At present, the majority of the proposed Deep Learning (DL) methods provide point predictions without quantifying the models uncertainty. However, a quantification of the reliability of automated image analysis is essential, in particular in medicine when physicians rely on the results for making critical treatment decisions. In this work, we provide an entire framework to diagnose ischemic stroke patients incorporating Bayesian uncertainty into the analysis procedure. We present a Bayesian Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) yielding a probability for a stroke lesion on 2D Magnetic Resonance (MR) images with corresponding uncertainty information about the reliability of the prediction. For patient-level diagnoses, different aggregation methods are proposed and evaluated, which combine the single image-level predictions. Those methods take advantage of the uncertainty in image predictions and report model uncertainty at the patient-level. In a cohort of 511 patients, our Bayesian CNN achieved an accuracy of 95.33% at the image-level representing a significant improvement of 2% over a non-Bayesian counterpart. The best patient aggregation method yielded 95.89% of accuracy. Integrating uncertainty information about image predictions in aggregation models resulted in higher uncertainty measures to false patient classifications, which enabled to filter critical patient diagnoses that are supposed to be closer examined by a medical doctor. We therefore recommend using Bayesian approaches not only for improved image-level prediction and uncertainty estimation but also for the detection of uncertain aggregations at the patient-level.

Networks can describe the structure of a wide variety of complex systems by specifying how pairs of nodes interact. This choice of representation is flexible, but not necessarily appropriate when joint interactions between groups of nodes are needed to explain empirical phenomena. Networks remain the de facto standard, however, as relational datasets often fail to include higher-order interactions. Here, we introduce a Bayesian approach to reconstruct these missing higher-order interactions, from pairwise network data. Our method is based on the principle of parsimony and only includes higher-order structures when there is sufficient statistical evidence for them.

Quantum computing-based machine learning mainly focuses on quantum computing hardware that is experimentally challenging to realize due to requiring quantum gates that operate at very low temperature. Instead, we demonstrate the existence of a lower performance and much lower effort island on the accuracy-vs-qubits graph that may well be experimentally accessible with room temperature optics. This high temperature "quantum computing toy model" is nevertheless interesting to study as it allows rather accessible explanations of key concepts in quantum computing, in particular interference, entanglement, and the measurement process. We specifically study the problem of classifying an example from the MNIST and Fashion-MNIST datasets, subject to the constraint that we have to make a prediction after the detection of the very first photon that passed a coherently illuminated filter showing the example. Whereas a classical setup in which a photon is detected after falling on one of the 28 28 image pixels is limited to a (maximum likelihood estimation) accuracy of 21.27% for MNIST, respectively 18.27% for Fashion-MNIST, we show that the theoretically achievable accuracy when exploiting inference by optically transforming the quantum state of the photon is at least 41.27% for MNIST, respectively 36.14% for Fashion-MNIST. We show in detail how to train the corresponding transformation with TensorFlow and also explain how this example can serve as a teaching tool for the measurement process in quantum mechanics.

Despite the power of deep neural networks for a wide range of tasks, an overconfident prediction issue has limited their practical use in many safety-critical applications. Many recent works have been proposed to mitigate this issue, but most of them require either additional computational costs in training and/or inference phases or customized architectures to output confidence estimates separately. In this paper, we propose a method of training deep neural networks with a novel loss function, named Correctness Ranking Loss, which regularizes class probabilities explicitly to be better confidence estimates in terms of ordinal ranking according to confidence. The proposed method is easy to implement and can be applied to the existing architectures without any modification. Also, it has almost the same computational costs for training as conventional deep classifiers and outputs reliable predictions by a single inference. Extensive experimental results on classification benchmark datasets indicate that the proposed method helps networks to produce well-ranked confidence estimates. We also demonstrate that it is effective for the tasks closely related to confidence estimation, out-of-distribution detection and active learning.

