We revisit the classic ski rental problem through the lens of Bayesian decision-making and machine-learned predictions. While traditional algorithms minimize worst-case cost without assumptions, and recent learning-augmented approaches leverage noisy forecasts with robustness guarantees, our work unifies these perspectives. We propose a discrete Bayesian framework that maintains exact posterior distributions over the time horizon, enabling principled uncertainty quantification and seamless incorporation of expert priors. Our algorithm achieves prior-dependent competitive guarantees and gracefully interpolates between worst-case and fully-informed settings. Our extensive experimental evaluation demonstrates superior empirical performance across diverse scenarios, achieving near-optimal results under accurate priors while maintaining robust worst-case guarantees. This framework naturally extends to incorporate multiple predictions, non-uniform priors, and contextual information, highlighting the practical advantages of Bayesian reasoning in online decision problems with imperfect predictions.

This work aims to learn the directed acyclic graph (DAG) that captures the instantaneous dependencies underlying a multivariate time series. The observed data follow a linear structural vector autoregressive model (SVARM) with both instantaneous and time-lagged dependencies, where the instantaneous structure is modeled by a DAG to reflect potential causal relationships. While recent continuous relaxation approaches impose acyclicity through smooth constraint functions involving powers of the adjacency matrix, they lead to non-convex optimization problems that are challenging to solve. In contrast, we assume that the underlying DAG has only non-negative edge weights, and leverage this additional structure to impose acyclicity via a convex constraint. This enables us to cast the problem of non-negative DAG recovery from multivariate time-series data as a convex optimization problem in abstract form, which we solve using the method of multipliers. Crucially, the convex formulation guarantees global optimality of the solution. Finally, we assess the performance of the proposed method on synthetic time-series data, where it outperforms existing alternatives.

Simultaneous localization and mapping (SLAM) plays a fundamental role in extended reality (XR) applications. As the standards for immersion in XR continue to increase, the demands for SLAM benchmarking have become more stringent. Trajectory accuracy is the key metric, and marker-based optical motion capture (MoCap) systems are widely used to generate ground truth (GT) because of their drift-free and relatively accurate measurements. However, the precision of MoCap-based GT is limited by two factors: the spatiotemporal calibration with the device under test (DUT) and the inherent jitter in the MoCap measurements. These limitations hinder accurate SLAM benchmarking, particularly for key metrics like rotation error and inter-frame jitter, which are critical for immersive XR experiences. This paper presents a novel continuous-time maximum likelihood estimator to address these challenges. The proposed method integrates auxiliary inertial measurement unit (IMU) data to compensate for MoCap jitter. Additionally, a variable time synchronization method and a pose residual based on screw congruence constraints are proposed, enabling precise spatiotemporal calibration across multiple sensors and the DUT. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach outperforms existing methods, achieving the precision necessary for comprehensive benchmarking of state-of-the-art SLAM algorithms in XR applications. Furthermore, we thoroughly validate the practicality of our method by benchmarking several leading XR devices and open-source SLAM algorithms. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/ylab-xrpg/xr-hpgt.

Optimal experimental design is a classic topic in statistics, with many well-studied problems, applications, and solutions. The design problem we study is the placement of sensors to monitor spatiotemporal processes, explicitly accounting for the temporal dimension in our modeling and optimization. We observe that recent advancements in computational sciences often yield large datasets based on physics-based simulations, which are rarely leveraged in experimental design. We introduce a novel model-based sensor placement criterion, along with a highly-efficient optimization algorithm, which integrates physics-based simulations and Bayesian experimental design principles to identify sensor networks that "minimize information loss" from simulated data. Our technique relies on sparse variational inference and (separable) Gauss-Markov priors, and thus may adapt many techniques from Bayesian experimental design. We validate our method through a case study monitoring air temperature in Phoenix, Arizona, using state-of-the-art physics-based simulations. Our results show our framework to be superior to random or quasi-random sampling, particularly with a limited number of sensors. We conclude by discussing practical considerations and implications of our framework, including more complex modeling tools and real-world deployments.

Abstract--This paper proposes a hierarchical trajectory planning framework for UA Vs operating under adversarial jamming conditions. Leveraging Bayesian Active Inference, the approach combines expert-generated demonstrations with probabilistic generative modeling to encode high-level symbolic planning, low-level motion policies, and wireless signal feedback. During deployment, the UA V performs online inference to anticipate interference, localize jammers, and adapt its trajectory accordingly--without prior knowledge of jammer locations. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method achieves near-expert performance, significantly reducing communication interference and mission cost compared to model-free reinforcement learning baselines, while maintaining robust generalization in dynamic environments. Unmanned Aerial V ehicles (UA Vs) play a crucial role in military, public, and civilian applications due to their compact size, flexible deployment capabilities, and outstanding performance.

