Evolving cybersecurity threats are a persistent challenge for systemadministrators and security experts as new malwares are continu-ally released. Attackers may look for vulnerabilities in commercialproducts or execute sophisticated reconnaissance campaigns tounderstand a targets network and gather information on securityproducts like firewalls and intrusion detection / prevention systems(network or host-based). Many new attacks tend to be modificationsof existing ones. In such a scenario, rule-based systems fail to detectthe attack, even though there are minor differences in conditions /attributes between rules to identify the new and existing attack. Todetect these differences the IDS must be able to isolate the subset ofconditions that are true and predict the likely conditions (differentfrom the original) that must be observed. In this paper, we proposeaprobabilistic abductive reasoningapproach that augments an exist-ing rule-based IDS (snort [29]) to detect these evolved attacks by (a)Predicting rule conditions that are likely to occur (based on existingrules) and (b) able to generate new snort rules when provided withseed rule (i.e. a starting rule) to reduce the burden on experts toconstantly update them. We demonstrate the effectiveness of theapproach by generating new rules from the snort 2012 rules set andtesting it on the MACCDC 2012 dataset [6].

In this work, we utilize Machine Learning for early recognition of patients at high risk of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), which is critical for successful prevention strategies for this devastating syndrome. The difficulty in early ARDS recognition stems from its complex and heterogenous nature. In this study, we integrate knowledge of the heterogeneity of ARDS patients into predictive model building. Using MIMIC-III data, we first apply latent class analysis (LCA) to identify homogeneous sub-groups in the ARDS population, and then build predictive models on the partitioned data. The results indicate that significantly improved performances of prediction can be obtained for two of the three identified sub-phenotypes of ARDS. Experiments suggests that identifying sub-phenotypes is beneficial for building predictive model for ARDS.

Motivation: Radiomics refers to the high-throughput mining of quantitative features from radiographic images. It is a promising field in that it may provide a non-invasive solution for screening and classification. Standard machine learning classification and feature selection techniques, however, tend to display inferior performance in terms of (the stability of) predictive performance. This is due to the heavy multicollinearity present in radiomic data. We set out to provide an easy-to-use approach that deals with this problem. Results: We developed a four-step approach that projects the original high-dimensional feature space onto a lower-dimensional latent-feature space, while retaining most of the covariation in the data. It consists of (i) penalized maximum likelihood estimation of a redundancy filtered correlation matrix. The resulting matrix (ii) is the input for a maximum likelihood factor analysis procedure. This two-stage maximum-likelihood approach can be used to (iii) produce a compact set of stable features that (iv) can be directly used in any (regression-based) classifier or predictor. It outperforms other classification (and feature selection) techniques in both external and internal validation settings regarding survival in squamous cell cancers.

Tensor network (TN) has recently triggered extensive interests in developing machine-learning models in quantum many-body Hilbert space. Here we purpose a generative TN classification (GTNC) approach for supervised learning. The strategy is to train the generative TN for each class of the samples to construct the classifiers. The classification is implemented by comparing the distance in the many-body Hilbert space. The numerical experiments by GTNC show impressive performance on the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST dataset. The testing accuracy is competitive to the state-of-the-art convolutional neural network while higher than the naive Bayes classifier (a generative classifier) and support vector machine. Moreover, GTNC is more efficient than the existing TN models that are in general discriminative. By investigating the distances in the many-body Hilbert space, we find that (a) the samples are naturally clustering in such a space; and (b) bounding the bond dimensions of the TN's to finite values corresponds to removing redundant information in the image recognition. These two characters make GTNC an adaptive and universal model of excellent performance.

In this paper, we aimed at reviewing several different approaches present today in the search for more accurate diagnostic and treatment management in mental healthcare. Our focus is on mood disorders, and in particular on the major depressive disorder (MDD). We are reviewing and discussing findings based on neuroimaging studies (MRI and fMRI) first to get the impression of the body of knowledge about the anatomical and functional differences in depression. Then, we are focusing on less expensive data-driven approach, applicable for everyday clinical practice, in particular, those based on electroencephalographic (EEG) recordings. Among those studies utilizing EEG, we are discussing a group of applications used for detecting of depression based on the resting state EEG (detection studies) and interventional studies (using stimulus in their protocols or aiming to predict the outcome of therapy). We conclude with a discussion and review of guidelines to improve the reliability of developed models that could serve improvement of diagnostic of depression in psychiatry.

We present a scalable nonparametric Bayesian method to perform network reconstruction from observed functional behavior, that at the same time infers the communities present in the network. We show that the joint reconstruction with community detection has a synergistic effect, where the edge correlations used to inform the existence of communities are inherently also used to improve the accuracy of the reconstruction, which in turn can better inform the uncovering of communities. We illustrate the use of our method with observations arising from epidemic models and the Ising model, both on synthetic and empirical networks, as well as on data containing only functional information.

