Parameter estimation, statistical tests and confidence sets are the cornerstones of classical statistics that allow scientists to make inferences about the underlying process that generated the observed data. A key question is whether one can still construct hypothesis tests and confidence sets with proper coverage and high power in a so-called likelihood-free inference (LFI) setting; that is, a setting where the likelihood is not explicitly known but one can forward-simulate observable data according to a stochastic model. In this paper, we present $\texttt{ACORE}$ (Approximate Computation via Odds Ratio Estimation), a frequentist approach to LFI that first formulates the classical likelihood ratio test (LRT) as a parametrized classification problem, and then uses the equivalence of tests and confidence sets to build confidence regions for parameters of interest. We also present a goodness-of-fit procedure for checking whether the constructed tests and confidence regions are valid. $\texttt{ACORE}$ is based on the key observation that the LRT statistic, the rejection probability of the test, and the coverage of the confidence set are conditional distribution functions which often vary smoothly as a function of the parameters of interest. Hence, instead of relying solely on samples simulated at fixed parameter settings (as is the convention in standard Monte Carlo solutions), one can leverage machine learning tools and data simulated in the neighborhood of a parameter to improve estimates of quantities of interest. We demonstrate the efficacy of $\texttt{ACORE}$ with both theoretical and empirical results. Our implementation is available on Github.

The Dirichlet Belief Network~(DirBN) has been recently proposed as a promising approach in learning interpretable deep latent representations for objects. In this work, we leverage its interpretable modelling architecture and propose a deep dynamic probabilistic framework -- the Recurrent Dirichlet Belief Network~(Recurrent-DBN) -- to study interpretable hidden structures from dynamic relational data. The proposed Recurrent-DBN has the following merits: (1) it infers interpretable and organised hierarchical latent structures for objects within and across time steps; (2) it enables recurrent long-term temporal dependence modelling, which outperforms the one-order Markov descriptions in most of the dynamic probabilistic frameworks. In addition, we develop a new inference strategy, which first upward-and-backward propagates latent counts and then downward-and-forward samples variables, to enable efficient Gibbs sampling for the Recurrent-DBN. We apply the Recurrent-DBN to dynamic relational data problems. The extensive experiment results on real-world data validate the advantages of the Recurrent-DBN over the state-of-the-art models in interpretable latent structure discovery and improved link prediction performance.

Classifier calibration does not always go hand in hand with the classifier's ability to separate the classes. There are applications where good classifier calibration, i.e. the ability to produce accurate probability estimates, is more important than class separation. When the amount of data for training is limited, the traditional approach to improve calibration starts to crumble. In this article we show how generating more data for calibration is able to improve calibration algorithm performance in many cases where a classifier is not naturally producing well-calibrated outputs and the traditional approach fails. The proposed approach adds computational cost but considering that the main use case is with small data sets this extra computational cost stays insignificant and is comparable to other methods in prediction time. From the tested classifiers the largest improvement was detected with the random forest and naive Bayes classifiers. Therefore, the proposed approach can be recommended at least for those classifiers when the amount of data available for training is limited and good calibration is essential.

The point estimates of ReLU classification networks---arguably the most widely used neural network architecture---have been shown to yield arbitrarily high confidence far away from the training data. This architecture, in conjunction with a maximum a posteriori estimation scheme, is thus not calibrated nor robust. Approximate Bayesian inference has been empirically demonstrated to improve predictive uncertainty in neural networks, although the theoretical analysis of such Bayesian approximations is limited. We theoretically analyze approximate Gaussian posterior distributions on the weights of ReLU networks and show that they fix the overconfidence problem. Furthermore, we show that even a simplistic, thus cheap, Bayesian approximation, also fixes these issues. This indicates that a sufficient condition for a calibrated uncertainty on a ReLU network is ``to be a bit Bayesian''. These theoretical results validate the usage of last-layer Bayesian approximation and motivate a range of a fidelity-cost trade-off. We further validate these findings empirically via various standard experiments using common deep ReLU networks and Laplace approximations.

We address the problem of finding a minimal separator in an Andersson-Madigan-Perlman chain graph (AMP CG), namely, finding a set Z of nodes that separate a given non-adjacent pair of nodes such that no proper subset of Z separates that pair. We analyze several versions of this problem and offer polynomial-time algorithms for each. These include finding a minimal separator from a restricted set of nodes, finding a minimal separator for two given disjoint sets, and testing whether a given separator is minimal. We provide an extension of the decomposition approach for learning Bayesian networks (BNs) proposed by (Xie et. al.) to learn AMP CGs, which include BNs as a special case, under the faithfulness assumption and prove its correctness using the minimal separator results. The advantages of this decomposition approach hold in the more general setting: reduced complexity and increased power of computational independence tests. In addition, we show that the PC-like algorithm is order-dependent, in the sense that the output can depend on the order in which the variables are given. We propose two modifications of the PC-like algorithm that remove part or all of this order-dependence. Simulations under a variety of settings demonstrate the competitive performance of our decomposition-based method, called LCD-AMP, in comparison with the (modified version of) PC-like algorithm. In fact, the decomposition-based algorithm usually outperforms the PC-like algorithm. We empirically show that the results of both algorithms are more accurate and stable when the sample size is reasonably large and the underlying graph is sparse.