With the increasing complexity of black-box machine learning models and their adoption in high-stakes areas, it is critical to provide explanations for their predictions. Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanation (LIME) is a widely used technique that explains the prediction of any classifier by learning an interpretable model locally around the predicted instance. However, it assumes that the local decision boundary is linear and fails to capture the non-linear relationships, leading to incorrect explanations. In this paper, we propose a novel method that can generate high-fidelity explanations. Multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is used to model non-linear local boundaries that effectively captures the underlying behavior of the reference model, thereby enhancing the local fidelity of the explanation. Additionally, we utilize the N-ball sampling technique, which samples directly from the desired distribution instead of reweighting samples as done in LIME, further improving the faithfulness score. We evaluate our method on three UCI datasets across different classifiers and varying kernel widths. Experimental results show that our method yields more faithful explanations compared to baselines, achieving an average reduction of 37% in root mean square error, significantly improving local fidelity.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a pivotal challenge in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), profoundly impacting decision-making, risk assessment and model reliability. In this paper, we introduce Credal and Interval Deep Evidential Classifications (CDEC and IDEC, respectively) as novel approaches to address UQ in classification tasks. CDEC and IDEC leverage a credal set (closed and convex set of probabilities) and an interval of evidential predictive distributions, respectively, allowing us to avoid overfitting to the training data and to systematically assess both epistemic (reducible) and aleatoric (irreducible) uncertainties. When those surpass acceptable thresholds, CDEC and IDEC have the capability to abstain from classification and flag an excess of epistemic or aleatoric uncertainty, as relevant. Conversely, within acceptable uncertainty bounds, CDEC and IDEC provide a collection of labels with robust probabilistic guarantees. CDEC and IDEC are trained using standard backpropagation and a loss function that draws from the theory of evidence. They overcome the shortcomings of previous efforts, and extend the current evidential deep learning literature. Through extensive experiments on MNIST, CIFAR-10 and CIFAR-100, together with their natural OoD shifts (F-MNIST/K-MNIST, SVHN/Intel, TinyImageNet), we show that CDEC and IDEC achieve competitive predictive accuracy, state-of-the-art OoD detection under epistemic and total uncertainty, and tight, well-calibrated prediction regions that expand reliably under distribution shift. An ablation over ensemble size further demonstrates that CDEC attains stable uncertainty estimates with only a small ensemble.

In context-specific applications such as robotics, telecommunications, and healthcare, artificial intelligence systems often face the challenge of limited training data. This scarcity introduces epistemic uncertainty, i.e., reducible uncertainty stemming from incomplete knowledge of the underlying data distribution, which fundamentally limits predictive performance. This review paper examines formal methodologies that address data-limited regimes through two complementary approaches: quantifying epistemic uncertainty and mitigating data scarcity via synthetic data augmentation. We begin by reviewing generalized Bayesian learning frameworks that characterize epistemic uncertainty through generalized posteriors in the model parameter space, as well as ``post-Bayes'' learning frameworks. We continue by presenting information-theoretic generalization bounds that formalize the relationship between training data quantity and predictive uncertainty, providing a theoretical justification for generalized Bayesian learning. Moving beyond methods with asymptotic statistical validity, we survey uncertainty quantification methods that provide finite-sample statistical guarantees, including conformal prediction and conformal risk control. Finally, we examine recent advances in data efficiency by combining limited labeled data with abundant model predictions or synthetic data. Throughout, we take an information-theoretic perspective, highlighting the role of information measures in quantifying the impact of data scarcity.

Prior work on scientific question answering has largely emphasized chatbot-style systems, with limited exploration of fine-tuning foundation models for domain-specific reasoning. In this study, we developed a chatbot for the University of Limerick's Department of Electronic and Computer Engineering to provide course information to students. A custom dataset of 1,203 question-answer pairs in SQuAD format was constructed using the university book of modules, supplemented with manually and synthetically generated entries. We fine-tuned BERT (Devlin et al., 2019) using PyTorch and evaluated performance with Exact Match and F1 scores. Results show that even modest fine-tuning improves hypothesis framing and knowledge extraction, demonstrating the feasibility of adapting foundation models to educational domains. While domain-specific BERT variants such as BioBERT and SciBERT exist for biomedical and scientific literature, no foundation model has yet been tailored to university course materials. Our work addresses this gap by showing that fine-tuning BERT with academic QA pairs yields effective results, highlighting the potential to scale towards the first domain-specific QA model for universities and enabling autonomous educational knowledge systems.

Operator learning offers a robust framework for approximating mappings between infinite-dimensional function spaces. It has also become a powerful tool for solving inverse problems in the computational sciences. This chapter surveys methodological and theoretical developments at the intersection of operator learning and inverse problems. It begins by summarizing the probabilistic and deterministic approaches to inverse problems, and pays special attention to emerging measure-centric formulations that treat observed data or unknown parameters as probability distributions. The discussion then turns to operator learning by covering essential components such as data generation, loss functions, and widely used architectures for representing function-to-function maps. The core of the chapter centers on the end-to-end inverse operator learning paradigm, which aims to directly map observed data to the solution of the inverse problem without requiring explicit knowledge of the forward map. It highlights the unique challenge that noise plays in this data-driven inversion setting, presents structure-aware architectures for both point predictions and posterior estimates, and surveys relevant theory for linear and nonlinear inverse problems. The chapter also discusses the estimation of priors and regularizers, where operator learning is used more selectively within classical inversion algorithms.