Link: Bayesian Machine Learning in Python: A/B Testing coupon code udemy Traditional A/B testing has been around for a long time, and it's full of approximations and confusing definitions. In this course, while we will do traditional A/B testing in order to appreciate its complexity, what we will eventually get to is the Bayesian machine learning way of doing things. First, we'll see if we can improve on ... Bestseller by Lazy Programmer Inc. What you'll learn Use adaptive algorithms to improve A/B testing performance Understand the difference between Bayesian and frequentist statistics Apply Bayesian methods to A/B testing Description This course is all about A/B testing. A/B testing is used everywhere.

The success of neural networks in image classification has inspired various hardware implementations on embedded platforms such as Field Programmable Gate Arrays, embedded processors and Graphical Processing Units. These embedded platforms are constrained in terms of power, which is mainly consumed by the Multiply Accumulate operations and the memory accesses for weight fetching. Quantization and pruning have been proposed to address this issue. Though effective, these techniques do not take into account the underlying architecture of the embedded hardware. In this work, we propose PoET-BiN, a Look-Up Table based power efficient implementation on resource constrained embedded devices. A modified Decision Tree approach forms the backbone of the proposed implementation in the binary domain. A LUT access consumes far less power than the equivalent Multiply Accumulate operation it replaces, and the modified Decision Tree algorithm eliminates the need for memory accesses. We applied the PoET-BiN architecture to implement the classification layers of networks trained on MNIST, SVHN and CIFAR-10 datasets, with near state-of-the art results. The energy reduction for the classifier portion reaches up to six orders of magnitude compared to a floating point implementations and up to three orders of magnitude when compared to recent binary quantized neural networks.

Models that employ latent variables to capture structure in observed data lie at the heart of many current unsupervised learning algorithms, but exact maximum-likelihood learning for powerful and flexible latent-variable models is almost always intractable. Thus, state-of-the-art approaches either abandon the maximum-likelihood framework entirely, or else rely on a variety of variational approximations to the posterior distribution over the latents. Here, we propose an alternative approach that we call amortised learning. Rather than computing an approximation to the posterior over latents, we use a wake-sleep Monte-Carlo strategy to learn a function that directly estimates the maximum-likelihood parameter updates. Amortised learning is possible whenever samples of latents and observations can be simulated from the generative model, treating the model as a "black box". We demonstrate its effectiveness on a wide range of complex models, including those with latents that are discrete or supported on non-Euclidean spaces.

Likelihood-free inference for simulator-based statistical models has recently grown rapidly from its infancy to a useful tool for practitioners. However, models with more than a very small number of parameters as the target of inference have remained an enigma, in particular for the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) community. To advance the possibilities for performing likelihood-free inference in high-dimensional parameter spaces, here we introduce an extension of the popular Bayesian optimisation based approach to approximate discrepancy functions in a probabilistic manner which lends itself to an efficient exploration of the parameter space. Our method achieves computational scalability by using separate acquisition procedures for the discrepancies defined for different parameters. These efficient high-dimensional simulation acquisitions are combined with exponentiated loss-likelihoods to provide a misspecification-robust characterisation of the marginal posterior distribution for all model parameters. The method successfully performs computationally efficient inference in a 100-dimensional space on canonical examples and compares favourably to existing Copula-ABC methods. We further illustrate the potential of this approach by fitting a bacterial transmission dynamics model to daycare centre data, which provides biologically coherent results on the strain competition in a 30-dimensional parameter space.

We consider the problem of estimating a ranking on a set of items from noisy pairwise comparisons given item features. We address the fact that pairwise comparison data often reflects irrational choice, e.g. intransitivity. Our key observation is that two items compared in isolation from other items may be compared based on only a salient subset of features. Formalizing this framework, we propose the "salient feature preference model" and prove a sample complexity result for learning the parameters of our model and the underlying ranking with maximum likelihood estimation. We also provide empirical results that support our theoretical bounds and illustrate how our model explains systematic intransitivity. Finally we demonstrate strong performance of maximum likelihood estimation of our model on both synthetic data and two real data sets: the UT Zappos50K data set and comparison data about the compactness of legislative districts in the US.

