Labeling visual data is expensive and time-consuming. Crowdsourcing systems promise to enable highly parallelizable annotations through the participation of monetarily or otherwise motivated workers, but even this approach has its limits. The solution: replace manual work with machine work. But how reliable are machine annotators? Sacrificing data quality for high throughput cannot be acceptable, especially in safety-critical applications such as autonomous driving. In this paper, we present a framework that enables quality checking of visual data at large scales without sacrificing the reliability of the results. We ask annotators simple questions with discrete answers, which can be highly automated using a convolutional neural network trained to predict crowd responses. Unlike the methods of previous work, which aim to directly predict soft labels to address human uncertainty, we use per-task posterior distributions over soft labels as our training objective, leveraging a Dirichlet prior for analytical accessibility. We demonstrate our approach on two challenging real-world automotive datasets, showing that our model can fully automate a significant portion of tasks, saving costs in the high double-digit percentage range. Our model reliably predicts human uncertainty, allowing for more accurate inspection and filtering of difficult examples. Additionally, we show that the posterior distributions over soft labels predicted by our model can be used as priors in further inference processes, reducing the need for numerous human labelers to approximate true soft labels accurately. This results in further cost reductions and more efficient use of human resources in the annotation process.

In many real-world continuous action domains, human agents must decide which actions to attempt and then execute those actions to the best of their ability. However, humans cannot execute actions without error. Human performance in these domains can potentially be improved by the use of AI to aid in decision-making. One requirement for an AI to correctly reason about what actions a human agent should attempt is a correct model of that human's execution error, or skill. Recent work has demonstrated successful techniques for estimating this execution error with various types of agents across different domains. However, this previous work made several assumptions that limit the application of these ideas to real-world settings. First, previous work assumed that the error distributions were symmetric normal, which meant that only a single parameter had to be estimated. In reality, agent error distributions might exhibit arbitrary shapes and should be modeled more flexibly. Second, it was assumed that the execution error of the agent remained constant across all observations. Especially for human agents, execution error changes over time, and this must be taken into account to obtain effective estimates. To overcome both of these shortcomings, we propose a novel particle-filter-based estimator for this problem. After describing the details of this approximate estimator, we experimentally explore various design decisions and compare performance with previous skill estimators in a variety of settings to showcase the improvements. The outcome is an estimator capable of generating more realistic, time-varying execution skill estimates of agents, which can then be used to assist agents in making better decisions and improve their overall performance.

In recent years, computational improvements have allowed for more nuanced, data-driven and geographically explicit agent-based simulations. So far, simulations have struggled to adequately represent the attributes that motivate the actions of the agents. In fact, existing population synthesis frameworks generate agent profiles limited to socio-demographic attributes. In this paper, we introduce a novel value-enriched population synthesis framework that integrates a motivational layer with the traditional individual and household socio-demographic layers. Our research highlights the significance of extending the profile of agents in synthetic populations by incorporating data on values, ideologies, opinions and vital priorities, which motivate the agents' behaviour. This motivational layer can help us develop a more nuanced decision-making mechanism for the agents in social simulation settings. Our methodology integrates microdata and macrodata within different Bayesian network structures. This contribution allows to generate synthetic populations with integrated value systems that preserve the inherent socio-demographic distributions of the real population in any specific region.

Neural processes are a family of models which use neural networks to directly parametrise a map from data sets to predictions. Directly parametrising this map enables the use of expressive neural networks in small-data problems where neural networks would traditionally overfit. Neural processes can produce well-calibrated uncertainties, effectively deal with missing data, and are simple to train. These properties make this family of models appealing for a breadth of applications areas, such as healthcare or environmental sciences. This thesis advances neural processes in three ways. First, we propose convolutional neural processes (ConvNPs). ConvNPs improve data efficiency of neural processes by building in a symmetry called translation equivariance. ConvNPs rely on convolutional neural networks rather than multi-layer perceptrons. Second, we propose Gaussian neural processes (GNPs). GNPs directly parametrise dependencies in the predictions of a neural process. Current approaches to modelling dependencies in the predictions depend on a latent variable, which consequently requires approximate inference, undermining the simplicity of the approach. Third, we propose autoregressive conditional neural processes (AR CNPs). AR CNPs train a neural process without any modifications to the model or training procedure and, at test time, roll out the model in an autoregressive fashion. AR CNPs equip the neural process framework with a new knob where modelling complexity and computational expense at training time can be traded for computational expense at test time. In addition to methodological advancements, this thesis also proposes a software abstraction that enables a compositional approach to implementing neural processes. This approach allows the user to rapidly explore the space of neural process models by putting together elementary building blocks in different ways.

Conventional Bayesian optimal experimental design seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) on model parameters. However, the end goal of the experiment often is not to learn the model parameters, but to predict downstream quantities of interest (QoIs) that depend on the learned parameters. And designs that offer high EIG for parameters may not translate to high EIG for QoIs. Goal-oriented optimal experimental design (GO-OED) thus directly targets to maximize the EIG of QoIs. We introduce LF-GO-OED (likelihood-free goal-oriented optimal experimental design), a computational method for conducting GO-OED with nonlinear observation and prediction models. LF-GO-OED is specifically designed to accommodate implicit models, where the likelihood is intractable. In particular, it builds a density ratio estimator from samples generated from approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), thereby sidestepping the need for likelihood evaluations or density estimations. The overall method is validated on benchmark problems with existing methods, and demonstrated on scientific applications of epidemiology and neural science.

