In recent years, the impact of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) in society has been absolutely remarkable. This impact is expected to continue in the foreseeable future. However,the adoption of AI/ML is also a cause of grave concern. The operation of the most advances AI/ML models is often beyond the grasp of human decision makers. As a result, decisions that impact humans may not be understood and may lack rigorous validation. Explainable AI (XAI) is concerned with providing human decision-makers with understandable explanations for the predictions made by ML models. As a result, XAI is a cornerstone of trustworthy AI. Despite its strategic importance, most work on XAI lacks rigor, and so its use in high-risk or safety-critical domains serves to foster distrust instead of contributing to build much-needed trust. Logic-based XAI has recently emerged as a rigorous alternative to those other non-rigorous methods of XAI. This paper provides a technical survey of logic-based XAI, its origins, the current topics of research, and emerging future topics of research. The paper also highlights the many myths that pervade non-rigorous approaches for XAI.

We address the challenge of quantifying Bayesian uncertainty and incorporating it in offline use cases of finite-state Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) with unknown dynamics. Our approach provides a principled method to disentangle epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, and a novel technique to find policies that optimise Bayesian posterior expected value without relying on strong assumptions about the MDP's posterior distribution. First, we utilise standard Bayesian reinforcement learning methods to capture the posterior uncertainty in MDP parameters based on available data. We then analytically compute the first two moments of the return distribution across posterior samples and apply the law of total variance to disentangle aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties. To find policies that maximise posterior expected value, we leverage the closed-form expression for value as a function of policy. This allows us to propose a stochastic gradient-based approach for solving the problem. We illustrate the uncertainty quantification and Bayesian posterior value optimisation performance of our agent in simple, interpretable gridworlds and validate it through ground-truth evaluations on synthetic MDPs. Finally, we highlight the real-world impact and computational scalability of our method by applying it to the AI Clinician problem, which recommends treatment for patients in intensive care units and has emerged as a key use case of finite-state MDPs with offline data. We discuss the challenges that arise with Bayesian modelling of larger scale MDPs while demonstrating the potential to apply our methods rooted in Bayesian decision theory into the real world. We make our code available at https://github.com/filippovaldettaro/finite-state-mdps .

The pursuit of high perceptual quality in image restoration has driven the development of revolutionary generative models, capable of producing results often visually indistinguishable from real data. However, as their perceptual quality continues to improve, these models also exhibit a growing tendency to generate hallucinations - realistic-looking details that do not exist in the ground truth images. The presence of hallucinations introduces uncertainty regarding the reliability of the models' predictions, raising major concerns about their practical application. In this paper, we employ information-theory tools to investigate this phenomenon, revealing a fundamental tradeoff between uncertainty and perception. We rigorously analyze the relationship between these two factors, proving that the global minimal uncertainty in generative models grows in tandem with perception. In particular, we define the inherent uncertainty of the restoration problem and show that attaining perfect perceptual quality entails at least twice this uncertainty. Additionally, we establish a relation between mean squared-error distortion, uncertainty and perception, through which we prove the aforementioned uncertainly-perception tradeoff induces the well-known perception-distortion tradeoff. This work uncovers fundamental limitations of generative models in achieving both high perceptual quality and reliable predictions for image restoration. We demonstrate our theoretical findings through an analysis of single image super-resolution algorithms. Our work aims to raise awareness among practitioners about this inherent tradeoff, empowering them to make informed decisions and potentially prioritize safety over perceptual performance.

Estimating the uncertainty of a model's prediction on a test point is a crucial part of ensuring reliability and calibration under distribution shifts. A minimum description length approach to this problem uses the predictive normalized maximum likelihood (pNML) distribution, which considers every possible label for a data point, and decreases confidence in a prediction if other labels are also consistent with the model and training data. In this work we propose IF-COMP, a scalable and efficient approximation of the pNML distribution that linearizes the model with a temperature-scaled Boltzmann influence function. IF-COMP can be used to produce well-calibrated predictions on test points as well as measure complexity in both labelled and unlabelled settings. We experimentally validate IF-COMP on uncertainty calibration, mislabel detection, and OOD detection tasks, where it consistently matches or beats strong baseline methods.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

A key challenge in e-learning environments like Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITSs) is to induce effective pedagogical policies efficiently. While Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) often suffers from sample inefficiency and reward function design difficulty, Apprenticeship Learning(AL) algorithms can overcome them. However, most AL algorithms can not handle heterogeneity as they assume all demonstrations are generated with a homogeneous policy driven by a single reward function. Still, some AL algorithms which consider heterogeneity, often can not generalize to large continuous state space and only work with discrete states. In this paper, we propose an expectation-maximization(EM)-EDM, a general AL framework to induce effective pedagogical policies from given optimal or near-optimal demonstrations, which are assumed to be driven by heterogeneous reward functions. We compare the effectiveness of the policies induced by our proposed EM-EDM against four AL-based baselines and two policies induced by DRL on two different but related tasks that involve pedagogical action prediction. Our overall results showed that, for both tasks, EM-EDM outperforms the four AL baselines across all performance metrics and the two DRL baselines. This suggests that EM-EDM can effectively model complex student pedagogical decision-making processes through the ability to manage a large, continuous state space and adapt to handle diverse and heterogeneous reward functions with very few given demonstrations.

