Both approaches enable sampling and density estimation of conditional probability distributions, which are core tasks in Bayesian inference. Our methods represent the target conditional distributions as transformations of a tractable reference distribution and, therefore, fall into the framework of measure transport. COT maps are a canonical choice within this framework, with desirable properties such as uniqueness and monotonicity. However, the associated COT problems are computationally challenging, even in moderate dimensions. To improve the scalability, our numerical algorithms leverage neural networks to parameterize COT maps. Our methods exploit the structure of the static and dynamic formulations of the COT problem. PCP-Map models conditional transport maps as the gradient of a partially input convex neural network (PICNN) and uses a novel numerical implementation to increase computational efficiency compared to state-of-the-art alternatives. COT-Flow models conditional transports via the flow of a regularized neural ODE; it is slower to train but offers faster sampling. We demonstrate their effectiveness and efficiency by comparing them with state-of-the-art approaches using benchmark datasets and Bayesian inverse problems.

We study empirical Bayes estimation in high-dimensional linear regression. To facilitate computationally efficient estimation of the underlying prior, we adopt a variational empirical Bayes approach, introduced originally in Carbonetto and Stephens (2012) and Kim et al. (2022). We establish asymptotic consistency of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE) and its (computable) naive mean field variational surrogate under mild assumptions on the design and the prior. Assuming, in addition, that the naive mean field approximation has a dominant optimizer, we develop a computationally efficient approximation to the oracle posterior distribution, and establish its accuracy under the 1-Wasserstein metric. This enables computationally feasible Bayesian inference; e.g., construction of posterior credible intervals with an average coverage guarantee, Bayes optimal estimation for the regression coefficients, estimation of the proportion of non-nulls, etc. Our analysis covers both deterministic and random designs, and accommodates correlations among the features. To the best of our knowledge, this provides the first rigorous nonparametric empirical Bayes method in a high-dimensional regression setting without sparsity.

A fundamental problem of causal discovery is cause-effect inference, learning the correct causal direction between two random variables. Significant progress has been made through modelling the effect as a function of its cause and a noise term, which allows us to leverage assumptions about the generating function class. The recently introduced heteroscedastic location-scale noise functional models (LSNMs) combine expressive power with identifiability guarantees. LSNM model selection based on maximizing likelihood achieves state-of-the-art accuracy, when the noise distributions are correctly specified. However, through an extensive empirical evaluation, we demonstrate that the accuracy deteriorates sharply when the form of the noise distribution is misspecified by the user. Our analysis shows that the failure occurs mainly when the conditional variance in the anti-causal direction is smaller than that in the causal direction. As an alternative, we find that causal model selection through residual independence testing is much more robust to noise misspecification and misleading conditional variance.

Despite their groundbreaking performance for many generative modeling tasks, diffusion models have fallen short on discrete data domains such as natural language. Crucially, standard diffusion models rely on the well-established theory of score matching, but efforts to generalize this to discrete structures have not yielded the same empirical gains. In this work, we bridge this gap by proposing score entropy, a novel discrete score matching loss that is more stable than existing methods, forms an ELBO for maximum likelihood training, and can be efficiently optimized with a denoising variant. We scale our Score Entropy Discrete Diffusion models (SEDD) to the experimental setting of GPT-2, achieving highly competitive likelihoods while also introducing distinct algorithmic advantages. In particular, when comparing similarly sized SEDD and GPT-2 models, SEDD attains comparable perplexities (normally within $+10\%$ of and sometimes outperforming the baseline). Furthermore, SEDD models learn a more faithful sequence distribution (around $4\times$ better compared to GPT-2 models with ancestral sampling as measured by large models), can trade off compute for generation quality (needing only $16\times$ fewer network evaluations to match GPT-2), and enables arbitrary infilling beyond the standard left to right prompting.

