The beta distribution serves as a canonical tool for modeling probabilities and is extensively used in statistics and machine learning, especially in the field of Bayesian nonparametrics. Despite its widespread use, there is limited work on flexible and computationally convenient stochastic process extensions for modeling dependent random probabilities. We propose a novel stochastic process called the logistic-beta process, whose logistic transformation yields a stochastic process with common beta marginals. Similar to the Gaussian process, the logistic-beta process can model dependence on both discrete and continuous domains, such as space or time, and has a highly flexible dependence structure through correlation kernels. Moreover, its normal variance-mean mixture representation leads to highly effective posterior inference algorithms. The flexibility and computational benefits of logistic-beta processes are demonstrated through nonparametric binary regression simulation studies. Furthermore, we apply the logistic-beta process in modeling dependent Dirichlet processes, and illustrate its application and benefits through Bayesian density regression problems in a toxicology study.

This paper presents the Relevance Feature and Vector Machine (RFVM), a novel model that addresses the challenges of the fat-data problem when dealing with clinical prospective studies. The fat-data problem refers to the limitations of Machine Learning (ML) algorithms when working with databases in which the number of features is much larger than the number of samples (a common scenario in certain medical fields). To overcome such limitations, the RFVM incorporates different characteristics: (1) A Bayesian formulation which enables the model to infer its parameters without overfitting thanks to the Bayesian model averaging. (2) A joint optimisation that overcomes the limitations arising from the fat-data characteristic by simultaneously including the variables that define the primal space (features) and those that define the dual space (observations). (3) An integrated prunning that removes the irrelevant features and samples during the training iterative optimization. Also, this last point turns out crucial when performing medical prospective studies, enabling researchers to exclude unnecessary medical tests, reducing costs and inconvenience for patients, and identifying the critical patients/subjects that characterize the disorder and, subsequently, optimize the patient recruitment process that leads to a balanced cohort. The model capabilities are tested against state-of-the-art models in several medical datasets with fat-data problems. These experimental works show that RFVM is capable of achieving competitive classification accuracies while providing the most compact subset of data (in both terms of features and samples). Moreover, the selected features (medical tests) seem to be aligned with the existing medical literature.

Humans can learn new concepts from a small number of examples by drawing on their inductive biases. These inductive biases have previously been captured by using Bayesian models defined over symbolic hypothesis spaces. Is it possible to create a neural network that displays the same inductive biases? We show that inductive biases that enable rapid concept learning can be instantiated in artificial neural networks by distilling a prior distribution from a symbolic Bayesian model via meta-learning, an approach for extracting the common structure from a set of tasks. By generating the set of tasks used in meta-learning from the prior distribution of a Bayesian model, we are able to transfer that prior into a neural network. We use this approach to create a neural network with an inductive bias towards concepts expressed as short logical formulas. Analyzing results from previous behavioral experiments in which people learned logical concepts from a few examples, we find that our meta-trained models are highly aligned with human performance.

The speech-to-song illusion is a robust psychological phenomenon whereby a spoken sentence sounds increasingly more musical as it is repeated. Despite decades of research, a complete formal account of this transformation is still lacking, and some of its nuanced characteristics, namely, that certain phrases appear to transform while others do not, is not well understood. Here we provide a formal account of this phenomenon, by recasting it as a statistical inference whereby a rational agent attempts to decide whether a sequence of utterances is more likely to have been produced in a song or speech. Using this approach and analyzing song and speech corpora, we further introduce a novel prose-to-lyrics illusion that is purely text-based. In this illusion, simply duplicating written sentences makes them appear more like song lyrics. We provide robust evidence for this new illusion in both human participants and large language models.

We present an algorithmic solution to the problem of incremental belief updating in the context of Monte Carlo inference in Bayesian statistical models represented by probabilistic programs. Given a model and a sample-approximated posterior, our solution constructs a set of weighted observations to condition the model such that inference would result in the same posterior. This problem arises e.g. in multi-level modelling, incremental inference, inference in presence of privacy constraints. First, a set of virtual observations is selected, then, observation weights are found through a computationally efficient optimization procedure such that the reconstructed posterior coincides with or closely approximates the original posterior. We implement and apply the solution to a number of didactic examples and case studies, showing efficiency and robustness of our approach. The provided reference implementation is agnostic to the probabilistic programming language or the inference algorithm, and can be applied to most mainstream probabilistic programming environments.

