This paper presents a methodology-centered transfer learning framework for fragility adaptation under domain shift, class imbalance, and scarce target labels while preserving engineering interpretability and supporting decision-making under uncertainty. Four transfer learning strategies (instance-based, parameter-based, hierarchical Bayesian, and multi-source) are demonstrated through three complementary case studies: (i) instance-based transfer learning via importance weighting, demonstrated on coastal bridge fragility using Hurricane Katrina observations; (ii) parameter-based transfer learning together with hierarchical Bayesian transfer learning, enabling partial pooling across strata and posterior uncertainty quantification, demonstrated on residential building fragility using Hurricane Ian observations; and (iii) multi-source transfer learning that fuses multiple analytical fragility models with learned source weights and regularized target-domain adaptation, demonstrated on seismic bridge fragility using observations from the 2001 Nisqually earthquake. Across these case studies, direct transfer of source models (i.e. using existing state-of-the-art models) fails under domain shift and severe class imbalance, while targeted adaptation substantially improves failure detection and predictive stability in low-data regimes. These findings highlight the need for systematic guidance on diagnostics, strategy selection, and uncertainty reporting when developing and adapting fragility models.

We study the generalized linear bandit (GLB) problem, a contextual multi-armed bandit framework that extends the classical linear model by incorporating a nonlinear link function, thereby modeling a broad class of reward distributions such as Bernoulli and Poisson. While GLBs are widely applicable to real-world scenarios, their non-linear nature introduces significant challenges in achieving both computational and statistical efficiency. Existing methods typically trade off between two objectives, either incurring high per-round costs for optimal regret guarantees or compromising statistical efficiency to enable constant-time updates. In this paper, we propose a jointly efficient algorithm that attains a nearly optimal regret bound with O(1)time and space complexities per round. The core of our method is a tight confidence set for the online mirror descent (OMD) estimator, which is derived through a novel analysis that leverages the notion of mix loss from online prediction. The analysis shows that our OMD estimator, even with its one-pass updates, achieves statistical efficiency comparable to maximum likelihood estimation, thereby leading to a jointly efficient optimistic method.

Bayesian Optimization is a widely used method for optimizing expensive black-box functions, relying on probabilistic surrogate models such as Gaussian Processes. The quality of the surrogate model is crucial for good optimization performance, especially in the few-shot setting where only a small number of batches of points can be evaluated. In this setting, the initialization plays a critical role in shaping the surrogate's predictive quality and guiding subsequent optimization. Despite this, practitioners typically rely on (quasi-)random designs to cover the input space. However, such approaches neglect two key factors: (a) space-filling designs may not be desirable to reduce predictive uncertainty, and (b) efficient hyperparameter learning during initialization is essential for high-quality prediction, which may conflict with space-filling designs. To address these limitations, we propose Hyperparameter-Informed Predictive Exploration (HIPE), a novel acquisition strategy that balances predictive uncertainty reduction with hyperparameter learning using information-theoretic principles. We derive a closed-form expression for HIPE in the Gaussian Process setting and demonstrate its effectiveness through extensive experiments in active learning and few-shot BO. Our results show that HIPE outperforms standard initialization strategies in terms of predictive accuracy, hyperparameter identification, and subsequent optimization performance, particularly in large-batch, few-shot settings relevant to many real-world Bayesian Optimization applications.

Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA) offers a cost-effective solution for fine-tuning large language models (LLMs), but it often produces overconfident predictions in datascarce few-shot settings. To address this issue, several classical statistical learning approaches have been repurposed for scalable uncertainty-aware LoRA fine-tuning. However, these approaches neglect how input characteristics affect the predictive uncertainty estimates. To address this limitation, we propose Contextual Low-Rank Adaptation (C-LoRA) as a novel uncertainty-aware and parameter efficient finetuning approach, by developing new lightweight LoRA modules contextualized to each input data sample to dynamically adapt uncertainty estimates. Incorporating data-driven contexts into the parameter posteriors, C-LoRA mitigates overfitting, achieves well-calibrated uncertainties, and yields robust predictions.

