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L\'evy walks derived from a Bayesian decision-making model in non-stationary environments

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

L\'evy walks are found in the migratory behaviour patterns of various organisms, and the reason for this phenomenon has been much discussed. We use simulations to demonstrate that learning causes the changes in confidence level during decision-making in non-stationary environments, and results in L\'evy-walk-like patterns. One inference algorithm involving confidence is Bayesian inference. We propose an algorithm that introduces the effects of learning and forgetting into Bayesian inference, and simulate an imitation game in which two decision-making agents incorporating the algorithm estimate each other's internal models from their opponent's observational data. For forgetting without learning, agent confidence levels remained low due to a lack of information on the counterpart and Brownian walks occurred for a wide range of forgetting rates. Conversely, when learning was introduced, high confidence levels occasionally occurred even at high forgetting rates, and Brownian walks universally became L\'evy walks through a mixture of high- and low-confidence states.


The Last State of Artificial Intelligence in Project Management

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Artificial intelligence (AI) has been used to advance different fields, such as education, healthcare, and finance. However, the application of AI in the field of project management (PM) has not progressed equally. This paper reports on a systematic review of the published studies used to investigate the application of AI in PM. This systematic review identified relevant papers using Web of Science, Science Direct, and Google Scholar databases. Of the 652 articles found, 58 met the predefined criteria and were included in the review. Included papers were classified per the following dimensions: PM knowledge areas, PM processes, and AI techniques. The results indicated that the application of AI in PM was in its early stages and AI models have not applied for multiple PM processes especially in processes groups of project stakeholder management, project procurements management, and project communication management. However, the most popular PM processes among included papers were project effort prediction and cost estimation, and the most popular AI techniques were support vector machines, neural networks, and genetic algorithms.


uBAM: Unsupervised Behavior Analysis and Magnification using Deep Learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Motor behavior analysis is essential to biomedical research and clinical diagnostics as it provides a non-invasive strategy for identifying motor impairment and its change caused by interventions. State-of-the-art instrumented movement analysis is time- and cost-intensive, since it requires placing physical or virtual markers. Besides the effort required for marking keypoints or annotations necessary for training or finetuning a detector, users need to know the interesting behavior beforehand to provide meaningful keypoints. We introduce uBAM, a novel, automatic deep learning algorithm for behavior analysis by discovering and magnifying deviations. We propose an unsupervised learning of posture and behavior representations that enable an objective behavior comparison across subjects. A generative model with novel disentanglement of appearance and behavior magnifies subtle behavior differences across subjects directly in a video without requiring a detour via keypoints or annotations. Evaluations on rodents and human patients with neurological diseases demonstrate the wide applicability of our approach.


Neurosymbolic AI: The 3rd Wave

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Current advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) have achieved unprecedented impact across research communities and industry. Nevertheless, concerns about trust, safety, interpretability and accountability of AI were raised by influential thinkers. Many have identified the need for well-founded knowledge representation and reasoning to be integrated with deep learning and for sound explainability. Neural-symbolic computing has been an active area of research for many years seeking to bring together robust learning in neural networks with reasoning and explainability via symbolic representations for network models. In this paper, we relate recent and early research results in neurosymbolic AI with the objective of identifying the key ingredients of the next wave of AI systems. We focus on research that integrates in a principled way neural network-based learning with symbolic knowledge representation and logical reasoning. The insights provided by 20 years of neural-symbolic computing are shown to shed new light onto the increasingly prominent role of trust, safety, interpretability and accountability of AI. We also identify promising directions and challenges for the next decade of AI research from the perspective of neural-symbolic systems.


A connection between the pattern classification problem and the General Linear Model for statistical inference

arXiv.org Machine Learning

A connection between the General Linear Model (GLM) in combination with classical statistical inference and the machine learning (MLE)-based inference is described in this paper. Firstly, the estimation of the GLM parameters is expressed as a Linear Regression Model (LRM) of an indicator matrix, that is, in terms of the inverse problem of regressing the observations. In other words, both approaches, i.e. GLM and LRM, apply to different domains, the observation and the label domains, and are linked by a normalization value at the least-squares solution. Subsequently, from this relationship we derive a statistical test based on a more refined predictive algorithm, i.e. the (non)linear Support Vector Machine (SVM) that maximizes the class margin of separation, within a permutation analysis. The MLE-based inference employs a residual score and includes the upper bound to compute a better estimation of the actual (real) error. Experimental results demonstrate how the parameter estimations derived from each model resulted in different classification performances in the equivalent inverse problem. Moreover, using real data the aforementioned predictive algorithms within permutation tests, including such model-free estimators, are able to provide a good trade-off between type I error and statistical power.


