We introduce Density-Informed VAE (DiVAE), a lightweight, data-driven regularizer that aligns the VAE log-prior probability $\log p_Z(z)$ with a log-density estimated from data. Standard VAEs match latents to a simple prior, overlooking density structure in the data-space. DiVAE encourages the encoder to allocate posterior mass in proportion to data-space density and, when the prior is learnable, nudges the prior toward high-density regions. This is realized by adding a robust, precision-weighted penalty to the ELBO, incurring negligible computational overhead. On synthetic datasets, DiVAE (i) improves distributional alignment of latent log-densities to its ground truth counterpart, (ii) improves prior coverage, and (iii) yields better OOD uncertainty calibration. On MNIST, DiVAE improves alignment of the prior with external estimates of the density, providing better interpretability, and improves OOD detection for learnable priors.

Crowdsourcing enables scalable autonomous driving map construction, but low-cost sensor noise hinders quality from improving with data volume. We propose CSMapping, a system that produces accurate semantic maps and topological road centerlines whose quality consistently increases with more crowdsourced data. For semantic mapping, we train a latent diffusion model on HD maps (optionally conditioned on SD maps) to learn a generative prior of real-world map structure, without requiring paired crowdsourced/HD-map supervision. This prior is incorporated via constrained MAP optimization in latent space, ensuring robustness to severe noise and plausible completion in unobserved areas. Initialization uses a robust vectorized mapping module followed by diffusion inversion; optimization employs efficient Gaussian-basis reparameterization, projected gradient descent zobracket multi-start, and latent-space factor-graph for global consistency. For topological mapping, we apply confidence-weighted k-medoids clustering and kinematic refinement to trajectories, yielding smooth, human-like centerlines robust to trajectory variation. Experiments on nuScenes, Argoverse 2, and a large proprietary dataset achieve state-of-the-art semantic and topological mapping performance, with thorough ablation and scalability studies.

Active inference proposes expected free energy as an objective for planning and decision-making to adequately balance exploitative and explorative drives in learning agents. The exploitative drive, or what an agent wants to achieve, is formalised as the Kullback-Leibler divergence between a variational probability distribution, updated at each inference step, and a preference probability distribution that indicates what states or observations are more likely for the agent, hence determining the agent's goal in a certain environment. In the literature, the questions of how the preference distribution should be specified and of how a certain specification impacts inference and learning in an active inference agent have been given hardly any attention. In this work, we consider four possible ways of defining the preference distribution, either providing the agents with hard or soft goals and either involving or not goal shaping (i.e., intermediate goals). We compare the performances of four agents, each given one of the possible preference distributions, in a grid world navigation task. Our results show that goal shaping enables the best performance overall (i.e., it promotes exploitation) while sacrificing learning about the environment's transition dynamics (i.e., it hampers exploration).

Loss of lung function in cystic fibrosis (CF) occurs progressively, punctuated by acute pulmonary exacerbations (PEx) in which abrupt declines in lung function are not fully recovered. A key component of CF management over the past half century has been the treatment of PEx to slow lung function decline. This has been credited with improvements in survival for people with CF (PwCF), but there is no consensus on the optimal approach to PEx management. BEAT-CF (Bayesian evidence-adaptive treatment of CF) was established to build an evidence-informed knowledge base for CF management. The BEAT-CF causal model is a directed acyclic graph (DAG) and Bayesian network (BN) for PEx that aims to inform the design and analysis of clinical trials comparing the effectiveness of alternative approaches to PEx management. The causal model describes relationships between background risk factors, treatments, and pathogen colonisation of the airways that affect the outcome of an individual PEx episode. The key factors, outcomes, and causal relationships were elicited from CF clinical experts and together represent current expert understanding of the pathophysiology of a PEx episode, guiding the design of data collection and studies and enabling causal inference. Here, we present the DAG that documents this understanding, along with the processes used in its development, providing transparency around our trial design and study processes, as well as a reusable framework for others.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated exceptional capabilities in natural language understanding and generation. Based on these LLMs, businesses have started to provide Embeddings-as-a-Service (EaaS), offering feature extraction capabilities (in the form of text embeddings) that benefit downstream natural language processing tasks. However, prior research has demonstrated that EaaS is vulnerable to imitation attacks, where an attacker clones the service's model in a black-box manner without access to the model's internal workings. In response, watermarks have been added to the text embeddings to protect the intellectual property of EaaS providers by allowing them to check for model ownership. This thesis focuses on defending against imitation attacks by investigating EaaS watermarks. To achieve this goal, we unveil novel attacks and propose and validate new watermarking techniques. Firstly, we show that existing EaaS watermarks can be removed through paraphrasing the input text when attackers clone the model during imitation attacks. Our study illustrates that paraphrasing can effectively bypass current state-of-the-art EaaS watermarks across various attack setups (including different paraphrasing techniques and models) and datasets in most instances. This demonstrates a new vulnerability in recent EaaS watermarking techniques. Subsequently, as a countermeasure, we propose a novel watermarking technique, WET (Watermarking EaaS with Linear Transformation), which employs linear transformation of the embeddings. Watermark verification is conducted by applying a reverse transformation and comparing the similarity between recovered and original embeddings. We demonstrate its robustness against paraphrasing attacks with near-perfect verifiability. We conduct detailed ablation studies to assess the significance of each component and hyperparameter in WET.

