Engineered robust losses such as Huber, Student-$t$, and generalised cross-entropy make supervised models tolerant of contamination but cannot answer which observations are corrupted. We introduce Neural Bayesian Anomaly Mitigation (NBAM), a general-purpose drop-in loss derived from a Bayesian latent-switch mixture model: the marginal likelihood defines a robust supervised loss, and the associated posterior defines an unsupervised contamination classifier. Like Huber or Student-$t$, NBAM can replace the standard training loss in any supervised pipeline; unlike them, it additionally learns a structured contamination model and returns a calibrated per-sample contamination posterior. A learned input-dependent prior $π_ϕ(x)$ captures the spatial locality of contamination, so that samples near known corruptions are more likely to be flagged, while an Occam penalty emerges automatically and regularises against over-flagging. On CIFAR-10 with asymmetric label contamination, NBAM recovers the structure of the corruption process without supervision: the contamination posterior separates clean from corrupted samples, and the learned anomaly head identifies the direction of every label-flip pair. Alongside these capabilities, NBAM outperforms the four robust-loss baselines considered here at contamination rates 0.2-0.6.

An artificial intelligence must have a model of its environment that is causal, supporting reasoning about interventions and counterfactuals, and also combinatorial, supporting generalization to unseen combinations of objects. In this work, we formally study when and how such a model can be learned. We develop relational structural causal models, extending structural causal models (Pearl 2009) to settings where objects and their relations vary. First, we show how answers to not only causal but also observational queries about unseen combinations of objects can not be identified without further assumptions. To enable such identification--including in the presence of unobserved confounding--we define relational causal graphs and derive symbolic identification criteria. Finally, we propose relational neural causal models, a provably correct approach that outperforms non-relational baselines on simulated traffic scenes with varying cars, signals, and pedestrians.

In this paper we investigate the efficacy of the score-based martingale posteriors (SMP) (Cui & Walker, 2025; Fong et al., 2023) in the context of modern and large-scale machine learning problems and its potential for meaningful uncertainty quantification. SMPs work with a stochastic gradient ascent-type recursion on the parameter space of stochastic models and construct a martingale on the parameter space. Under simple mathematical assumptions, the recursion can be built so that the parameters form a martingale sequence which possesses a limiting, in time, random variable, the latter of which can be simulated very quickly, in contrast to Monte Carlo-based methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo. In this expository paper we explore the SMP for inferring the parameters of deep neural networks (DNNs) and, where feasible, compare our results to the state-of-the-art Monte Carlo methods aimed at inferring conventional Bayesian posteriors.

Scientific discovery relies on large-scale hypothesis testing. However, the capacity to identify true discoveries while controlling false discovery faces major challenges: obtaining relevant reference data (the null distribution) is resource-intensive, leaving finite-data uncertainty, and the procedure should account for the inherent structure in the hypothesis space, when such structure exists. Here, we present a framework for controlling the false discovery rate both when each hypothesis is evidenced only by a finite count of null draws, leaving its p-value uncertain, and when the hypothesis space carries arbitrary structure, requiring only that the structure be represented through a suitable reproducing kernel. We present two decision rules that are both robust to structural mis-specification, yet offer a distinct trade-off between exact FDR control and statistical power. The first rule guarantees exact FDR control; the second maximizes power by adapting mirror-statistic control into count space, utilizing an analytical framework to assess FDR control when exact mirror symmetry is relaxed. Furthermore, the tractability gained by the RKHS framework allows us to directly investigate finite-data uncertainties, which we leverage to suggest a policy for the efficient allocation of null distribution samples.

In the era of Explainable Artificial Intelligence, there is a renewed focus on single trees for their ease of interpretation. This paper introduces Simultaneous Latent Budget Trees, a probabilistic machine learning framework for classification trees in the presence of a stratification factor such as a temporal, spatial, or demographic variable, acting as a control variable or potential confounder. Standard tree growth procedures are not designed to optimize a conditional split rule. A model-based split rule is proposed in which child nodes are interpreted as latent components of a simultaneous mixture model, such as the Simultaneous Latent Budget Model and its constrained versions, fitted to the parent node. Mixing parameters drive the observations, differently for each group, to the child nodes whereas latent budgets parameters update the response classes profile of each level of the control variable. Parameters are estimated by least squares considering a neural network perspective of the model. An informative tree structure can be interactively visualized with interpretation aids on the node and the paths, including visual pruning and decision tree selection procedure. Suitable measures are proposed to handle an unbalanced response class distribution. The proposed methodology is applied to investigate gender-related differences in disease progression of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis. The SLBT library with the various tree-based algorithms is available in the linked GitHub repository.

