Bourgogne Franche-Comt e UTBM, F-90010, Belfort, France ABSTRACT Predicting smartphone users location with WiFi fingerprints has been a popular research topic recently. In this work, we propose two novel deep learning-based models, the con-volutional mixture density recurrent neural network and the V AE-based semi-supervised learning model. The convolu-tional mixture density recurrent neural network is designed for path prediction, in which the advantages of convolutional neural networks, recurrent neural networks and mixture density networks are combined. Further, since most of real-world datasets are not labeled, we devise the V AE-based model for the semi-supervised learning tasks. In order to test the proposed models, we conduct the validation experiments on the real-world datasets. The final results verify the effectiveness of our approaches and show the superiority over other existing methods. Index T erms-- Mixture density network, variational au-toencoder, semi-supervised learning, WiFi fingerprint, indoor positioning 1. INTRODUCTION Location based services (LBS) are essential for applications like location-based advertising, outdoor/indoor navigation and social networking, etc. With the help of significant advancement of the smartphone technology in recent decades, smartphone devices are integrated with various built-in sensors, such as GPS modules, WiFi modules, cellular modules, etc. Acquiring the data from such kinds of sensors enables researchers to study human activities. There are several types of data can be utilised for such research purpose.

In the area of credit risk analytics, current Bankruptcy Prediction Models (BPMs) struggle with (a) the availability of comprehensive and real-world data sets and (b) the presence of extreme class imbalance in the data (i.e., very few samples for the minority class) that degrades the performance of the prediction model. Moreover, little research has compared the relative performance of well-known BPM's on public datasets addressing the class imbalance problem. In this work, we apply eight classes of well-known BPMs, as suggested by a review of decades of literature, on a new public dataset named Freddie Mac Single-Family Loan-Level Dataset with resampling (i.e., adding synthetic minority samples) of the minority class to tackle class imbalance. Additionally, we apply some recent AI techniques (e.g., tree-based ensemble techniques) that demonstrate potentially better results on models trained with resampled data. In addition, from the analysis of 19 years (1999-2017) of data, we discover that models behave differently when presented with sudden changes in the economy (e.g., a global financial crisis) resulting in abrupt fluctuations in the national default rate. In summary, this study should aid practitioners/researchers in determining the appropriate model with respect to data that contains a class imbalance and various economic stages.

For many NLP applications, such as question answering and summarisation, the goal is to select the best solution from a large space of candidates to meet a particular user's needs. To address the lack of user-specific training data, we propose an interactive text ranking approach that actively selects pairs of candidates, from which the user selects the best. Unlike previous strategies, which attempt to learn a ranking across the whole candidate space, our method employs Bayesian optimisation to focus the user's labelling effort on high quality candidates and integrates prior knowledge in a Bayesian manner to cope better with small data scenarios. We apply our method to community question answering (cQA) and extractive summarisation, finding that it significantly outperforms existing interactive approaches. We also show that the ranking function learned by our method is an effective reward function for reinforcement learning, which improves the state of the art for interactive summarisation.

The ability to observe the effects of actions performed by others and to infer their intent, most likely goals, or course of action, is known as a plan or intention recognition cognitive capability and has long been one of the fundamental research challenges in AI. Deep learning has recently been making significant inroads on various pattern recognition problems, except for intention recognition. While extensively explored since the seventies, the problem remains unsolved for most interesting cases in various areas, ranging from natural language understanding to human behavior understanding based on video feeds. This paper compares symbolic inverse planning, one of the most investigated approaches to goal recognition, to deep learning using CNN and LTSM neural network architectures, on five synthetic benchmarks often used in the literature. The results show that the deep learning approach achieves better goal-prediction accuracy and timeliness than the symbolic cost-based plan recognizer in these domains. Although preliminary, these results point to interesting future research avenues.

We integrate information-theoretic concepts into the design and analysis of optimistic algorithms and Thompson sampling. By making a connection between information-theoretic quantities and confidence bounds, we obtain results that relate the per-period performance of the agent with its information gain about the environment, thus explicitly characterizing the exploration-exploitation tradeoff. The resulting cumulative regret bound depends on the agent's uncertainty over the environment and quantifies the value of prior information. We show applicability of this approach to several environments, including linear bandits, tabular MDPs, and factored MDPs. These examples demonstrate the potential of a general information-theoretic approach for the design and analysis of reinforcement learning algorithms.

