The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has rapidly spread throughout the world and while pregnant women present the same adverse outcome rates, they are underrepresented in clinical research. We collected clinical data of 155 test-positive COVID-19 pregnant women at Stony Brook University Hospital. Many of these collected data are of multivariate categorical type, where the number of possible outcomes grows exponentially as the dimension of data increases. We modeled the data within the unsupervised Bayesian framework and mapped them into a lower-dimensional space using latent Gaussian processes. The latent features in the lower dimensional space were further used for predicting if a pregnant woman would be admitted to a hospital due to COVID-19 or would remain with mild symptoms. We compared the prediction accuracy with the dummy/one-hot encoding of categorical data and found that the latent Gaussian process had better accuracy.

This work focuses on improving uncertainty estimation in the field of object classification from RGB images and demonstrates its benefits in two robotic applications. We employ a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN), and evaluate two practical inference techniques to obtain better uncertainty estimates, namely Concrete Dropout (CDP) and Kronecker-factored Laplace Approximation (LAP). We show a performance increase using more reliable uncertainty estimates as unary potentials within a Conditional Random Field (CRF), which is able to incorporate contextual information as well. Furthermore, the obtained uncertainties are exploited to achieve domain adaptation in a semi-supervised manner, which requires less manual efforts in annotating data. We evaluate our approach on two public benchmark datasets that are relevant for robot perception tasks.

Transfer learning where the behavior of extracting transferable knowledge from the source domain(s) and reusing this knowledge to target domain has become a research area of great interest in the field of artificial intelligence. Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have been recognized as a powerful tool for modeling complex systems with many advantages, e.g., the ability to handle uncertainty and possessing good interpretability. Considering the success of these two aforementioned research areas, it seems natural to apply PGMs to transfer learning. However, although there are already some excellent PGMs specific to transfer learning in the literature, the potential of PGMs for this problem is still grossly underestimated. This paper aims to boost the development of PGMs for transfer learning by 1) examining the pilot studies on PGMs specific to transfer learning, i.e., analyzing and summarizing the existing mechanisms particularly designed for knowledge transfer; 2) discussing examples of real-world transfer problems where existing PGMs have been successfully applied; and 3) exploring several potential research directions on transfer learning using PGM.

This paper studies detecting anomalous edges in directed graphs that model social networks. We exploit edge exchangeability as a criterion for distinguishing anomalous edges from normal edges. Then we present an anomaly detector based on conformal prediction theory; this detector has a guaranteed upper bound for false positive rate. In numerical experiments, we show that the proposed algorithm achieves superior performance to baseline methods.

Learning from human feedback has shown to be a useful approach in acquiring robot reward functions. However, expert feedback is often assumed to be drawn from an underlying unimodal reward function. This assumption does not always hold including in settings where multiple experts provide data or when a single expert provides data for different tasks -- we thus go beyond learning a unimodal reward and focus on learning a multimodal reward function. We formulate the multimodal reward learning as a mixture learning problem and develop a novel ranking-based learning approach, where the experts are only required to rank a given set of trajectories. Furthermore, as access to interaction data is often expensive in robotics, we develop an active querying approach to accelerate the learning process. We conduct experiments and user studies using a multi-task variant of OpenAI's LunarLander and a real Fetch robot, where we collect data from multiple users with different preferences. The results suggest that our approach can efficiently learn multimodal reward functions, and improve data-efficiency over benchmark methods that we adapt to our learning problem.

Entity linking (EL) is the process of linking entity mentions appearing in web text with their corresponding entities in a knowledge base. EL plays an important role in the fields of knowledge engineering and data mining, underlying a variety of downstream applications such as knowledge base population, content analysis, relation extraction, and question answering. In recent years, deep learning (DL), which has achieved tremendous success in various domains, has also been leveraged in EL methods to surpass traditional machine learning based methods and yield the state-of-the-art performance. In this survey, we present a comprehensive review and analysis of existing DL based EL methods. First of all, we propose a new taxonomy, which organizes existing DL based EL methods using three axes: embedding, feature, and algorithm. Then we systematically survey the representative EL methods along the three axes of the taxonomy. Later, we introduce ten commonly used EL data sets and give a quantitative performance analysis of DL based EL methods over these data sets. Finally, we discuss the remaining limitations of existing methods and highlight some promising future directions.

