Measuring public opinion is a key focus during democratic elections, enabling candidates to gauge their popularity and alter their campaign strategies accordingly. Traditional survey polling remains the most popular estimation technique, despite its cost and time intensity, measurement errors, lack of real-time capabilities and lagged representation of public opinion. In recent years, Twitter opinion mining has attempted to combat these issues. Despite achieving promising results, it experiences its own set of shortcomings such as an unrepresentative sample population and a lack of long term stability. This paper aims to merge data from both these techniques using Bayesian data assimilation to arrive at a more accurate estimate of true public opinion for the Brexit referendum. This paper demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach using Twitter opinion data and survey data from trusted pollsters. Firstly, the possible existence of a time gap of 16 days between the two data sets is identified. This gap is subsequently incorporated into a proposed assimilation architecture. This method was found to adequately incorporate information from both sources and measure a strong upward trend in Leave support leading up to the Brexit referendum. The proposed technique provides useful estimates of true opinion, which is essential to future opinion measurement and forecasting research.

Binary classification, in the first place, deals with decision tools (classifiers) that facilitate the prediction of the classes of instances on the basis of the so-called features of the instances. Accordingly, the simplest classifiers are crisp (or discrete) in the sense of having the set {0, 1} as output range: 1 for'predict positive class', 0 for'predict negative class. Scoring (or soft) classifiers provide output in a continuous range, usually with the interpretation that high values indicate high likelihood of the instance belonging to the positive class, while low values suggest that membership of the negative class is more likely. In many applications of classification, there is a need for'calibrated' probabilistic classifiers which reflect the likelihood of the positive class given the features of an instance in a frequentist statistical sense (Platt, 2000; Zadrozny and Elkan, 2002; Cohen and Goldszmidt, 2004; Kull et al., 2017). How to best achieve good calibration and how to measure it are active research areas (Böken, 2021; Roelofs et al., 2020).

This paper proposes various new analysis techniques for Bayes networks in which conditional probability tables (CPTs) may contain symbolic variables. The key idea is to exploit scalable and powerful techniques for synthesis problems in parametric Markov chains. Our techniques are applicable to arbitrarily many, possibly dependent parameters that may occur in various CPTs. This lifts the severe restrictions on parameters, e.g., by restricting the number of parametrized CPTs to one or two, or by avoiding parameter dependencies between several CPTs, in existing works for parametric Bayes networks (pBNs). We describe how our techniques can be used for various pBN synthesis problems studied in the literature such as computing sensitivity functions (and values), simple and difference parameter tuning, ratio parameter tuning, and minimal change tuning. Experiments on several benchmarks show that our prototypical tool built on top of the probabilistic model checker Storm can handle several hundreds of parameters.

Stochastic sparse linear bandits offer a practical model for high-dimensional online decision-making problems and have a rich information-regret structure. In this work we explore the use of information-directed sampling (IDS), which naturally balances the information-regret trade-off. We develop a class of information-theoretic Bayesian regret bounds that nearly match existing lower bounds on a variety of problem instances, demonstrating the adaptivity of IDS. To efficiently implement sparse IDS, we propose an empirical Bayesian approach for sparse posterior sampling using a spike-and-slab Gaussian-Laplace prior. Numerical results demonstrate significant regret reductions by sparse IDS relative to several baselines.

Graphon is a nonparametric model that generates graphs with arbitrary sizes and can be induced from graphs easily. Based on this model, we propose a novel algorithmic framework called \textit{graphon autoencoder} to build an interpretable and scalable graph generative model. This framework treats observed graphs as induced graphons in functional space and derives their latent representations by an encoder that aggregates Chebshev graphon filters. A linear graphon factorization model works as a decoder, leveraging the latent representations to reconstruct the induced graphons (and the corresponding observed graphs). We develop an efficient learning algorithm to learn the encoder and the decoder, minimizing the Wasserstein distance between the model and data distributions. This algorithm takes the KL divergence of the graph distributions conditioned on different graphons as the underlying distance and leads to a reward-augmented maximum likelihood estimation. The graphon autoencoder provides a new paradigm to represent and generate graphs, which has good generalizability and transferability.