On the Convergence of Continuous Constrained Optimization for Structure Learning

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Structure learning of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) is a fundamental problem in many scientific endeavors. A new line of work, based on NOTEARS (Zheng et al., 2018), reformulates the structure learning problem as a continuous optimization one by leveraging an algebraic characterization of DAG constraint. The constrained problem is typically solved using the augmented Lagrangian method (ALM) which is often preferred to the quadratic penalty method (QPM) by virtue of its convergence result that does not require the penalty coefficient to go to infinity, hence avoiding ill-conditioning. In this work, we review the standard convergence result of the ALM and show that the required conditions are not satisfied in the recent continuous constrained formulation for learning DAGs. We demonstrate empirically that its behavior is akin to that of the QPM which is prone to ill-conditioning, thus motivating the use of second-order method in this setting. We also establish the convergence guarantee of QPM to a DAG solution, under mild conditions, based on a property of the DAG constraint term.


Semantic Annotation for Tabular Data

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Detecting semantic concept of columns in tabular data is of particular interest to many applications ranging from data integration, cleaning, search to feature engineering and model building in machine learning. Recently, several works have proposed supervised learning-based or heuristic pattern-based approaches to semantic type annotation. Both have shortcomings that prevent them from generalizing over a large number of concepts or examples. Many neural network based methods also present scalability issues. Additionally, none of the known methods works well for numerical data. We propose $C^2$, a column to concept mapper that is based on a maximum likelihood estimation approach through ensembles. It is able to effectively utilize vast amounts of, albeit somewhat noisy, openly available table corpora in addition to two popular knowledge graphs to perform effective and efficient concept prediction for structured data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of $C^2$ over available techniques on 9 datasets, the most comprehensive comparison on this topic so far.


Quantum d-separation and quantum belief propagation

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The goal of this paper is to generalize classical d-separation and classical Belief Propagation (BP) to the quantum realm. Classical d-separation is an essential ingredient of most of Judea Pearl's work. It is crucial to all 3 rungs of what Pearl calls the 3 rungs of Causation. So having a quantum version of d-separation and BP probably implies that most of Pearl's Bayesian networks work, including his theory of causality, can be translated in a straightforward manner to the quantum realm.


Active Learning: Problem Settings and Recent Developments

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Supervised learning is a typical problem setting for machine learning that approximates the relationship between the input and output based on a given sets of input and output data. The accuracy of the approximation can be increased using more input and output data to build the model; however, obtaining the appropriate output for the input can be costly. A classic example is the crossbreeding of plants. The environmental conditions (e.g., average monthly temperature, type and amount of fertilizer used, watering conditions, weather) are the input, and the specific properties of the crops are the output. In this case, the controllable variables are related to the fertilizer and watering conditions, but it would take several months to years to perform experiments under various conditions and determine the optimal fertilizer composition and watering conditions.


A new interval-based aggregation approach based on bagging and Interval Agreement Approach (IAA) in ensemble learning

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The main aim in ensemble learning is using multiple individual classifiers outputs rather than one classifier output to aggregate them for more accurate classification. Generating an ensemble classifier generally is composed of three steps: selecting the base classifier, applying a sampling strategy to generate different individual classifiers and aggregation the classifiers outputs. This paper focuses on the classifiers outputs aggregation step and presents a new interval-based aggregation modeling using bagging resampling approach and Interval Agreement Approach (IAA) in ensemble learning. IAA is an interesting and practical aggregation approach in decision making which was introduced to combine decision makers opinions when they present their opinions by intervals. In this paper, in addition to implementing a new aggregation approach in ensemble learning, we designed some experiments to encourage researchers to use interval modeling in ensemble learning because it preserves more uncertainty and this leads to more accurate classification. For this purpose, we compared the results of implementing the proposed method to the majority vote as the most common and successful aggregation function in the literature on 10 medical data sets to show the better performance of the interval modeling and the proposed interval-based aggregation function in binary classification when it comes to ensemble learning. The results confirm the good performance of our proposed approach.