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) are the probabilistic model that combines the strengths of both neural network (NN) and stochastic processes. As a result, BNN can combat overfitting and perform well in applications where data is limited. Earthquake rupture study is such a problem where data is insufficient, and scientists have to rely on many trial and error numerical or physical models. Lack of resources and computational expenses, often, it becomes hard to determine the reasons behind the earthquake rupture. In this work, a BNN has been used (1) to combat the small data problem and (2) to find out the parameter combinations responsible for earthquake rupture and (3) to estimate the uncertainty associated with earthquake rupture. Two thousand rupture simulations are used to train and test the model. A simple 2D rupture geometry is considered where the fault has a Gaussian geometric heterogeneity at the center, and eight parameters vary in each simulation. The test F1-score of BNN (0.8334), which is 2.34% higher than plain NN score. Results show that the parameters of rupture propagation have higher uncertainty than the rupture arrest. Normal stresses play a vital role in determining rupture propagation and are also the highest source of uncertainty, followed by the dynamic friction coefficient. Shear stress has a moderate role, whereas the geometric features such as the width and height of the fault are least significant and uncertain.

--Discovering human mobility patterns with geo-location data collected from smartphone users has been a hot research topic in recent years. In this paper, we attempt to discover daily mobile patterns based on GPS data. We view this problem from a probabilistic perspective in order to explore more information from the original GPS data compared to other conventional methods. A non-parameter Bayesian modeling method, Infinite Gaussian Mixture Model, is used to estimate the probability density for the daily mobility. Then, we use Kullback-Leibler divergence as the metrics to measure the similarity of different probability distributions. And combining Infinite Gaussian Mixture Model and Kullback-Leibler divergence, we derived an automatic clustering algorithm to discover mobility patterns for each individual user without setting the number of clusters in advance. In the experiments, the effectiveness of our method is validated on the real user data collected from different users. The results show that the IGMM-based algorithm outperforms the GMM-based algorithm. We also test our methods on the dataset with different lengths to discover the minimum data length for discovering mobility patterns. I NTRODUCTION S MARTPHONEdevices are equipped with multiple sensors that can record user behavior on the handsets. With the help of a large-scale smartphone usage data, researchers are able to study human behavior in the real world.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has become an integral part of modern-day security solutions for its capability of learning very complex functions and handling "Big Data". However, the lack of explainability and interpretability of successful AI models is a key stumbling block when trust in a model's prediction is critical. This leads to human intervention, which in turn results in a delayed response or decision. While there have been major advancements in the speed and performance of AI-based intrusion detection systems, the response is still at human speed when it comes to explaining and interpreting a specific prediction or decision. In this work, we infuse popular domain knowledge (i.e., CIA principles) in our model for better explainability and validate the approach on a network intrusion detection test case. Our experimental results suggest that the infusion of domain knowledge provides better explainability as well as a faster decision or response. In addition, the infused domain knowledge generalizes the model to work well with unknown attacks, as well as open the path to adapt to a large stream of network traffic from numerous IoT devices.

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) introduce uncertainty estimation to deep networks by performing Bayesian inference on network weights. However, such models bring the challenges of inference, and further BNNs with weight uncertainty rarely achieve superior performance to standard models. In this paper, we investigate a new line of Bayesian deep learning by performing Bayesian reasoning on the structure of deep neural networks. Drawing inspiration from the neural architecture search, we define the network structure as gating weights on the redundant operations between computational nodes, and apply stochastic variational inference techniques to learn the structure distributions of networks. Empirically, the proposed method substantially surpasses the advanced deep neural networks across a range of classification and segmentation tasks. More importantly, our approach also preserves benefits of Bayesian principles, producing improved uncertainty estimation than the strong baselines including MC dropout and variational BNNs algorithms (e.g. noisy EK-FAC).

Gibbs sampling is a Markov chain Monte Carlo method that is often used for learning and inference on graphical models. Minibatching, in which a small random subset of the graph is used at each iteration, can help make Gibbs sampling scale to large graphical models by reducing its computational cost. In this paper, we propose a new auxiliary-variable minibatched Gibbs sampling method, {\it Poisson-minibatching Gibbs}, which both produces unbiased samples and has a theoretical guarantee on its convergence rate. In comparison to previous minibatched Gibbs algorithms, Poisson-minibatching Gibbs supports fast sampling from continuous state spaces and avoids the need for a Metropolis-Hastings correction on discrete state spaces. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on multiple applications and in comparison with both plain Gibbs and previous minibatched methods.