This paper presents Neural Visibility Field (NVF), a novel uncertainty quantification method for Neural Radiance Fields (NeRF) applied to active mapping. Our key insight is that regions not visible in the training views lead to inherently unreliable color predictions by NeRF at this region, resulting in increased uncertainty in the synthesized views. To address this, we propose to use Bayesian Networks to composite position-based field uncertainty into ray-based uncertainty in camera observations. Consequently, NVF naturally assigns higher uncertainty to unobserved regions, aiding robots to select the most informative next viewpoints. Extensive evaluations show that NVF excels not only in uncertainty quantification but also in scene reconstruction for active mapping, outperforming existing methods.

Differentiable causal discovery has made significant advancements in the learning of directed acyclic graphs. However, its application to real-world datasets remains restricted due to the ubiquity of latent confounders and the requirement to learn maximal ancestral graphs (MAGs). To date, existing differentiable MAG learning algorithms have been limited to small datasets and failed to scale to larger ones (e.g., with more than 50 variables). The key insight in this paper is that the causal skeleton, which is the undirected version of the causal graph, has potential for improving accuracy and reducing the search space of the optimization procedure, thereby enhancing the performance of differentiable causal discovery. Therefore, we seek to address a two-fold challenge to harness the potential of the causal skeleton for differentiable causal discovery in the presence of latent confounders: (1) scalable and accurate estimation of skeleton and (2) universal integration of skeleton estimation with differentiable causal discovery. To this end, we propose SPOT (Skeleton Posterior-guided OpTimization), a two-phase framework that harnesses skeleton posterior for differentiable causal discovery in the presence of latent confounders. On the contrary to a ``point-estimation'', SPOT seeks to estimate the posterior distribution of skeletons given the dataset. It first formulates the posterior inference as an instance of amortized inference problem and concretizes it with a supervised causal learning (SCL)-enabled solution to estimate the skeleton posterior. To incorporate the skeleton posterior with differentiable causal discovery, SPOT then features a skeleton posterior-guided stochastic optimization procedure to guide the optimization of MAGs. [abridged due to length limit]

Hyperbolic models can reproduce the heavy-tailed degree distribution, high clustering, and hierarchical structure of empirical networks. Current algorithms for finding the hyperbolic coordinates of networks, however, do not quantify uncertainty in the inferred coordinates. We present BIGUE, a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm that samples the posterior distribution of a Bayesian hyperbolic random graph model. We show that combining random walk and random cluster transformations significantly improves mixing compared to the commonly used and state-of-the-art dynamic Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. Using this algorithm, we also provide evidence that the posterior distribution cannot be approximated by a multivariate normal distribution, thereby justifying the use of MCMC to quantify the uncertainty of the inferred parameters.

Over the last ten years, the realm of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has experienced an explosion of revolutionary breakthroughs, transforming what seemed like a far-off dream into a reality that is now deeply embedded in our everyday lives. AI's widespread impact is revolutionizing virtually all aspects of human life, and software engineering (SE) is no exception. As we explore this changing landscape, we are faced with questions about what the future holds for SE and how AI will reshape the roles, duties, and methodologies within the field. The introduction of these groundbreaking technologies highlights the inevitable shift towards a new paradigm, suggesting a future where AI's capabilities may redefine the boundaries of SE, potentially even more than human input. In this paper, we aim at outlining the key elements that, based on our expertise, are vital for the smooth integration of AI into SE, all while preserving the intrinsic human creativity that has been the driving force behind the field. First, we provide a brief description of SE and AI evolution. Afterward, we delve into the intricate interplay between AI-driven automation and human innovation, exploring how these two components can work together to advance SE practices to new methods and standards.

This paper presents a novel approach to causal discovery through a divide-and-conquer framework. By decomposing the problem into smaller subproblems defined on Markov blankets, the proposed DCDILP method first explores in parallel the local causal graphs of these subproblems. However, this local discovery phase encounters systematic challenges due to the presence of hidden confounders (variables within each Markov blanket may be influenced by external variables). Moreover, aggregating these local causal graphs in a consistent global graph defines a large size combinatorial optimization problem. DCDILP addresses these challenges by: i) restricting the local subgraphs to causal links only related with the central variable of the Markov blanket; ii) formulating the reconciliation of local causal graphs as an integer linear programming method. The merits of the approach, in both terms of causal discovery accuracy and scalability in the size of the problem, are showcased by experiments and comparisons with the state of the art.

The data augmentation (DA) algorithms are popular Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms often used for sampling from intractable probability distributions. This review article comprehensively surveys DA MCMC algorithms, highlighting their theoretical foundations, methodological implementations, and diverse applications in frequentist and Bayesian statistics. The article discusses tools for studying the convergence properties of DA algorithms. Furthermore, it contains various strategies for accelerating the speed of convergence of the DA algorithms, different extensions of DA algorithms and outlines promising directions for future research. This paper aims to serve as a resource for researchers and practitioners seeking to leverage data augmentation techniques in MCMC algorithms by providing key insights and synthesizing recent developments.

