We provide time- and sample-efficient algorithms for learning and testing latent-tree Ising models, i.e. Ising models that may only be observed at their leaf nodes. On the learning side, we obtain efficient algorithms for learning a tree-structured Ising model whose leaf node distribution is close in Total Variation Distance, improving on the results of prior work. On the testing side, we provide an efficient algorithm with fewer samples for testing whether two latent-tree Ising models have leaf-node distributions that are close or far in Total Variation distance. We obtain our algorithms by showing novel localization results for the total variation distance between the leaf-node distributions of tree-structured Ising models, in terms of their marginals on pairs of leaves.

We consider Bayesian linear regression with sparsity-indu cing prior and design efficient sampling algorithms leveraging posterior contraction properties. A quasi-likelihood with Gaussian spike-and-slab (that is favorable both statistically and computation ally) is investigated and two algorithms based on Gibbs sampling and Stochastic Localization are ana lyzed, both under the same (quite natural) statistical assumptions that also enable valid in ference on the sparse planted signal. The benefit of the Stochastic Localization sampler is particula rly prominent for data matrix that is not well-designed.

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having access to the true posterior is guaranteed to prevent catastrophic forgetting in Bayesian neural networks. To do this we perform sequential Bayesian inference using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. We propagate the posterior as a prior for new tasks by fitting a density estimator on Hamiltonian Monte Carlo samples. We find that this approach fails to prevent catastrophic forgetting demonstrating the difficulty in performing sequential Bayesian inference in neural networks. From there we study simple analytical examples of sequential Bayesian inference and CL and highlight the issue of model misspecification which can lead to sub-optimal continual learning performance despite exact inference. Furthermore, we discuss how task data imbalances can cause forgetting. From these limitations, we argue that we need probabilistic models of the continual learning generative process rather than relying on sequential Bayesian inference over Bayesian neural network weights. In this vein, we also propose a simple baseline called Prototypical Bayesian Continual Learning, which is competitive with state-of-the-art Bayesian continual learning methods on class incremental continual learning vision benchmarks.

Neural Posterior Estimation methods for simulation-based inference can be ill-suited for dealing with posterior distributions obtained by conditioning on multiple observations, as they tend to require a large number of simulator calls to learn accurate approximations. In contrast, Neural Likelihood Estimation methods can handle multiple observations at inference time after learning from individual observations, but they rely on standard inference methods, such as MCMC or variational inference, which come with certain performance drawbacks. We introduce a new method based on conditional score modeling that enjoys the benefits of both approaches. We model the scores of the (diffused) posterior distributions induced by individual observations, and introduce a way of combining the learned scores to approximately sample from the target posterior distribution. Our approach is sample-efficient, can naturally aggregate multiple observations at inference time, and avoids the drawbacks of standard inference methods.

Collision avoidance in the presence of dynamic obstacles in unknown environments is one of the most critical challenges for unmanned systems. In this paper, we present a method that identifies obstacles in terms of ellipsoids to estimate linear and angular obstacle velocities. Our proposed method is based on the idea of any object can be approximately expressed by ellipsoids. To achieve this, we propose a method based on variational Bayesian estimation of Gaussian mixture model, the Kyachiyan algorithm, and a refinement algorithm. Our proposed method does not require knowledge of the number of clusters and can operate in real-time, unlike existing optimization-based methods. In addition, we define an ellipsoid-based feature vector to match obstacles given two timely close point frames. Our method can be applied to any environment with static and dynamic obstacles, including the ones with rotating obstacles. We compare our algorithm with other clustering methods and show that when coupled with a trajectory planner, the overall system can efficiently traverse unknown environments in the presence of dynamic obstacles.

Data-driven soft sensors are essential for achieving accurate perception through reliable state inference. However, developing representative soft sensor models is challenged by issues such as missing labels, domain adaptability, and temporal coherence in data. To address these challenges, we propose a deep Particle Flow Bayes (DPFB) framework for cross-domain soft sensor modeling in the absence of target state labels. In particular, a sequential Bayes objective is first formulated to perform the maximum likelihood estimation underlying the cross-domain soft sensing problem. At the core of the framework, we incorporate a physics-inspired particle flow that optimizes the sequential Bayes objective to perform an exact Bayes update of the model extracted latent and hidden features. As a result, these contributions enable the proposed framework to learn a rich approximate posterior feature representation capable of characterizing complex cross-domain system dynamics and performing effective time series unsupervised domain adaptation (UDA). Finally, we validate the framework on a complex industrial multiphase flow process system with complex dynamics and multiple operating conditions. The results demonstrate that the DPFB framework achieves superior cross-domain soft sensing performance, outperforming state-of-the-art deep UDA and normalizing flow approaches.