Robotic agents should be able to learn from sub-symbolic sensor data, and at the same time, be able to reason about objects and communicate with humans on a symbolic level. This raises the question of how to overcome the gap between symbolic and sub-symbolic artificial intelligence. We propose a semantic world modeling approach based on bottom-up object anchoring using an object-centered representation of the world. Perceptual anchoring processes continuous perceptual sensor data and maintains a correspondence to a symbolic representation. We extend the definitions of anchoring to handle multi-modal probability distributions and we couple the resulting symbol anchoring system to a probabilistic logic reasoner for performing inference. Furthermore, we use statistical relational learning to enable the anchoring framework to learn symbolic knowledge in the form of a set of probabilistic logic rules of the world from noisy and sub-symbolic sensor input. The resulting framework, which combines perceptual anchoring and statistical relational learning, is able to maintain a semantic world model of all the objects that have been perceived over time, while still exploiting the expressiveness of logical rules to reason about the state of objects which are not directly observed through sensory input data. To validate our approach we demonstrate, on the one hand, the ability of our system to perform probabilistic reasoning over multi-modal probability distributions, and on the other hand, the learning of probabilistic logical rules from anchored objects produced by perceptual observations. The learned logical rules are, subsequently, used to assess our proposed probabilistic anchoring procedure. We demonstrate our system in a setting involving object interactions where object occlusions arise and where probabilistic inference is needed to correctly anchor objects.

Causal effect estimation from observational data is a crucial but challenging task. Currently, only a limited number of data-driven causal effect estimation methods are available. These methods either only provide a bound estimation of the causal effect of a treatment on the outcome, or have impractical assumptions on the data or low efficiency although providing a unique estimation of the causal effect. In this paper, we identify a practical problem setting and propose an approach to achieving unique causal effect estimation from data with hidden variables under this setting. For the approach, we develop the theorems to support the discovery of the proper covariate sets for confounding adjustment (adjustment sets). Based on the theorems, two algorithms are presented for finding the proper adjustment sets from data with hidden variables to obtain unbiased and unique causal effect estimation. Experiments with benchmark Bayesian networks and real-world datasets have demonstrated the efficiency and effectiveness of the proposed algorithms, indicating the practicability of the identified problem setting and the potential of the approach in real-world applications.

The recent development of online recommender systems has a focus on collaborative ranking from implicit feedback, such as user clicks and purchases. Different from explicit ratings, which reflect graded user preferences, the implicit feedback only generates positive and unobserved labels. While considerable efforts have been made in this direction, the well-known pairwise and listwise approaches have still been limited by various challenges. Specifically, for the pairwise approaches, the assumption of independent pairwise preference is not always held in practice. Also, the listwise approaches cannot efficiently accommodate "ties" due to the precondition of the entire list permutation. To this end, in this paper, we propose a novel setwise Bayesian approach for collaborative ranking, namely SetRank, to inherently accommodate the characteristics of implicit feedback in recommender system. Specifically, SetRank aims at maximizing the posterior probability of novel setwise preference comparisons and can be implemented with matrix factorization and neural networks. Meanwhile, we also present the theoretical analysis of SetRank to show that the bound of excess risk can be proportional to $\sqrt{M/N}$, where $M$ and $N$ are the numbers of items and users, respectively. Finally, extensive experiments on four real-world datasets clearly validate the superiority of SetRank compared with various state-of-the-art baselines.

This paper will discuss the role of an artificially-intelligent computer system as critique-based, implicitorganizational, and an inherently necessary device, deployed in synchrony with parallel governmental policy, as a genuine means of capturing nation-population complexity in quantitative form, public contentment in societal-cooperative economic groups, regulatory proposition, and governance-effectiveness domains. It will discuss a solution involving a well-known algorithm and proffer an improved mechanism for knowledgerepresentation, thereby increasing range of utility, scope of influence (in terms of differentiating class sectors) and operational efficiency. It will finish with a discussion of these and other historical implications. Introduction The world created by humans to manage their daily affairs is growing in complexity beyond the comprehension capability of the vast majority of them. The political classes are vulnerable to implementation of policy that proves incorrect and damages the credibility of the state over the long term.

Bayes' theorem is one of the most important formulae in the field of mathematical statistics and probability, used to calculate the chances of a particular event occurring based on relevant existing information. Bayesian inference meanwhile leverages Bayes' theorem to update the probability of a hypothesis as additional data becomes available. New York University Assistant Professor Andrew Gordon Wilson addressed this question in his recent paper The Case for Bayesian Deep Learning. Paper Abstract: The key distinguishing property of a Bayesian approach is marginalization instead of optimization, not the prior, or Bayes rule. Bayesian inference is especially compelling for deep neural networks.