Have you ever noticed emails being categorized into different buckets and automatically being marked as important, spam, promotions, etc? And if you have, has it really piqued your curiosity as to…

A transition to a low-carbon electricity supply is crucial to limit the impacts of climate change. Reducing carbon emissions could help prevent the world from reaching a tipping point, where runaway emissions are likely. Runaway emissions could lead to extremes in weather conditions around the world -- especially in problematic regions unable to cope with these conditions. However, the movement to a low-carbon energy supply can not happen instantaneously due to the existing fossil-fuel infrastructure and the requirement to maintain a reliable energy supply. Therefore, a low-carbon transition is required, however, the decisions various stakeholders should make over the coming decades to reduce these carbon emissions are not obvious. This is due to many long-term uncertainties, such as electricity, fuel and generation costs, human behaviour and the size of electricity demand. A well choreographed low-carbon transition is, therefore, required between all of the heterogenous actors in the system, as opposed to changing the behaviour of a single, centralised actor. The objective of this thesis is to create a novel, open-source agent-based model to better understand the manner in which the whole electricity market reacts to different factors using state-of-the-art machine learning and artificial intelligence methods. In contrast to other works, this thesis looks at both the long-term and short-term impact that different behaviours have on the electricity market by using these state-of-the-art methods.

We present an overview of the second edition of the CheckThat! Lab at CLEF 2019. The lab featured two tasks in two different languages: English and Arabic. Task 1 (English) challenged the participating systems to predict which claims in a political debate or speech should be prioritized for fact-checking. Task 2 (Arabic) asked to (A) rank a given set of Web pages with respect to a check-worthy claim based on their usefulness for fact-checking that claim, (B) classify these same Web pages according to their degree of usefulness for fact-checking the target claim, (C) identify useful passages from these pages, and (D) use the useful pages to predict the claim's factuality. CheckThat! provided a full evaluation framework, consisting of data in English (derived from fact-checking sources) and Arabic (gathered and annotated from scratch) and evaluation based on mean average precision (MAP) and normalized discounted cumulative gain (nDCG) for ranking, and F1 for classification. A total of 47 teams registered to participate in this lab, and fourteen of them actually submitted runs (compared to nine last year). The evaluation results show that the most successful approaches to Task 1 used various neural networks and logistic regression. As for Task 2, learning-to-rank was used by the highest scoring runs for subtask A, while different classifiers were used in the other subtasks. We release to the research community all datasets from the lab as well as the evaluation scripts, which should enable further research in the important tasks of check-worthiness estimation and automatic claim verification.

The rampant adoption of ML methodologies has revealed that models are usually adopted to make decisions without taking into account the uncertainties in their predictions. More critically, they can be vulnerable to adversarial examples. Thus, we believe that developing ML systems that take into account predictive uncertainties and are robust against adversarial examples is a must for critical, real-world tasks. We start with a case study in retailing. We propose a robust implementation of the Nerlove-Arrow model using a Bayesian structural time series model. Its Bayesian nature facilitates incorporating prior information reflecting the manager's views, which can be updated with relevant data. However, this case adopted classical Bayesian techniques, such as the Gibbs sampler. Nowadays, the ML landscape is pervaded with neural networks and this chapter also surveys current developments in this sub-field. Then, we tackle the problem of scaling Bayesian inference to complex models and large data regimes. In the first part, we propose a unifying view of two different Bayesian inference algorithms, Stochastic Gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo (SG-MCMC) and Stein Variational Gradient Descent (SVGD), leading to improved and efficient novel sampling schemes. In the second part, we develop a framework to boost the efficiency of Bayesian inference in probabilistic models by embedding a Markov chain sampler within a variational posterior approximation. After that, we present an alternative perspective on adversarial classification based on adversarial risk analysis, and leveraging the scalable Bayesian approaches from chapter 2. In chapter 4 we turn to reinforcement learning, introducing Threatened Markov Decision Processes, showing the benefits of accounting for adversaries in RL while the agent learns.