Recently, many applications have been devoted to understanding and revealing causal rather than associative relations among variables. One approach in the context of time series is that of synthetic controls (Abadie and Gardeazabal, 2003) and various extensions. This is based on the idea of recovering the counterfactual outcome that would have been observed had an intervention not taken place. This article contributes to expanding and generalizing this class of models, allowing for non-linearity in a nonparametric manner through Gaussian Processes. These models have high degree of flexibility in building the counterfactual outcome, using all types of information and without any limitations on the functional form. They also make it possible to assess the robustness of the synthetic controls, as we can use the posterior distributions of the Gaussian Processes to quantify uncertainty stemming from the functional form estimation. Lastly, as the models learn the relationships which prevail amongst all associated variables, there is no need to match the time series on a calendar basis, making the most of the available data.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a brain condition characterized by diverse signs and symptoms that appear in early childhood. ASD is also associated with communication deficits and repetitive behavior in affected individuals. Various ASD detection methods have been developed, including neuroimaging modalities and psychological tests. Among these methods, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) imaging modalities are of paramount importance to physicians. Clinicians rely on MRI modalities to diagnose ASD accurately. The MRI modalities are non-invasive methods that include functional (fMRI) and structural (sMRI) neuroimaging methods. However, diagnosing ASD with fMRI and sMRI for specialists is often laborious and time-consuming; therefore, several computer-aided design systems (CADS) based on artificial intelligence (AI) have been developed to assist specialist physicians. Conventional machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) are the most popular schemes of AI used for diagnosing ASD. This study aims to review the automated detection of ASD using AI. We review several CADS that have been developed using ML techniques for the automated diagnosis of ASD using MRI modalities. There has been very limited work on the use of DL techniques to develop automated diagnostic models for ASD. A summary of the studies developed using DL is provided in the Supplementary Appendix. Then, the challenges encountered during the automated diagnosis of ASD using MRI and AI techniques are described in detail. Additionally, a graphical comparison of studies using ML and DL to diagnose ASD automatically is discussed. We suggest future approaches to detecting ASDs using AI techniques and MRI neuroimaging.

We consider the problem of modeling heterogeneous materials where micro-scale dynamics and interactions affect global behavior. In the presence of heterogeneities in material microstructure it is often impractical, if not impossible, to provide quantitative characterization of material response. The goal of this work is to develop a Bayesian framework for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in material response prediction when using nonlocal models. Our approach combines the nonlocal operator regression (NOR) technique and Bayesian inference. Specifically, we use a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to sample the posterior probability distribution on parameters involved in the nonlocal constitutive law, and associated modeling discrepancies relative to higher fidelity computations. As an application, we consider the propagation of stress waves through a one-dimensional heterogeneous bar with randomly generated microstructure. Several numerical tests illustrate the construction, enabling UQ in nonlocal model predictions. Although nonlocal models have become popular means for homogenization, their statistical calibration with respect to high-fidelity models has not been presented before. This work is a first step towards statistical characterization of nonlocal model discrepancy in the context of homogenization.

Among the many merits of Roman Słowiński in his so long and so rich scientific carrier, we have to consider his pioneering approach to the use of artificial intelligence methodologies to decision support, and, in particular, to Multiple Criteria Decision Aiding (MCDA) (for an updated state of the art see [48]). In this perspective, the proposal and the development of the Dominance-based Rough Set Approach (DRSA) is a cornerstone in the domain. The DRSA basic idea of a decision support procedure based on a decision model expressed in natural language and obtained from simple preference information in terms of exemplary decisions has attracted the interest of experts and it is now considered one of the three main approaches to MCDA, together with the classical Multiple Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) [58] and the outranking approach [75]. In fact, DRSA is not a mere application to MCDA of concepts and tools already proposed and developed in the domain of artificial intelligence, knowledge discovery, data mining and machine learning. Indeed, consideration of preference orders typical for MCDA problems required a reformulation of many important concepts and methodologies, so that DRSA became a methodology viable and interesting per se also in these domains. Consequently, after more or less 25 years from the proposal of DRSA, we try to present a first assessment taking into consideration the basic ideas and the main developments.