This review deals with Restricted Boltzmann Machine (RBM) under the light of statistical physics. The RBM is a classical family of Machine learning (ML) models which played a central role in the development of deep learning. Viewing it as a Spin Glass model and exhibiting various links with other models of statistical physics, we gather recent results dealing with mean-field theory in this context. First the functioning of the RBM can be analyzed via the phase diagrams obtained for various statistical ensembles of RBM leading in particular to identify a {\it compositional phase} where a small number of features or modes are combined to form complex patterns. Then we discuss recent works either able to devise mean-field based learning algorithms; either able to reproduce generic aspects of the learning process from some {\it ensemble dynamics equations} or/and from linear stability arguments.

Network activities recognition has always been a significant component of intrusion detection. However, with the increasing network traffic flow and complexity of network behavior, it is becoming more and more difficult to identify the specific behavior quickly and accurately by user network monitoring software. It also requires the system security staff to pay close attention to the latest intrusion monitoring technology and methods. All of these greatly increase the difficulty and complexity of intrusion detection tasks. The application of machine learning methods based on supervised classification technology would help to liberate the network security staff from the heavy and boring tasks. A finetuned model would accurately recognize user behavior, which could provide persistent monitoring with a relative high accuracy and good adaptability. Finally, the results of network activities recognition by J48 and Na\"ive Bayes algorithms are introduced and evaluated.

Momentum strategies are an important part of alternative investments and are at the heart of commodity trading advisors (CTAs). These strategies have however been found to have difficulties adjusting to rapid changes in market conditions, such as during the 2020 market crash. In particular, immediately after momentum turning points, where a trend reverses from an uptrend (downtrend) to a downtrend (uptrend), time-series momentum (TSMOM) strategies are prone to making bad bets. To improve the response to regime change, we introduce a novel approach, where we insert an online change-point detection (CPD) module into a Deep Momentum Network (DMN) [1904.04912] pipeline, which uses an LSTM deep-learning architecture to simultaneously learn both trend estimation and position sizing. Furthermore, our model is able to optimise the way in which it balances 1) a slow momentum strategy which exploits persisting trends, but does not overreact to localised price moves, and 2) a fast mean-reversion strategy regime by quickly flipping its position, then swapping it back again to exploit localised price moves. Our CPD module outputs a changepoint location and severity score, allowing our model to learn to respond to varying degrees of disequilibrium, or smaller and more localised changepoints, in a data driven manner. Using a portfolio of 50, liquid, continuous futures contracts over the period 1990-2020, the addition of the CPD module leads to an improvement in Sharpe ratio of $33\%$. Even more notably, this module is especially beneficial in periods of significant nonstationarity, and in particular, over the most recent years tested (2015-2020) the performance boost is approximately $400\%$. This is especially interesting as traditional momentum strategies have been underperforming in this period.

A key task in multi-label classification is modeling the structure between the involved classes. Modeling this structure by probabilistic and interpretable means enables application in a broad variety of tasks such as zero-shot learning or learning from incomplete data. In this paper, we present the probabilistic rule stacking learner (pRSL) which uses probabilistic propositional logic rules and belief propagation to combine the predictions of several underlying classifiers. We derive algorithms for exact and approximate inference and learning, and show that pRSL reaches state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark datasets. In the process, we introduce a novel multicategorical generalization of the noisy-or gate. Additionally, we report simulation results on the quality of loopy belief propagation algorithms for approximate inference in bipartite noisy-or networks.

With the increased interest in machine learning and big data problems, the need for large amounts of labelled data has also grown. However, it is often infeasible to get experts to label all of this data, which leads many practitioners to crowdsourcing solutions. In this paper, we present new techniques to improve the quality of the labels while attempting to reduce the cost. The naive approach to assigning labels is to adopt a majority vote method, however, in the context of data labelling, this is not always ideal as data labellers are not equally reliable. One might, instead, give higher priority to certain labellers through some kind of weighted vote based on past performance. This paper investigates the use of more sophisticated methods, such as Bayesian inference, to measure the performance of the labellers as well as the confidence of each label. The methods we propose follow an iterative improvement algorithm which attempts to use the least amount of workers necessary to achieve the desired confidence in the inferred label. This paper explores simulated binary classification problems with simulated workers and questions to test the proposed methods. Our methods outperform the standard voting methods in both cost and accuracy while maintaining higher reliability when there is disagreement within the crowd.