Matrix factorization (MF) has been widely applied to collaborative filtering in recommendation systems. Its Bayesian variants can derive posterior distributions of user and item embeddings, and are more robust to sparse ratings. However, the Bayesian methods are restricted by their update rules for the posterior parameters due to the conjugacy of the priors and the likelihood. Neural networks can potentially address this issue by capturing complex mappings between the posterior parameters and the data. In this paper, we propose a variational auto-encoder based Bayesian MF framework. It leverages not only the data but also the information from the embeddings to approximate their joint posterior distribution. The approximation is an iterative procedure with cross feedback of user and item embeddings to the others' encoders. More specifically, user embeddings sampled in the previous iteration, alongside their ratings, are fed back into the item-side encoders to compute the posterior parameters for the item embeddings in the current iteration, and vice versa. The decoder network then reconstructs the data using the MF with the currently re-sampled user and item embeddings. We show the effectiveness of our framework in terms of reconstruction errors across five real-world datasets. We also perform ablation studies to illustrate the importance of the cross feedback component of our framework in lowering the reconstruction errors and accelerating the convergence.

Multinomial Logistic Regression is a well-studied tool for classification and has been widely used in fields like image processing, computer vision and, bioinformatics, to name a few. Under a supervised classification scenario, a Multinomial Logistic Regression model learns a weight vector to differentiate between any two classes by optimizing over the likelihood objective. With the advent of big data, the inundation of data has resulted in large dimensional weight vector and has also given rise to a huge number of classes, which makes the classical methods applicable for model estimation not computationally viable. To handle this issue, we here propose a parallel iterative algorithm: Parallel Iterative Algorithm for MultiNomial LOgistic Regression (PIANO) which is based on the Majorization Minimization procedure, and can parallely update each element of the weight vectors. Further, we also show that PIANO can be easily extended to solve the Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression problem - an extensively studied problem because of its attractive feature selection property. In particular, we work out the extension of PIANO to solve the Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression problem with l1 and l0 regularizations. We also prove that PIANO converges to a stationary point of the Multinomial and the Sparse Multinomial Logistic Regression problems. Simulations were conducted to compare PIANO with the existing methods, and it was found that the proposed algorithm performs better than the existing methods in terms of speed of convergence.

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA), a form of sleep-disordered breathing characterized by recurrent episodes of partial or complete airway obstruction during sleep, is a serious health problem, affecting an estimated 1-5% of elementary school-aged children [9, 2]. Even mild forms of untreated pediatric OSA may cause high blood pressure, behavioral challenges, or impeded growth. Compared to adults, the symptoms of childhood-onset OSA are more varied and change continuously with development, making diagnosis a difficult challenge. The complexity of the data from surveys, biomedical measurements, 3D facial photos, and time-series data calls for state of the art techniques from mathematics and data science. Clinical data, including that considered in confirming or ruling out a diagnosis of pediatric OSA, consist of high-dimensional multi-mode data with mixtures of variables of disparate types (e.g., nominal and categorical data of different scales, interval data, time-to-event and longitudinal outcomes) also called mixed or noncommensurate data.

In this paper I argue that the search for explainable models and interpretable decisions in AI must be reformulated in terms of the broader project of offering a pragmatic and naturalistic account of understanding in AI. Intuitively, the purpose of providing an explanation of a model or a decision is to make it understandable to its stakeholders. But without a previous grasp of what it means to say that an agent understands a model or a decision, the explanatory strategies will lack a well-defined goal. Aside from providing a clearer objective for XAI, focusing on understanding also allows us to relax the factivity condition on explanation, which is impossible to fulfill in many machine learning models, and to focus instead on the pragmatic conditions that determine the best fit between a model and the methods and devices deployed to understand it. After an examination of the different types of understanding discussed in the philosophical and psychological literature, I conclude that interpretative or approximation models not only provide the best way to achieve the objectual understanding of a machine learning model, but are also a necessary condition to achieve post-hoc interpretability. This conclusion is partly based on the shortcomings of the purely functionalist approach to post-hoc interpretability that seems to be predominant in most recent literature.

We present new results on the classical algorithm of variable elimination, which underlies many algorithms including for probabilistic inference. The results relate to exploiting functional dependencies, allowing one to perform inference and learning efficiently on models that have very large treewidth. The highlight of the advance is that it works with standard (dense) factors, without the need for sparse factors or techniques based on knowledge compilation that are commonly utilized. This is significant as it permits a direct implementation of the improved variable elimination algorithm using tensors and their operations, leading to extremely efficient implementations especially when learning model parameters. Moreover, the proposed technique does not require knowledge of the specific functional dependencies, only that they exist, so can be used when learning these dependencies. We illustrate the efficacy of our proposed algorithm by compiling Bayesian network queries into tensor graphs and then learning their parameters from labeled data using a standard tool for tensor computation.