Conventional frequentist learning is known to yield poorly calibrated models that fail to reliably quantify the uncertainty of their decisions. Bayesian learning can improve calibration, but formal guarantees apply only under restrictive assumptions about correct model specification. Conformal prediction (CP) offers a general framework for the design of set predictors with calibration guarantees that hold regardless of the underlying data generation mechanism. However, when training data are limited, CP tends to produce large, and hence uninformative, predicted sets. This paper introduces a novel meta-learning solution that aims at reducing the set prediction size. Unlike prior work, the proposed meta-learning scheme, referred to as meta-XB, (i) builds on cross-validation-based CP, rather than the less efficient validation-based CP; and (ii) preserves formal per-task calibration guarantees, rather than less stringent task-marginal guarantees. Finally, meta-XB is extended to adaptive non-conformal scores, which are shown empirically to further enhance marginal per-input calibration.

Applying Reinforcement learning (RL) following maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) pre-training is a versatile method for enhancing neural machine translation (NMT) performance. However, recent work has argued that the gains produced by RL for NMT are mostly due to promoting tokens that have already received a fairly high probability in pre-training. We hypothesize that the large action space is a main obstacle to RL's effectiveness in MT, and conduct two sets of experiments that lend support to our hypothesis. First, we find that reducing the size of the vocabulary improves RL's effectiveness. Second, we find that effectively reducing the dimension of the action space without changing the vocabulary also yields notable improvement as evaluated by BLEU, semantic similarity, and human evaluation. Indeed, by initializing the network's final fully connected layer (that maps the network's internal dimension to the vocabulary dimension), with a layer that generalizes over similar actions, we obtain a substantial improvement in RL performance: 1.5 BLEU points on average.

Knowledge Tracing (KT), which aims to model student knowledge level and predict their performance, is one of the most important applications of user modeling. Modern KT approaches model and maintain an up-to-date state of student knowledge over a set of course concepts according to students' historical performance in attempting the problems. However, KT approaches were designed to model knowledge by observing relatively small problem-solving steps in Intelligent Tutoring Systems. While these approaches were applied successfully to model student knowledge by observing student solutions for simple problems, they do not perform well for modeling complex problem solving in students.M ost importantly, current models assume that all problem attempts are equally valuable in quantifying current student knowledge.However, for complex problems that involve many concepts at the same time, this assumption is deficient. In this paper, we argue that not all attempts are equivalently important in discovering students' knowledge state, and some attempts can be summarized together to better represent student performance. We propose a novel student knowledge tracing approach, Granular RAnk based TEnsor factorization (GRATE), that dynamically selects student attempts that can be aggregated while predicting students' performance in problems and discovering the concepts presented in them. Our experiments on three real-world datasets demonstrate the improved performance of GRATE, compared to the state-of-the-art baselines, in the task of student performance prediction. Our further analysis shows that attempt aggregation eliminates the unnecessary fluctuations from students' discovered knowledge states and helps in discovering complex latent concepts in the problems.

Variational Bayesian posterior inference often requires simplifying approximations such as mean-field parametrisation to ensure tractability. However, prior work has associated the variational mean-field approximation for Bayesian neural networks with underfitting in the case of small datasets or large model sizes. In this work, we show that invariances in the likelihood function of over-parametrised models contribute to this phenomenon because these invariances complicate the structure of the posterior by introducing discrete and/or continuous modes which cannot be well approximated by Gaussian mean-field distributions. In particular, we show that the mean-field approximation has an additional gap in the evidence lower bound compared to a purpose-built posterior that takes into account the known invariances. Importantly, this invariance gap is not constant; it vanishes as the approximation reverts to the prior. We proceed by first considering translation invariances in a linear model with a single data point in detail. We show that, while the true posterior can be constructed from a mean-field parametrisation, this is achieved only if the objective function takes into account the invariance gap. Then, we transfer our analysis of the linear model to neural networks. Our analysis provides a framework for future work to explore solutions to the invariance problem.

The acquisition function, a critical component in Bayesian optimization (BO), can often be written as the expectation of a utility function under a surrogate model. However, to ensure that acquisition functions are tractable to optimize, restrictions must be placed on the surrogate model and utility function. To extend BO to a broader class of models and utilities, we propose likelihood-free BO (LFBO), an approach based on likelihood-free inference. LFBO directly models the acquisition function without having to separately perform inference with a probabilistic surrogate model. We show that computing the acquisition function in LFBO can be reduced to optimizing a weighted classification problem, where the weights correspond to the utility being chosen. By choosing the utility function for expected improvement (EI), LFBO outperforms various state-of-the-art black-box optimization methods on several real-world optimization problems. LFBO can also effectively leverage composite structures of the objective function, which further improves its regret by several orders of magnitude.

You wake up one morning feeling a bit unwell and you decide to pay a visit to the physician. The physician after basic examinations runs some tests for a rare disease which happens to only 1 in a thousand people.