Deep learning motivated by convolutional neural networks has been highly successful in a range of medical imaging problems like image classification, image segmentation, image synthesis etc. However for validation and interpretability, not only do we need the predictions made by the model but also how confident it is while making those predictions. This is important in safety critical applications for the people to accept it. In this work, we used an encoder decoder architecture based on variational inference techniques for segmenting brain tumour images. We compare different backbones architectures like U-Net, V-Net and FCN as sampling data from the conditional distribution for the encoder. We evaluate our work on the publicly available BRATS dataset using Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) and Intersection Over Union (IOU) as the evaluation metrics. Our model outperforms previous state of the art results while making use of uncertainty quantification in a principled bayesian manner.

This paper presents an empirical study regarding training probabilistic neural networks using training objectives derived from PAC-Bayes bounds. In the context of probabilistic neural networks, the output of training is a probability distribution over network weights. We present two training objectives, used here for the first time in connection with training neural networks. These two training objectives are derived from tight PAC-Bayes bounds. We also re-implement a previously used training objective based on a classical PAC-Bayes bound, to compare the properties of the predictors learned using the different training objectives. We compute risk certificates that are valid on any unseen examples for the learnt predictors. We further experiment with different types of priors on the weights (both data-free and data-dependent priors) and neural network architectures. Our experiments on MNIST and CIFAR-10 show that our training methods produce competitive test set errors and non-vacuous risk bounds with much tighter values than previous results in the literature, showing promise not only to guide the learning algorithm through bounding the risk but also for model selection. These observations suggest that the methods studied here might be good candidates for self-certified learning, in the sense of certifying the risk on any unseen data without the need for data-splitting protocols.

The goal of bayesian approach used in variational inference is to minimize the KL divergence between variational distribution and unknown posterior distribution. This is done by maximizing the Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO). A neural network is used to parametrize these distributions using Stochastic Gradient Descent. This work extends the work done by others by deriving the variational inference models. We show how SGD can be applied on bayesian neural networks by gradient estimation techniques. For validation, we have tested our model on 5 UCI datasets and the metrics chosen for evaluation are Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) error and negative log likelihood. Our work considerably beats the previous state of the art approaches for regression using bayesian neural networks.

There is a lot of hype around Artificial Intelligence (AI) and as I mentioned in my last blog there is weak and strong AI. Personally I prefer the term narrow instead of weak for AI as the AI we have today is focused on narrow or very specific tasks. AI in of itself is a large field and the best way of getting to understand AI is to get a grounding in the basics. I like to think of AI as being an onion, as it has layers of depth starting on the outside with AI and with Deep Learning at the centre. Don't worry I will explain what these terms mean in a little bit.

Shapley value is a concept from game theory. Recently, it has been used for explaining complex models produced by machine learning techniques. Although the mathematical definition of Shapley value is straight-forward, the implication of using it as a model interpretation tool is yet to be described. In the current paper, we analyzed Shapley value in the Bayesian network framework. We established the relationship between Shapley value and conditional independence, a key concept in both predictive and causal modeling. Our results indicate that, eliminating a variable with high Shapley value from a model do not necessarily impair predictive performance, whereas eliminating a variable with low Shapley value from a model could impair performance. Therefore, using Shapley value for feature selection do not result in the most parsimonious and predictively optimal model in the general case. More importantly, Shapley value of a variable do not reflect their causal relationship with the target of interest.

This paper proposes a careful separation between an entity's epistemic system and their decision system. Crucially, Bayesian counterfactuals are estimated by the epistemic system; not by the decision system. Based on this remark, I prove the existence of Newcomb-like problems for which an epistemic system necessarily expects the entity to make a counterfactually bad decision. I then address (a slight generalization of) Newcomb's paradox. I solve the specific case where the player believes that the predictor applies Bayes rule with a supset of all the data available to the player. I prove that the counterfactual optimality of the 1-Box strategy depends on the player's prior on the predictor's additional data. If these additional data are not expected to reduce sufficiently the predictor's uncertainty on the player's decision, then the player's epistemic system will counterfactually prefer to 2-Box. But if the predictor's data is believed to make them quasi-omniscient, then 1-Box will be counterfactually preferred. Implications of the analysis are then discussed. More generally, I argue that, to better understand or design an entity, it is useful to clearly separate the entity's epistemic, decision, but also data collection, reward and maintenance systems, whether the entity is human, algorithmic or institutional.