Quantum Graphical Models (QGMs) generalize classical graphical models by adopting the formalism for reasoning about uncertainty from quantum mechanics. Unlike classical graphical models, QGMs represent uncertainty with density matrices in complex Hilbert spaces. Hilbert space embeddings (HSEs) also generalize Bayesian inference in Hilbert spaces. We investigate the link between QGMs and HSEs and show that the sum rule and Bayes rule for QGMs are equivalent to the kernel sum rule in HSEs and a special case of Nadaraya-Watson kernel regression, respectively. We show that these operations can be kernelized, and use these insights to propose a Hilbert Space Embedding of Hidden Quantum Markov Models (HSE-HQMM) to model dynamics. We present experimental results showing that HSE-HQMMs are competitive with state-of-the-art models like LSTMs and PSRNNs on several datasets, while also providing a nonparametric method for maintaining a probability distribution over continuous-valued features.

Solomonoff's general theory of inference (Solomonoff, 1964) and the Minimum Description Length principle (Grünwald, 2007; Rissanen, 2007) formalize Occam's razor, and hold that a good model of data is a model that is good at losslessly compressing the data, including the cost of describing the model itself. Deep neural networks might seem to go against this principle given the large number of parameters to be encoded. We demonstrate experimentally the ability of deep neural networks to compress the training data even when accounting for parameter encoding. The compression viewpoint originally motivated the use of variational methods in neural networks (Hinton and Van Camp, 1993; Schmidhuber, 1997). Unexpectedly, we found that these variational methods provide surprisingly poor compression bounds, despite being explicitly built to minimize such bounds. This might explain the relatively poor practical performance of variational methods in deep learning. On the other hand, simple incremental encoding methods yield excellent compression values on deep networks, vindicating Solomonoff's approach.

We propose a new approach, called cooperative neural networks (CoNN), which use a set of cooperatively trained neural networks to capture latent representations that exploit prior given independence structure. The model is more flexible than traditional graphical models based on exponential family distributions, but incorporates more domain specific prior structure than traditional deep networks or variational autoencoders. The framework is very general and can be used to exploit the independence structure of any graphical model. We illustrate the technique by showing that we can transfer the independence structure of the popular Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) model to a cooperative neural network, CoNN-sLDA. Empirical evaluation of CoNN-sLDA on supervised text classification tasks demonstrate that the theoretical advantages of prior independence structure can be realized in practice - we demonstrate a 23 percent reduction in error on the challenging MultiSent data set compared to state-of-the-art.

Recently, considerable research effort has been devoted to developing deep architectures for topic models to learn topic structures. Although several deep models have been proposed to learn better topic proportions of documents, how to leverage the benefits of deep structures for learning word distributions of topics has not yet been rigorously studied. Here we propose a new multi-layer generative process on word distributions of topics, where each layer consists of a set of topics and each topic is drawn from a mixture of the topics of the layer above. As the topics in all layers can be directly interpreted by words, the proposed model is able to discover interpretable topic hierarchies. As a self-contained module, our model can be flexibly adapted to different kinds of topic models to improve their modelling accuracy and interpretability. Extensive experiments on text corpora demonstrate the advantages of the proposed model.

Incentive mechanisms for crowdsourcing are designed to incentivize financially self-interested workers to generate and report high-quality labels. Existing mechanisms are often developed as one-shot static solutions, assuming a certain level of knowledge about worker models (expertise levels, costs for exerting efforts, etc.). In this paper, we propose a novel inference aided reinforcement mechanism that acquires data sequentially and requires no such prior assumptions. Specifically, we first design a Gibbs sampling augmented Bayesian inference algorithm to estimate workers' labeling strategies from the collected labels at each step. Then we propose a reinforcement incentive learning (RIL) method, building on top of the above estimates, to uncover how workers respond to different payments. RIL dynamically determines the payment without accessing any ground-truth labels. We theoretically prove that RIL is able to incentivize rational workers to provide high-quality labels both at each step and in the long run. Empirical results show that our mechanism performs consistently well under both rational and non-fully rational (adaptive learning) worker models. Besides, the payments offered by RIL are more robust and have lower variances compared to existing one-shot mechanisms.

Bayesian learning is built on an assumption that the model space contains a true reflection of the data generating mechanism. This assumption is problematic, particularly in complex data environments. Here we present a Bayesian nonparametric approach to learning that makes use of statistical models, but does not assume that the model is true. Our approach has provably better properties than using a parametric model and admits a Monte Carlo sampling scheme that can afford massive scalability on modern computer architectures. The model-based aspect of learning is particularly attractive for regularizing nonparametric inference when the sample size is small, and also for correcting approximate approaches such as variational Bayes (VB). We demonstrate the approach on a number of examples including VB classifiers and Bayesian random forests.