Adaptive importance sampling (AIS) algorithms are widely used to approximate expectations with respect to complicated target probability distributions. When the target has heavy tails, existing AIS algorithms can provide inconsistent estimators or exhibit slow convergence, as they often neglect the target's tail behaviour. To avoid this pitfall, we propose an AIS algorithm that approximates the target by Student-t proposal distributions. We adapt location and scale parameters by matching the escort moments - which are defined even for heavy-tailed distributions - of the target and the proposal. These updates minimize the $\alpha$-divergence between the target and the proposal, thereby connecting with variational inference. We then show that the $\alpha$-divergence can be approximated by a generalized notion of effective sample size and leverage this new perspective to adapt the tail parameter with Bayesian optimization. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through applications to synthetic targets and a Bayesian Student-t regression task on a real example with clinical trial data.

Normalizing Flows are generative models that directly maximize the likelihood. Previously, the design of normalizing flows was largely constrained by the need for analytical invertibility. We overcome this constraint by a training procedure that uses an efficient estimator for the gradient of the change of variables formula. This enables any dimension-preserving neural network to serve as a generative model through maximum likelihood training. Our approach allows placing the emphasis on tailoring inductive biases precisely to the task at hand. Specifically, we achieve excellent results in molecule generation benchmarks utilizing $E(n)$-equivariant networks. Moreover, our method is competitive in an inverse problem benchmark, while employing off-the-shelf ResNet architectures.

This paper studies the semi-supervised novelty detection problem where a set of "typical" measurements is available to the researcher. Motivated by recent advances in multiple testing and conformal inference, we propose AdaDetect, a flexible method that is able to wrap around any probabilistic classification algorithm and control the false discovery rate (FDR) on detected novelties in finite samples without any distributional assumption other than exchangeability. In contrast to classical FDR-controlling procedures that are often committed to a pre-specified p-value function, AdaDetect learns the transformation in a data-adaptive manner to focus the power on the directions that distinguish between inliers and outliers. Inspired by the multiple testing literature, we further propose variants of AdaDetect that are adaptive to the proportion of nulls while maintaining the finite-sample FDR control. The methods are illustrated on synthetic datasets and real-world datasets, including an application in astrophysics.

Sharing cooking recipes is a great way to exchange culinary ideas and provide instructions for food preparation. However, categorizing raw recipes found online into appropriate food genres can be challenging due to a lack of adequate labeled data. In this study, we present a dataset named the ``Assorted, Archetypal, and Annotated Two Million Extended (3A2M+) Cooking Recipe Dataset" that contains two million culinary recipes labeled in respective categories with extended named entities extracted from recipe descriptions. This collection of data includes various features such as title, NER, directions, and extended NER, as well as nine different labels representing genres including bakery, drinks, non-veg, vegetables, fast food, cereals, meals, sides, and fusions. The proposed pipeline named 3A2M+ extends the size of the Named Entity Recognition (NER) list to address missing named entities like heat, time or process from the recipe directions using two NER extraction tools. 3A2M+ dataset provides a comprehensive solution to the various challenging recipe-related tasks, including classification, named entity recognition, and recipe generation. Furthermore, we have demonstrated traditional machine learning, deep learning and pre-trained language models to classify the recipes into their corresponding genre and achieved an overall accuracy of 98.6\%. Our investigation indicates that the title feature played a more significant role in classifying the genre.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

The Laplacian-constrained Gaussian Markov Random Field (LGMRF) is a common multivariate statistical model for learning a weighted sparse dependency graph from given data. This graph learning problem can be formulated as a maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) of the precision matrix, subject to Laplacian structural constraints, with a sparsity-inducing penalty term. This paper aims to solve this learning problem accurately and efficiently. First, since the commonly used $\ell_1$-norm penalty is inappropriate in this setting and may lead to a complete graph, we employ the nonconvex minimax concave penalty (MCP), which promotes sparse solutions with lower estimation bias. Second, as opposed to existing first-order methods for this problem, we develop a second-order proximal Newton approach to obtain an efficient solver, utilizing several algorithmic features, such as using Conjugate Gradients, preconditioning, and splitting to active/free sets. Numerical experiments demonstrate the advantages of the proposed method in terms of both computational complexity and graph learning accuracy compared to existing methods.