The paper deals with learning probability distributions of observed data by artificial neural networks. We suggest a so-called gradient conjugate prior (GCP) update appropriate for neural networks, which is a modification of the classical Bayesian update for conjugate priors. We establish a connection between the gradient conjugate prior update and the maximization of the log-likelihood of the predictive distribution. Unlike for the Bayesian neural networks, we use deterministic weights of neural networks, but rather assume that the ground truth distribution is normal with unknown mean and variance and learn by the neural networks the parameters of a prior (normal-gamma distribution) for these unknown mean and variance. The update of the parameters is done, using the gradient that, at each step, directs towards minimizing the Kullback--Leibler divergence from the prior to the posterior distribution (both being normal-gamma). We obtain a corresponding dynamical system for the prior's parameters and analyze its properties. In particular, we study the limiting behavior of all the prior's parameters and show how it differs from the case of the classical full Bayesian update. The results are validated on synthetic and real world data sets.

In recent years, automated data-driven decision-making systems have enjoyed a tremendous success in a variety of fields (e.g., to make product recommendations, or to guide the production of entertainment). More recently, these algorithms are increasingly being used to assist socially sensitive decision-making (e.g., to decide who to admit into a degree program or to prioritize individuals for public housing). Yet, these automated tools may result in discriminative decision-making in the sense that they may treat individuals unfairly or unequally based on membership to a category or a minority, resulting in disparate treatment or disparate impact and violating both moral and ethical standards. This may happen when the training dataset is itself biased (e.g., if individuals belonging to a particular group have historically been discriminated upon). However, it may also happen when the training dataset is unbiased, if the errors made by the system affect individuals belonging to a category or minority differently (e.g., if misclassification rates for Blacks are higher than for Whites). In this paper, we unify the definitions of unfairness across classification and regression. We propose a versatile mixed-integer optimization framework for learning optimal and fair decision trees and variants thereof to prevent disparate treatment and/or disparate impact as appropriate. This translates to a flexible schema for designing fair and interpretable policies suitable for socially sensitive decision-making. We conduct extensive computational studies that show that our framework improves the state-of-the-art in the field (which typically relies on heuristics) to yield non-discriminative decisions at lower cost to overall accuracy.

The identification of the governing equations of chaotic dynamical systems from data has recently emerged as a hot topic. While the seminal work by Brunton et al. reported proof-of-concepts for idealized observation setting for fully-observed systems, {\em i.e.} large signal-to-noise ratios and high-frequency sampling of all system variables, we here address the learning of data-driven representations of chaotic dynamics for partially-observed systems, including significant noise patterns and possibly lower and irregular sampling setting. Instead of considering training losses based on short-term prediction error like state-of-the-art learning-based schemes, we adopt a Bayesian formulation and state this issue as a data assimilation problem with unknown model parameters. To solve for the joint inference of the hidden dynamics and of model parameters, we combine neural-network representations and state-of-the-art assimilation schemes. Using iterative Expectation-Maximization (EM)-like procedures, the key feature of the proposed inference schemes is the derivation of the posterior of the hidden dynamics. Using a neural-network-based Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) representation of these dynamics, we investigate two strategies: their combination to Ensemble Kalman Smoothers and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)-based variational approximations of the posterior. Through numerical experiments on the Lorenz-63 system with different noise and time sampling settings, we demonstrate the ability of the proposed schemes to recover and reproduce the hidden chaotic dynamics, including their Lyapunov characteristic exponents, when classic machine learning approaches fail.

In this paper we contribute a novel algorithm family, which generalizes many unsupervised techniques including unnormalized and energy models, and allows to infer different statistical modalities (e.g.~data likelihood and ratio between densities) from data samples. The proposed unsupervised technique Probabilistic Surface Optimization (PSO) views a neural network (NN) as a flexible surface which can be pushed according to loss-specific virtual stochastic forces, where a dynamical equilibrium is achieved when the point-wise forces on the surface become equal. Concretely, the surface is pushed up and down at points sampled from two different distributions, with overall up and down forces becoming functions of these two distribution densities and of force intensity magnitudes defined by loss of a particular PSO instance. The eventual force equilibrium upon convergence enforces the NN to be equal to various statistical functions depending on the used magnitude functions, such as data density. Furthermore, this dynamical-statistical equilibrium is extremely intuitive and useful, providing many implications and possible usages in probabilistic inference. Further, we provide new PSO-based approaches as demonstration of PSO exceptional usability. We also analyze PSO convergence and optimization stability, and relate them to the gradient similarity function over NN input space. Further, we propose new ways to improve the above stability. Finally, we present new instances of PSO, termed PSO-LDE, for data density estimation on logarithmic scale and also provide a new NN block-diagonal architecture for increased surface flexibility, which significantly improves estimation accuracy. Both PSO-LDE and the new architecture are combined together as a new density estimation technique. In our experiments we demonstrate this technique to produce highly accurate density estimation for 20D data.