How humans make repeated choices among options with imperfectly known reward outcomes is an important problem in psychology and neuroscience. This is often studied using multi-armed bandits, which is also frequently studied in machine learning. We present data from a human stationary bandit experiment, in which we vary the average abundance and variability of reward availability (mean and variance of reward rate distributions). Surprisingly, we find subjects significantly underestimate prior mean of reward rates -- based on their self-report, at the end of a game, on their reward expectation of non-chosen arms. Previously, human learning in the bandit task was found to be well captured by a Bayesian ideal learning model, the Dynamic Belief Model (DBM), albeit under an incorrect generative assumption of the temporal structure - humans assume reward rates can change over time even though they are actually fixed. We find that the "pessimism bias" in the bandit task is well captured by the prior mean of DBM when fitted to human choices; but it is poorly captured by the prior mean of the Fixed Belief Model (FBM), an alternative Bayesian model that (correctly) assumes reward rates to be constants. This pessimism bias is also incompletely captured by a simple reinforcement learning model (RL) commonly used in neuroscience and psychology, in terms of fitted initial Q-values. While it seems sub-optimal, and thus mysterious, that humans have an underestimated prior reward expectation, our simulations show that an underestimated prior mean helps to maximize long-term gain, if the observer assumes volatility when reward rates are stable and utilizes a softmax decision policy instead of the optimal one (obtainable by dynamic programming). This raises the intriguing possibility that the brain underestimates reward rates to compensate for the incorrect non-stationarity assumption in the generative model and a simplified decision policy.

Recent advances in recording technologies have allowed neuroscientists to record simultaneous spiking activity from hundreds to thousands of neurons in multiple brain regions. Such large-scale recordings pose a major challenge to existing statistical methods for neural data analysis. Here we develop highly scalable approximate inference methods for Poisson generalized linear models (GLMs) that require only a single pass over the data. Our approach relies on a recently proposed method for obtaining approximate sufficient statistics for GLMs using polynomial approximations [Huggins et al., 2017], which we adapt to the Poisson GLM setting. We focus on inference using quadratic approximations to nonlinear terms in the Poisson GLM log-likelihood with Gaussian priors, for which we derive closed-form solutions to the approximate maximum likelihood and MAP estimates, posterior distribution, and marginal likelihood. We introduce an adaptive procedure to select the polynomial approximation interval and show that the resulting method allows for efficient and accurate inference and regularization of high-dimensional parameters. We use the quadratic estimator to fit a fully-coupled Poisson GLM to spike train data recorded from 831 neurons across five regions of the mouse brain for a duration of 41 minutes, binned at 1 ms resolution. Across all neurons, this model is fit to over 2 billion spike count bins and identifies fine-timescale statistical dependencies between neurons within and across cortical and subcortical areas.

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is an important methodology for Bayesian inference when the likelihood function is intractable. Sampling-based ABC algorithms such as rejection- and K2-ABC are inefficient when the parameters have high dimensions, while the regression-based algorithms such as K- and DR-ABC are hard to scale. In this paper, we introduce an optimization-based ABC framework that addresses these deficiencies. Leveraging a generative model for posterior and joint distribution matching, we show that ABC can be framed as saddle point problems, whose objectives can be accessed directly with samples. We present the predictive ABC algorithm (P-ABC), and provide a probabilistically approximately correct (PAC) bound that guarantees its learning consistency. Numerical experiment shows that P-ABC outperforms both K2- and DR-ABC significantly.

Expectation Maximization (EM) is among the most popular algorithms for maximum likelihood estimation, but it is generally only guaranteed to find its stationary points of the log-likelihood objective. The goal of this article is to present theoretical and empirical evidence that over-parameterization can help EM avoid spurious local optima in the log-likelihood. We consider the problem of estimating the mean vectors of a Gaussian mixture model in a scenario where the mixing weights are known. Our study shows that the global behavior of EM, when one uses an over-parameterized model in which the mixing weights are treated as unknown, is better than that when one uses the (correct) model with the mixing weights fixed to the known values. For symmetric Gaussians mixtures with two components, we prove that introducing the (statistically redundant) weight parameters enables EM to find the global maximizer of the log-likelihood starting from almost any initial mean parameters, whereas EM without this over-parameterization may very often fail. For other Gaussian mixtures, we provide empirical evidence that shows similar behavior. Our results corroborate the value of over-parameterization in solving non-convex optimization problems, previously observed in other domains.