In this study, we explore how Deep Q-Network (DQN) might improve the functionality of multiclass classification algorithms. We will use a benchmark dataset from Kaggle to create a framework incorporating DQN with existing supervised multiclass classification algorithms. The findings of this study will bring insight into how deep reinforcement learning strategies may be used to increase multiclass classification accuracy. They have been used in a number of fields, including image recognition, natural language processing, and bioinformatics. This study is focused on the prediction of financial distress in companies in addition to the wider application of Deep Q-Network in multiclass classification. Identifying businesses that are likely to experience financial distress is a crucial task in the fields of finance and risk management. Whenever a business experiences serious challenges keeping its operations going and meeting its financial responsibilities, it is said to be in financial distress. It commonly happens when a company has a sharp and sustained recession in profitability, cash flow issues, or an unsustainable level of debt.

Human-annotated data plays a critical role in the fairness of AI systems, including those that deal with life-altering decisions or moderating human-created web/social media content. Conventionally, annotator disagreements are resolved before any learning takes place. However, researchers are increasingly identifying annotator disagreement as pervasive and meaningful. They also question the performance of a system when annotators disagree. Particularly when minority views are disregarded, especially among groups that may already be underrepresented in the annotator population. In this paper, we introduce \emph{CrowdOpinion}\footnote{Accepted for publication at ACL 2023}, an unsupervised learning based approach that uses language features and label distributions to pool similar items into larger samples of label distributions. We experiment with four generative and one density-based clustering method, applied to five linear combinations of label distributions and features. We use five publicly available benchmark datasets (with varying levels of annotator disagreements) from social media (Twitter, Gab, and Reddit). We also experiment in the wild using a dataset from Facebook, where annotations come from the platform itself by users reacting to posts. We evaluate \emph{CrowdOpinion} as a label distribution prediction task using KL-divergence and a single-label problem using accuracy measures.

Contemporary scientific research is a distributed, collaborative endeavor, carried out by teams of researchers, regulatory institutions, funding agencies, commercial partners, and scientific bodies, all interacting with each other and facing different incentives. To maintain scientific rigor, statistical methods should acknowledge this state of affairs. To this end, we study hypothesis testing when there is an agent (e.g., a researcher or a pharmaceutical company) with a private prior about an unknown parameter and a principal (e.g., a policymaker or regulator) who wishes to make decisions based on the parameter value. The agent chooses whether to run a statistical trial based on their private prior and then the result of the trial is used by the principal to reach a decision. We show how the principal can conduct statistical inference that leverages the information that is revealed by an agent's strategic behavior -- their choice to run a trial or not. In particular, we show how the principal can design a policy to elucidate partial information about the agent's private prior beliefs and use this to control the posterior probability of the null. One implication is a simple guideline for the choice of significance threshold in clinical trials: the type-I error level should be set to be strictly less than the cost of the trial divided by the firm's profit if the trial is successful.

Bayesian optimization (BO) is a popular method to optimize costly black-box functions. While traditional BO optimizes each new target task from scratch, meta-learning has emerged as a way to leverage knowledge from related tasks to optimize new tasks faster. However, existing meta-learning BO methods rely on surrogate models that suffer from scalability issues and are sensitive to observations with different scales and noise types across tasks. Moreover, they often overlook the uncertainty associated with task similarity. This leads to unreliable task adaptation when only limited observations are obtained or when the new tasks differ significantly from the related tasks. To address these limitations, we propose a novel meta-learning BO approach that bypasses the surrogate model and directly learns the utility of queries across tasks. Our method explicitly models task uncertainty and includes an auxiliary model to enable robust adaptation to new tasks. Extensive experiments show that our method demonstrates strong anytime performance and outperforms state-of-the-art meta-learning BO methods in various benchmarks.