Directed Networks
Capuchin: Causal Database Repair for Algorithmic Fairness
Salimi, Babak, Rodriguez, Luke, Howe, Bill, Suciu, Dan
Fairness is increasingly recognized as a critical component of machine learning systems. However, it is the underlying data on which these systems are trained that often reflect discrimination, suggesting a database repair problem. Existing treatments of fairness rely on statistical correlations that can be fooled by statistical anomalies, such as Simpson's paradox. Proposals for causality-based definitions of fairness can correctly model some of these situations, but they require specification of the underlying causal models. In this paper, we formalize the situation as a database repair problem, proving sufficient conditions for fair classifiers in terms of admissible variables as opposed to a complete causal model. We show that these conditions correctly capture subtle fairness violations. We then use these conditions as the basis for database repair algorithms that provide provable fairness guarantees about classifiers trained on their training labels. We evaluate our algorithms on real data, demonstrating improvement over the state of the art on multiple fairness metrics proposed in the literature while retaining high utility.
Acceleration of expensive computations in Bayesian statistics using vector operations
Warne, David J., Sisson, Scott A., Drovandi, Christopher
Many applications in Bayesian statistics are extremely computationally intensive. However, they are also often inherently parallel, making them prime targets for modern massively parallel central processing unit (CPU) architectures. While the use of multi-core and distributed computing is widely applied in the Bayesian community, very little attention has been given to fine-grain parallelisation using single instruction multiple data (SIMD) operations that are available on most modern commodity CPUs. Rather, most fine-grain tuning in the literature has centred around general purpose graphics processing units (GPGPUs). Since the effective utilisation of GPGPUs typically requires specialised programming languages, such technologies are not ideal for the wider Bayesian community. In this work, we practically demonstrate, using standard programming libraries, the utility of the SIMD approach for several topical Bayesian applications. In particular, we consider sampling of the prior predictive distribution for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), and the computation of Bayesian $p$-values for testing prior weak informativeness. Through minor code alterations, we show that SIMD operations can improve the floating point arithmetic performance resulting in up to $6\times$ improvement in the overall serial algorithm performance. Furthermore $4$-way parallel versions can lead to almost $19\times$ improvement over a na\"{i}ve serial implementation. We illustrate the potential of SIMD operations for accelerating Bayesian computations and provide the reader with essential implementation techniques required to exploit modern massively parallel processing environments using standard software development tools.
Truth Inference at Scale: A Bayesian Model for Adjudicating Highly Redundant Crowd Annotations
Li, Yuan, Rubinstein, Benjamin I. P., Cohn, Trevor
Crowd-sourcing is a cheap and popular means of creating training and evaluation datasets for machine learning, however it poses the problem of `truth inference', as individual workers cannot be wholly trusted to provide reliable annotations. Research into models of annotation aggregation attempts to infer a latent `true' annotation, which has been shown to improve the utility of crowd-sourced data. However, existing techniques beat simple baselines only in low redundancy settings, where the number of annotations per instance is low ($\le 3$), or in situations where workers are unreliable and produce low quality annotations (e.g., through spamming, random, or adversarial behaviours.) As we show, datasets produced by crowd-sourcing are often not of this type: the data is highly redundantly annotated ($\ge 5$ annotations per instance), and the vast majority of workers produce high quality outputs. In these settings, the majority vote heuristic performs very well, and most truth inference models underperform this simple baseline. We propose a novel technique, based on a Bayesian graphical model with conjugate priors, and simple iterative expectation-maximisation inference. Our technique produces competitive performance to the state-of-the-art benchmark methods, and is the only method that significantly outperforms the majority vote heuristic at one-sided level 0.025, shown by significance tests. Moreover, our technique is simple, is implemented in only 50 lines of code, and trains in seconds.
Bayesian Anomaly Detection and Classification
Roberts, Ethan, Bassett, Bruce A., Lochner, Michelle
Statistical uncertainties are rarely incorporated in machine learning algorithms, especially for anomaly detection. Here we present the Bayesian Anomaly Detection And Classification (BADAC) formalism, which provides a unified statistical approach to classification and anomaly detection within a hierarchical Bayesian framework. BADAC deals with uncertainties by marginalising over the unknown, true, value of the data. Using simulated data with Gaussian noise, BADAC is shown to be superior to standard algorithms in both classification and anomaly detection performance in the presence of uncertainties, though with significantly increased computational cost. Additionally, BADAC provides well-calibrated classification probabilities, valuable for use in scientific pipelines. We show that BADAC can work in online mode and is fairly robust to model errors, which can be diagnosed through model-selection methods. In addition it can perform unsupervised new class detection and can naturally be extended to search for anomalous subsets of data. BADAC is therefore ideal where computational cost is not a limiting factor and statistical rigour is important. We discuss approximations to speed up BADAC, such as the use of Gaussian processes, and finally introduce a new metric, the Rank-Weighted Score (RWS), that is particularly suited to evaluating the ability of algorithms to detect anomalies.