The VC-dimension is a well-studied and fundamental complexity measure of a set system (or hypergraph) that is central to many areas of machine learning. We establish several new results on the complexity of computing the VC-dimension. In particular, given a hypergraph H = (V,E), we prove that the naive 2O(|V|)-time algorithm is asymptotically tight under the Exponential Time Hypothesis (ETH). We then prove that the problem admits a 1-additive fixed-parameter approximation algorithm when parameterized by the maximum degree of Hand a fixed-parameter algorithm when parameterized by its dimension, and that these are essentially the only such exploitable structural parameters.

This work introduces a novel approach, Pairwise Epistemic Estimators (PairEpEsts), for epistemic uncertainty estimation in ensemble models for regression tasks using pairwise-distance estimators (PaiDEs). By utilizing the pairwise distances between model components, PaiDEs establish bounds on entropy. We leverage this capability to enhance the performance of Bayesian Active Learning by Disagreement (BALD). Notably, unlike sample-based Monte Carlo estimators, PairEpEsts can estimate epistemic uncertainty up to 100 times faster and demonstrate superior performance in higher dimensions. To validate our approach, we conducted a varied series of regression experiments on commonly used benchmarks: 1D sinusoidal data, Pendulum, Hopper, Ant, and Humanoid, demonstrating PairEpEsts' advantage over baselines in high-dimensional regression active learning.

Marked Temporal Point Process (MTPP) has been well studied to model the event distribution in marked event streams, which can be used to predict the mark and arrival time of the next event. However, existing studies overlook that the distribution of event marks is highly imbalanced in many real-world applications, with some marks being frequent but others rare. The imbalance poses a significant challenge to the performance of the next event prediction, especially for events of rare marks. To address this issue, we propose a thresholding method, which learns thresholds to tune the mark probability normalized by the mark's prior probability to optimize mark prediction, rather than predicting the mark directly based on the mark probability as in existing studies. In conjunction with this method, we predict the mark first and then the time. In particular, we develop a novel neural MTPP model to support effective time sampling and estimation of mark probability without computationally expensive numerical improper integration. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate the superior performance of our solution against various baselines for the next event mark and time prediction.

One way to address the known limitations of backpropagation through time is to directly adjust neural activities during the learning process. However, it remains unclear how to effectively use feedback to shape RNN dynamics. Here, we introduce error forcing (EF), where the network activity is guided orthogonally toward the zero-error manifold during learning. This method contrasts with alternatives like teaching forcing, which impose stronger constraints on neural activity and thus induce larger feedback influence on circuit dynamics. Furthermore, EF can be understood from a Bayesian perspective as a form of approximate dynamic inference. Empirically, EF consistently outperforms other learning algorithms across several tasks and its benefits persist when additional biological constraints are taken into account. Overall, EF is a powerful temporal credit assignment mechanism and a promising candidate model for learning in biological systems.

Neural simulation-based inference (SBI) is a popular set of methods for Bayesian inference when models are only available in the form of a simulator. These methods are widely used in the sciences and engineering, where writing down a likelihood can be significantly more challenging than constructing a simulator. However, the performance of neural SBI can suffer when simulators are computationally expensive, thereby limiting the number of simulations that can be performed. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to neural SBI which leverages multilevel Monte Carlo techniques for settings where several simulators of varying cost and fidelity are available. We demonstrate through both theoretical analysis and extensive experiments that our method can significantly enhance the accuracy of SBI methods given a fixed computational budget.

Quantifying uncertainty in deep regression models is important both for understanding the confidence of the model and for safe decision-making in high-risk domains. Existing approaches that yield prediction intervals overlook distributional information, neglecting the effect of multimodal or asymmetric distributions on decision-making.