In the modern era, mobile phones have become ubiquitous, and Short Message Service (SMS) has grown to become a multi-million-dollar service due to the widespread adoption of mobile devices and the millions of people who use SMS daily. However, SMS spam has also become a pervasive problem that endangers users' privacy and security through phishing and fraud. Despite numerous spam filtering techniques, there is still a need for a more effective solution to address this problem [1]. This research addresses the pervasive issue of SMS spam, which poses threats to users' privacy and security. Despite existing spam filtering techniques, the high false-positive rate persists as a challenge. The study introduces a novel approach utilizing Natural Language Processing (NLP) and machine learning models, particularly BERT (Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers), for SMS spam detection and classification. Data preprocessing techniques, such as stop word removal and tokenization, are applied, along with feature extraction using BERT. Machine learning models, including SVM, Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Gradient Boosting, and Random Forest, are integrated with BERT for differentiating spam from ham messages. Evaluation results revealed that the Na\"ive Bayes classifier + BERT model achieves the highest accuracy at 97.31% with the fastest execution time of 0.3 seconds on the test dataset. This approach demonstrates a notable enhancement in spam detection efficiency and a low false-positive rate. The developed model presents a valuable solution to combat SMS spam, ensuring faster and more accurate detection. This model not only safeguards users' privacy but also assists network providers in effectively identifying and blocking SMS spam messages.

We provide a theoretical and computational investigation of the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision, which was recently proposed as a robust criterion for pseudo-label selection (PLS) in semi-supervised learning. Opposed to traditional methods for PLS we use credal sets of priors ("generalized Bayes") to represent the epistemic modeling uncertainty. These latter are then updated by the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision. We eventually select pseudo-labeled data that are most likely in light of the least favorable distribution from the so updated credal set. We formalize the task of finding optimal pseudo-labeled data w.r.t. the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision as an optimization problem. A concrete implementation for the class of logistic models then allows us to compare the predictive power of the method with competing approaches. It is observed that the Gamma-Maximin method with soft revision can achieve very promising results, especially when the proportion of labeled data is low.

Expectation propagation (EP) is a family of algorithms for performing approximate inference in probabilistic models. The updates of EP involve the evaluation of moments -- expectations of certain functions -- which can be estimated from Monte Carlo (MC) samples. However, the updates are not robust to MC noise when performed naively, and various prior works have attempted to address this issue in different ways. In this work, we provide a novel perspective on the moment-matching updates of EP; namely, that they perform natural-gradient-based optimisation of a variational objective. We use this insight to motivate two new EP variants, with updates that are particularly well-suited to MC estimation; they remain stable and are most sample-efficient when estimated with just a single sample. These new variants combine the benefits of their predecessors and address key weaknesses. In particular, they are easier to tune, offer an improved speed-accuracy trade-off, and do not rely on the use of debiasing estimators. We demonstrate their efficacy on a variety of probabilistic inference tasks.

Generative modelling paradigms based on denoising diffusion processes have emerged as a leading candidate for conditional sampling in inverse problems. In many real-world applications, we often have access to large, expensively trained unconditional diffusion models, which we aim to exploit for improving conditional sampling. Most recent approaches are motivated heuristically and lack a unifying framework, obscuring connections between them. Further, they often suffer from issues such as being very sensitive to hyperparameters, being expensive to train or needing access to weights hidden behind a closed API. In this work, we unify conditional training and sampling using the mathematically well-understood Doob's h-transform. This new perspective allows us to unify many existing methods under a common umbrella. Under this framework, we propose DEFT (Doob's h-transform Efficient FineTuning), a new approach for conditional generation that simply fine-tunes a very small network to quickly learn the conditional $h$-transform, while keeping the larger unconditional network unchanged. DEFT is much faster than existing baselines while achieving state-of-the-art performance across a variety of linear and non-linear benchmarks. On image reconstruction tasks, we achieve speedups of up to 1.6$\times$, while having the best perceptual quality on natural images and reconstruction performance on medical images.