To address the scalability limitations of Gaussian process (GP) regression, several approximation techniques have been proposed. One such method is based on tensor networks, which utilizes an exponential number of basis functions without incurring exponential computational cost. However, extending this model to a fully probabilistic formulation introduces several design challenges. In particular, for tensor train (TT) models, it is unclear which TT-core should be treated in a Bayesian manner. We introduce a Bayesian tensor train kernel machine that applies Laplace approximation to estimate the posterior distribution over a selected TT-core and employs variational inference (VI) for precision hyperparameters. Experiments show that core selection is largely independent of TT-ranks and feature structure, and that VI replaces cross-validation while offering up to 65x faster training. The method's effectiveness is demonstrated on an inverse dynamics problem.

Inverse problems arise across scientific and engineering domains, where the goal is to infer hidden parameters or physical fields from indirect and noisy observations. Classical approaches, such as variational regularization and Bayesian inference, provide well established theoretical foundations for handling ill posedness. However, these methods often become computationally restrictive in high dimensional settings or when the forward model is governed by complex physics. Physics Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have recently emerged as a promising framework for solving inverse problems by embedding physical laws directly into the training process of neural networks. In this paper, we introduce a new perspective on the Bayesian Physics Informed Neural Network (BPINN) framework, extending classical PINNs by explicitly incorporating training data generation, modeling and measurement uncertainties through Bayesian prior modeling and doing inference with the posterior laws. Also, as we focus on the inverse problems, we call this method BPINN-IP, and we show that the standard PINN formulation naturally appears as its special case corresponding to the Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimate. This unified formulation allows simultaneous exploitation of physical constraints, prior knowledge, and data-driven inference, while enabling uncertainty quantification through posterior distributions. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework, we consider inverse problems arising in infrared image processing, including deconvolution and super-resolution, and present results on both simulated and real industrial data.

Thinking Large Language Models (LLMs) used as judges for pairwise preferences remain noisy at the single-sample level, and common aggregation rules (majority vote, soft self-consistency, or instruction-based self-aggregation) are inconsistent when ties are allowed. We study inference-time compute (ITC) for evaluators that generate n independent thinking-rating samples per item, and propose a principled, distribution-calibrated aggregation scheme. Our method models three-way preferences with a Bradley-Terry-Davidson formulation on rating counts, leveraging both polarity (margin among non-ties) and decisiveness (non-tie rate) to distinguish narrow margins from strong consensus. Across various evaluation benchmarks, our approach consistently reduces MAE and increases pairwise accuracy versus standard baselines, and when evaluated against human-consensus meta-labels, matches or exceeds individual human raters. These results show that carefully allocating ITC and aggregating with distribution-aware methods turns noisy individual model judgments into reliable ratings for evaluation. Thinking large language models (LLMs) are increasingly being employed as automated judges for evaluating the output of other generative systems, a paradigm known as "Thinking-LLM-as-a-Judge" (Saha et al., 2025). This approach offers a scalable and cost-effective alternative to human evaluation, which is often slow and expensive. To mitigate the inherent stochasticity and noise of single-pass judgments, a common strategy is to leverage inference-time compute (ITC) Snell et al. (2024) by generating multiple independent reasoning and rating samples for each item being evaluated. However, the reliability of the final judgment hinges critically on how these multiple outputs are aggregated. Current aggregation methods, such as majority voting (Self-Consistency (Wang et al., 2023b)) or heuristics based on model confidence scores or LLM generated aggregators, are often brittle and statistically suboptimal.

Uncertainty quantification is essential for deploying reliable Graph Neural Networks (GNNs), where existing approaches primarily rely on Bayesian inference or ensembles. In this paper, we introduce the first credal graph neural networks (CGNNs), which extend credal learning to the graph domain by training GNNs to output set-valued predictions in the form of credal sets. To account for the distinctive nature of message passing in GNNs, we develop a complementary approach to credal learning that leverages different aspects of layer-wise information propagation. We assess our approach on uncertainty quantification in node classification under out-of-distribution conditions. Our analysis highlights the critical role of the graph homophily assumption in shaping the effectiveness of uncertainty estimates. Extensive experiments demonstrate that CGNNs deliver more reliable representations of epistemic uncertainty and achieve state-of-the-art performance under distributional shift on heterophilic graphs.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at explicit reasoning, but their implicit computational strategies remain underexplored. Decades of psychophysics research show that humans intuitively process and integrate noisy signals using near-optimal Bayesian strategies in perceptual tasks. We ask whether LLMs exhibit similar behaviour and perform optimal multimodal integration without explicit training or instruction. Adopting the psychophysics paradigm, we infer computational principles of LLMs from systematic behavioural studies. We introduce a behavioural benchmark - BayesBench: four magnitude estimation tasks (length, location, distance, and duration) over text and image, inspired by classic psychophysics, and evaluate a diverse set of nine LLMs alongside human judgments for calibration. Through controlled ablations of noise, context, and instruction prompts, we measure performance, behaviour and efficiency in multimodal cue-combination. Beyond accuracy and efficiency metrics, we introduce a Bayesian Consistency Score that detects Bayes-consistent behavioural shifts even when accuracy saturates. Our results show that while capable models often adapt in Bayes-consistent ways, accuracy does not guarantee robustness. Notably, GPT-5 Mini achieves perfect text accuracy but fails to integrate visual cues efficiently. This reveals a critical dissociation between capability and strategy, suggesting accuracy-centric benchmarks may over-index on performance while missing brittle uncertainty handling. These findings reveal emergent principled handling of uncertainty and highlight the correlation between accuracy and Bayesian tendencies. We release our psychophysics benchmark and consistency metric (https://bayes-bench.github.io) as evaluation tools and to inform future multimodal architecture designs.