Distinguishing cause and effect from bivariate observational data is a foundational problem in many disciplines, but challenging without additional assumptions. Additive noise models (ANMs) are widely used to enable sample-efficient bivariate causal discovery. However, conventional ANM-based methods fail when unobserved mediators corrupt the causal relationship between variables. This paper makes three key contributions: first, we rigorously characterize why standard ANM approaches break down in the presence of unmeasured mediators. Second, we demonstrate that prior solutions for hidden mediation are brittle in finite sample settings, limiting their practical utility. To address these gaps, we propose Bivariate Denoising Diffusion (BiDD) for causal discovery, a method designed to handle latent noise introduced by unmeasured mediators. Unlike prior methods that infer directionality through mean squared error loss comparisons, our approach introduces a novel independence test statistic: during the noising and denoising processes for each variable, we condition on the other variable as input and evaluate the independence of the predicted noise relative to this input. We prove asymptotic consistency of BiDD under the ANM, and conjecture that it performs well under hidden mediation. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data demonstrate consistent performance, outperforming existing methods in mediator-corrupted settings while maintaining strong performance in mediator-free settings.

Modeling and forecasting nonlinear dynamics under distribution shifts is essential for robust decision-making in real-world systems. In this work, we propose MetaKoopman, a Bayesian meta-learning framework for modeling nonlinear dynamics through linear latent representations. MetaKoopman learns a Matrix Normal-Inverse Wishart (MNIW) prior over the Koopman operator, enabling closed-form Bayesian updates conditioned on recent trajectory segments. Moreover, it provides a closed-form posterior predictive distribution over future state trajectories, capturing both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty in the learned dynamics. We evaluate MetaKoopman on a full-scale autonomous truck and trailer system across a wide range of adverse winter scenarios--including snow, ice, and mixed-friction conditions--as well as in simulated control tasks with diverse distribution shifts. MetaKoopman consistently outperforms prior approaches in multi-step prediction accuracy, uncertainty calibration and robustness to distributional shifts. Field experiments further demonstrate its effectiveness in dynamically feasible motion planning, particularly during evasive maneuvers and operation at the limits of traction.

In standard autoregressive generation, an LLM predicts the next-token distribution, samples a discrete token, and then discards the distribution, passing only the sampled token as new input. To preserve this distribution's rich information, we propose Mixture of Inputs (MOI), a training-free method for autoregressive generation. After generating a token following the standard paradigm, we construct a new input that blends the generated discrete token with the previously discarded token distribution. Specifically, we employ a Bayesian estimation method that treats the token distribution as the prior, the sampled token as the observation, and replaces the conventional one-hot vector with the continuous posterior expectation as the new model input. MOI allows the model to maintain a richer internal representation throughout the generation process, resulting in improved text quality and reasoning capabilities. On mathematical reasoning, code generation, and PhDlevel QA tasks, MOI consistently improves performance across multiple models including QwQ-32B, Nemotron-Super-49B, Gemma-3-27B, and DAPO-Qwen32B, with no additional training and negligible computational overhead.

Planning under opponent uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in multi-agent environments, where an agent must act while inferring the hidden policies of its opponents. Existing type-based methods rely on manually defined behavior classes and struggle to scale, while model-free approaches are sample-inefficient and lack a principled way to incorporate uncertainty into planning. We propose Quantized Opponent Models (QOM), which learn a compact catalog of opponent types via a quantized autoencoder and maintain a Bayesian belief over these types online. This posterior supports both a belief-weighted meta-policy and a Monte-Carlo planning algorithm that directly integrates uncertainty, enabling real-time belief updates and focused exploration. Experiments show that QOM achieves superior performance with lower search cost, offering a tractable and effective solution for belief-aware planning.

Understanding representational similarity between neural recordings and computational models is essential for neuroscience, yet remains challenging to measure reliably due to the constraints on the number of neurons that can be recorded simultaneously. In this work, we apply tools from Random Matrix Theory to investigate how such limitations affect similarity measures, focusing on Centered Kernel Alignment (CKA) and Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA). We propose an analytical framework for representational similarity analysis that relates measured similarities to the spectral properties of the underlying representations. We demonstrate that neural similarities are systematically underestimated under finite neuron sampling, mainly due to eigenvector delocalization. Moreover, for power-law population spectra, we show that the number of localized eigenvectors scales as the square root of the number of recorded neurons, providing a simple rule of thumb for practitioners. To overcome sampling bias, we introduce a denoising method to infer population-level similarity, enabling accurate analysis even with small neuron samples. Theoretical predictions are validated on synthetic and real datasets, offering practical strategies for interpreting neural data under finite sampling constraints.