Leveraging human preferences for steering the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) has demonstrated notable success in recent years. Nonetheless, data selection and labeling are still a bottleneck for these systems, particularly at large scale. Hence, selecting the most informative points for acquiring human feedback may considerably reduce the cost of preference labeling and unleash the further development of LLMs. Bayesian Active Learning provides a principled framework for addressing this challenge and has demonstrated remarkable success in diverse settings. However, previous attempts to employ it for Preference Modeling did not meet such expectations. In this work, we identify that naive epistemic uncertainty estimation leads to the acquisition of redundant samples. We address this by proposing the Bayesian Active Learner for Preference Modeling (BAL-PM), a novel stochastic acquisition policy that not only targets points of high epistemic uncertainty according to the preference model but also seeks to maximize the entropy of the acquired prompt distribution in the feature space spanned by the employed LLM. Notably, our experiments demonstrate that BAL-PM requires 33% to 68% fewer preference labels in two popular human preference datasets and exceeds previous stochastic Bayesian acquisition policies.

To develop rigorous knowledge about ML models -- and the systems in which they are embedded -- we need reliable measurements. But reliable measurement is fundamentally challenging, and touches on issues of reproducibility, scalability, uncertainty quantification, epistemology, and more. This dissertation addresses criteria needed to take reliability seriously: both criteria for designing meaningful metrics, and for methodologies that ensure that we can dependably and efficiently measure these metrics at scale and in practice. In doing so, this dissertation articulates a research vision for a new field of scholarship at the intersection of machine learning, law, and policy. Within this frame, we cover topics that fit under three different themes: (1) quantifying and mitigating sources of arbitrariness in ML, (2) taming randomness in uncertainty estimation and optimization algorithms, in order to achieve scalability without sacrificing reliability, and (3) providing methods for evaluating generative-AI systems, with specific focuses on quantifying memorization in language models and training latent diffusion models on open-licensed data. By making contributions in these three themes, this dissertation serves as an empirical proof by example that research on reliable measurement for machine learning is intimately and inescapably bound up with research in law and policy. These different disciplines pose similar research questions about reliable measurement in machine learning. They are, in fact, two complementary sides of the same research vision, which, broadly construed, aims to construct machine-learning systems that cohere with broader societal values.

Product assortment selection is a critical challenge facing physical retailers. Effectively aligning inventory with the preferences of shoppers can increase sales and decrease out-of-stocks. However, in real-world settings the problem is challenging due to the combinatorial explosion of product assortment possibilities. Consumer preferences are typically heterogeneous across space and time, making inventory-preference alignment challenging. Additionally, existing strategies rely on syndicated data, which tends to be aggregated, low resolution, and suffer from high latency. To solve these challenges, we introduce a real-time recommendation system, which we call EdgeRec3D. Our system utilizes recent advances in 3D computer vision for perception and automatic, fine grained sales estimation. These perceptual components run on the edge of the network and facilitate real-time reward signals. Additionally, we develop a Bayesian payoff model to account for noisy estimates from 3D LIDAR data. We rely on spatial clustering to allow the system to adapt to heterogeneous consumer preferences, and a graph-based candidate generation algorithm to address the combinatorial search problem. We test our system in real-world stores across two, 6-8 week A/B tests with beverage products and demonstrate a 35% and 27% increase in sales respectively. Finally, we monitor the deployed system for a period of 28 weeks with an observational study and show a 9.4% increase in sales.

Sepsis is a life-threatening and serious global health issue. This study combines knowledge with available hospital data to investigate the potential causes of Sepsis that can be affected by policy decisions. We investigate the underlying causal structure of this problem by combining clinical expertise with score-based, constraint-based, and hybrid structure learning algorithms. A novel approach to model averaging and knowledge-based constraints was implemented to arrive at a consensus structure for causal inference. The structure learning process highlighted the importance of exploring data-driven approaches alongside clinical expertise. This includes discovering unexpected, although reasonable, relationships from a clinical perspective. Hypothetical interventions on Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease, Alcohol dependence, and Diabetes suggest that the presence of any of these risk factors in patients increases the likelihood of Sepsis. This finding, alongside measuring the effect of these risk factors on Sepsis, has potential policy implications. Recognising the importance of prediction in improving Sepsis related health outcomes, the model built is also assessed in its ability to predict Sepsis. The predictions generated by the consensus model were assessed for their accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. These three indicators all had results around 70%, and the AUC was 80%, which means the causal structure of the model is reasonably accurate given that the models were trained on data available for commissioning purposes only.