Deep Learning in Cardiology
Bizopoulos, Paschalis, Koutsouris, Dimitrios
The medical field is creating large amount of data that physicians are unable to decipher and use efficiently. Moreover, rule-based expert systems are inefficient in solving complicated medical tasks or for creating insights using big data. Deep learning has emerged as a more accurate and effective technology in a wide range of medical problems such as diagnosis, prediction and intervention. Deep learning is a representation learning method that consists of layers that transform the data non-linearly, thus, revealing hierarchical relationships and structures. In this review we survey deep learning application papers that use structured data, signal and imaging modalities from cardiology. We discuss the advantages and limitations of applying deep learning in cardiology that also apply in medicine in general, while proposing certain directions as the most viable for clinical use.
Unsupervised Visual Domain Adaptation: A Deep Max-Margin Gaussian Process Approach
Kim, Minyoung, Sahu, Pritish, Gholami, Behnam, Pavlovic, Vladimir
In unsupervised domain adaptation, it is widely known that the target domain error can be provably reduced by having a shared input representation that makes the source and target domains indistinguishable from each other. Very recently it has been studied that not just matching the marginal input distributions, but the alignment of output (class) distributions is also critical. The latter can be achieved by minimizing the maximum discrepancy of predictors (classifiers). In this paper, we adopt this principle, but propose a more systematic and effective way to achieve hypothesis consistency via Gaussian processes (GP). The GP allows us to define/induce a hypothesis space of the classifiers from the posterior distribution of the latent random functions, turning the learning into a simple large-margin posterior separation problem, far easier to solve than previous approaches based on adversarial minimax optimization. We formulate a learning objective that effectively pushes the posterior to minimize the maximum discrepancy. This is further shown to be equivalent to maximizing margins and minimizing uncertainty of the class predictions in the target domain, a well-established principle in classical (semi-)supervised learning. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach is comparable or superior to the existing methods on several benchmark domain adaptation datasets.
Survey of Bayesian Networks Applications to Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles
Torres, Rocío Díaz de León, Molina, Martín, Campoy, Pascual
This article reviews the applications of Bayesian Networks to Intelligent Autonomous Vehicles (IAV) from the decision making point of view, which represents the final step for fully Autonomous Vehicles (currently under discussion). Until now, when it comes making high level decisions for Autonomous Vehicles (AVs), humans have the last word. Based on the works cited in this article and analysis done here, the modules of a general decision making framework and its variables are inferred. Many efforts have been made in the labs showing Bayesian Networks as a promising computer model for decision making. Further research should go into the direction of testing Bayesian Network models in real situations. In addition to the applications, Bayesian Network fundamentals are introduced as elements to consider when developing IAVs with the potential of making high level judgement calls.
Online Sampling from Log-Concave Distributions
Lee, Holden, Mangoubi, Oren, Vishnoi, Nisheeth K.
Given a sequence of convex functions $f_0, f_1, \ldots, f_T$, we study the problem of sampling from the Gibbs distribution $\pi_t \propto e^{-\sum_{k=0}^t f_k}$ for each epoch $t$ in an online manner. This problem occurs in applications to machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and optimization where one constantly acquires new data, and must continuously update the distribution. Our main result is an algorithm that generates independent samples from a distribution that is a fixed $\varepsilon$ TV-distance from $\pi_t$ for every $t$ and, under mild assumptions on the functions, makes poly$\log(T)$ gradient evaluations per epoch. All previous results for this problem imply a bound on the number of gradient or function evaluations which is at least linear in $T$. While we assume the functions have bounded second moment, we do not assume strong convexity. In particular, we show that our assumptions hold for online Bayesian logistic regression, when the data satisfy natural regularity properties. In simulations, our algorithm achieves accuracy comparable to that of a Markov chain specialized to logistic regression. Our main result also implies the first algorithm to sample from a $d$-dimensional log-concave distribution $\pi_T \propto e^{-\sum_{k=0}^T f_k}$ where the $f_k$'s are not assumed to be strongly convex and the total number of gradient evaluations is roughly $T\log(T)+\mathrm{poly}(d),$ as opposed to $T\cdot \mathrm{poly}(d)$ implied by prior works. Key to our algorithm is a novel stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics Markov chain that has a carefully designed variance reduction step built-in with fixed constant batch size. Technically, lack of strong convexity is a significant barrier to the analysis, and, here, our main contribution is a martingale exit time argument showing the chain is constrained to a ball of radius roughly poly$\log(T)$ for the duration of the algorithm.
A Conjoint Application of Data Mining Techniques for Analysis of Global Terrorist Attacks -- Prevention and Prediction for Combating Terrorism
Kumar, Vivek, Mazzara, Manuel, Gen., Maj., Messina, Angelo, Lee, JooYoung
Terrorism has become one of the most tedious problems to deal with and a prominent threat to mankind. To enhance counter-terrorism, several research works are developing efficient and precise systems, data mining is not an exception. Immense data is floating in our lives, though the scarce availability of authentic terrorist attack data in the public domain makes it complicated to fight terrorism. This manuscript focuses on data mining classification techniques and discusses the role of United Nations in counter-terrorism. It analyzes the performance of classifiers such as Lazy Tree, Multilayer Perceptron, Multiclass and Na\"ive Bayes classifiers for observing the trends for terrorist attacks around the world. The database for experiment purpose is created from different public and open access sources for years 1970-2015 comprising of 156,772 reported attacks causing massive losses of lives and property. This work enumerates the losses occurred, trends in attack frequency and places more prone to it, by considering the attack responsibilities taken as evaluation class.