This study focuses on EEG-based BMI for detecting voluntary keystrokes, aiming to develop a reliable brain-computer interface (BCI) to simulate and anticipate keystrokes, especially for individuals with motor impairments. The methodology includes extensive segmentation, event alignment, ERP plot analysis, and signal analysis. Different deep learning models are trained to classify EEG data into three categories -- `resting state' (0), `d' key press (1), and `l' key press (2). Real-time keypress simulation based on neural activity is enabled through integration with a tkinter-based graphical user interface. Feature engineering utilized ERP windows, and the SVC model achieved 90.42% accuracy in event classification. Additionally, deep learning models -- MLP (89% accuracy), Catboost (87.39% accuracy), KNN (72.59%), Gaussian Naive Bayes (79.21%), Logistic Regression (90.81% accuracy), and a novel Bi-Directional LSTM-GRU hybrid model (89% accuracy) -- were developed for BCI keyboard simulation. Finally, a GUI was created to predict and simulate keystrokes using the trained MLP model.

Bayesian Physics Informed Neural Networks (BPINN) have received considerable attention for inferring differential equations' system states and physical parameters according to noisy observations. However, in practice, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) used to estimate the internal parameters of BPINN often encounters troubles, including poor performance and awful convergence for a given step size used to adjust the momentum of those parameters. To improve the efficacy of HMC convergence for the BPINN method and extend its application scope to multi-scale partial differential equations (PDE), we developed a robust multi-scale Bayesian PINN (dubbed MBPINN) method by integrating multi-scale deep neural networks (MscaleDNN) and Bayesian inference. In this newly proposed MBPINN method, we reframe HMC with Stochastic Gradient Descent (SGD) to ensure the most ``likely'' estimation is always provided, and we configure its solver as a Fourier feature mapping-induced MscaleDNN. The MBPINN method offers several key advantages: (1) it is more robust than HMC, (2) it incurs less computational cost than HMC, and (3) it is more flexible for complex problems. We demonstrate the applicability and performance of the proposed method through general Poisson and multi-scale elliptic problems in one- to three-dimensional spaces. Our findings indicate that the proposed method can avoid HMC failures and provide valid results. Additionally, our method can handle complex PDE and produce comparable results for general PDE. These findings suggest that our proposed approach has excellent potential for physics-informed machine learning for parameter estimation and solution recovery in the case of ill-posed problems.

This study investigates the causal relationships between Clinical Dementia Ratings (CDR) and its six domain scores across two distinct aging datasets: the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and the Longitudinal Aging Study of India (LASI). Using Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAGs) derived from Bayesian network models, we analyze the dependencies among domain scores and their influence on the global CDR. Our approach leverages the PC algorithm to estimate the DAG structures for both datasets, revealing notable differences in causal relationships and edge strengths between the Western and Indian populations. The analysis highlights a stronger dependency of CDR scores on memory functions in both datasets, but with significant variations in edge strengths and node degrees. By contrasting these findings, we aim to elucidate population-specific differences and similarities in dementia progression, providing insights that could inform targeted interventions and improve understanding of dementia across diverse demographic contexts.

Its crux lies in the optimization of a tradeoff between accuracy and fairness of resultant models on the selected feature subset. The technical challenge of our setting is twofold: 1) streaming feature inputs, such that an informative feature may become obsolete or redundant for prediction if its information has been covered by other similar features that arrived prior to it, and 2) non-associational feature correlation, such that bias may be leaked from those seemingly admissible, non-protected features. To overcome this, we propose Streaming Feature Selection with Causal Fairness (SFCF) that builds two causal graphs egocentric to prediction label and protected feature, respectively, striving to model the complex correlation structure among streaming features, labels, and protected information. As such, bias can be eradicated from predictive modeling by removing those features being causally correlated with the protected feature yet independent to the labels. We theorize that the originally redundant features for prediction can later become admissible, when the learning accuracy is compromised by the large number of removed features (non-protected but can be used to reconstruct bias information). We benchmark SFCF\ on five datasets widely used in streaming feature research, and the results substantiate its performance superiority over six rival models in terms of efficiency and sparsity of feature selection and equalized odds of the resultant predictive models.

PAC-Bayesian bounds have proven to be a valuable tool for deriving generalization bounds and for designing new learning algorithms in machine learning. However, it typically focus on providing generalization bounds with respect to a chosen loss function. In classification tasks, due to the non-convex nature of the 0-1 loss, a convex surrogate loss is often used, and thus current PAC-Bayesian bounds are primarily specified for this convex surrogate. This work shifts its focus to providing misclassification excess risk bounds for PAC-Bayesian classification when using a convex surrogate loss. Our key ingredient here is to leverage PAC-Bayesian relative bounds in expectation rather than relying on PAC-Bayesian bounds in probability. We demonstrate our approach in several important applications.