation. Our comparison to state-of-the-art model-based and model-free deep RL algorithms shows that our approach matches the asymptotic performance of model-free algorithms on several challenging benchmark tasks, while requiring significantly fewer samples (e.g., 8 and 125 times fewer samples than Soft Actor Critic and Proximal Policy Optimization respectively on the half-cheetah task).

We consider the problem of estimating the differences between two causal directed acyclic graph (DAG) models with a shared topological order given i.i.d. samples from each model. This is of interest for example in genomics, where changes in the structure or edge weights of the underlying causal graphs reflect alterations in the gene regulatory networks. We here provide the first provably consistent method for directly estimating the differences in a pair of causal DAGs without separately learning two possibly large and dense DAG models and computing their difference. Our two-step algorithm first uses invariance tests between regression coefficients of the two data sets to estimate the skeleton of the difference graph and then orients some of the edges using invariance tests between regression residual variances. We demonstrate the properties of our method through a simulation study and apply it to the analysis of gene expression data from ovarian cancer and during T-cell activation.

To date, research effort has largely focussed on the development of Bayesian cubature, whose distributional output provides uncertainty quantification for the integral. However, the point estimators associated to Bayesian cubature can be inaccurate and acutely sensitive to the prior when the domain is high-dimensional. To address these drawbacks we introduce Bayes-Sard cubature, a probabilistic framework that combines the flexibility of Bayesian cubature with the robustness of classical cubatures which are well-established. This is achieved by considering a Gaussian process model for the integrand whose mean is a parametric regression model, with an improper prior on each regression coefficient. The features in the regression model consist of test functions which are guaranteed to be exactly integrated, with remaining degrees of freedom afforded to the non-parametric part. The asymptotic convergence of the Bayes-Sard cubature method is established and the theoretical results are numerically verified. In particular, we report two orders of magnitude reduction in error compared to Bayesian cubature in the context of a high-dimensional financial integral.

We investigate the problem of learning Bayesian networks in a robust model where an $\epsilon$-fraction of the samples are adversarially corrupted. In this work, we study the fully observable discrete case where the structure of the network is given. Even in this basic setting, previous learning algorithms either run in exponential time or lose dimension-dependent factors in their error guarantees. We provide the first computationally efficient robust learning algorithm for this problem with dimension-independent error guarantees. Our algorithm has near-optimal sample complexity, runs in polynomial time, and achieves error that scales nearly-linearly with the fraction of adversarially corrupted samples. Finally, we show on both synthetic and semi-synthetic data that our algorithm performs well in practice.