In recent years, machine learning has witnessed extensive adoption across various sectors, yet its application in medical image-based disease detection and diagnosis remains challenging due to distribution shifts in real-world data. In practical settings, deployed models encounter samples that differ significantly from the training dataset, especially in the health domain, leading to potential performance issues. This limitation hinders the expressiveness and reliability of deep learning models in health applications. Thus, it becomes crucial to identify methods capable of producing reliable uncertainty estimation in the context of distribution shifts in the health sector. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of using cutting-edge Bayesian and non-Bayesian methods to detect distributionally shifted samples, aiming to achieve reliable and trustworthy diagnostic predictions in segmentation task. Specifically, we compare three distinct uncertainty estimation methods, each designed to capture either unimodal or multimodal aspects in the posterior distribution. Our findings demonstrate that methods capable of addressing multimodal characteristics in the posterior distribution, offer more dependable uncertainty estimates. This research contributes to enhancing the utility of deep learning in healthcare, making diagnostic predictions more robust and trustworthy.

Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DDPMs) [Ho et al., 2020] are a very popular class of deep generative model that have been successfully applied to a diverse range of problems including image and video generation, protein and material synthesis, weather forecasting, and neural surrogates of partial differential equations. Despite their ubiquity it is hard to find an introduction to DDPMs which is simple, comprehensive, clean and clear. The compact explanations necessary in research papers are not able to elucidate all of the different design steps taken to formulate the DDPM and the rationale of the steps that are presented is often omitted to save space. Moreover, the expositions are typically presented from the variational lower bound perspective which is unnecessary and arguably harmful as it obfuscates why the method is working and suggests generalisations that do not perform well in practice. On the other hand, perspectives that take the continuous time-limit are beautiful and general, but they have a high barrier-to-entry as they require background knowledge of stochastic differential equations and probability flow. In this note, we distill down the formulation of the DDPM into six simple steps each of which comes with a clear rationale. We assume that the reader is familiar with fundamental topics in machine learning including basic probabilistic modelling, Gaussian distributions, maximum likelihood estimation, and deep learning.

Geosteering, a key component of drilling operations, traditionally involves manual interpretation of various data sources such as well-log data. This introduces subjective biases and inconsistent procedures. Academic attempts to solve geosteering decision optimization with greedy optimization and Approximate Dynamic Programming (ADP) showed promise but lacked adaptivity to realistic diverse scenarios. Reinforcement learning (RL) offers a solution to these challenges, facilitating optimal decision-making through reward-based iterative learning. State estimation methods, e.g., particle filter (PF), provide a complementary strategy for geosteering decision-making based on online information. We integrate an RL-based geosteering with PF to address realistic geosteering scenarios. Our framework deploys PF to process real-time well-log data to estimate the location of the well relative to the stratigraphic layers, which then informs the RL-based decision-making process. We compare our method's performance with that of using solely either RL or PF. Our findings indicate a synergy between RL and PF in yielding optimized geosteering decisions.

Adaptive behavior often requires predicting future events. The theory of reinforcement learning prescribes what kinds of predictive representations are useful and how to compute them. This paper integrates these theoretical ideas with work on cognition and neuroscience. We pay special attention to the successor representation (SR) and its generalizations, which have been widely applied both as engineering tools and models of brain function. This convergence suggests that particular kinds of predictive representations may function as versatile building blocks of intelligence.

This paper introduces the Quantified Boolean Bayesian Network (QBBN), which provides a unified view of logical and probabilistic reasoning. The QBBN is meant to address a central problem with the Large Language Model (LLM), which has become extremely popular in Information Retrieval, which is that the LLM hallucinates. A Bayesian Network, by construction, cannot hallucinate, because it can only return answers that it can explain. We show how a Bayesian Network over an unbounded number of boolean variables can be configured to represent the logical reasoning underlying human language. We do this by creating a key-value version of the First-Order Calculus, for which we can prove consistency and completeness. We show that the model is trivially trained over fully observed data, but that inference is non-trivial. Exact inference in a Bayesian Network is intractable (i.e. $\Omega(2^N)$ for $N$ variables). For inference, we investigate the use of Loopy Belief Propagation (LBP), which is not guaranteed to converge, but which has been shown to often converge in practice. Our experiments show that LBP indeed does converge very reliably, and our analysis shows that a round of LBP takes time $O(N2^n)$, where $N$ bounds the number of variables considered, and $n$ bounds the number of incoming connections to any factor, and further improvements may be possible. Our network is specifically designed to alternate between AND and OR gates in a Boolean Algebra, which connects more closely to logical reasoning, allowing a completeness proof for an expanded version of our network, and also allows inference to follow specific but adequate pathways, that turn out to be fast.