Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs.In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster.

Training regimes based on Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) suffer from known limitations, often leading to poorly generated text sequences that lack of coherence, factualness, and are prone to repetitions. At the root of these limitations is the mismatch between training and inference, i.e. the so-called exposure bias. Another problem lies in considering only the reference text as correct, while in practice several alternative formulations could be as good. Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) could mitigate those limitations. Nonetheless, the discrete nature of text has hindered their application to language generation: the approaches proposed so far, based on Reinforcement Learning, have been shown to under-perform MLE.

Vision transformer networks have shown superiority in many computer vision tasks. In this paper, we take a step further by proposing a novel generative vision transformer with latent variables following an informative energy-based prior for salient object detection. Both the vision transformer network and the energy-based prior model are jointly trained via Markov chain Monte Carlo-based maximum likelihood estimation, in which the sampling from the intractable posterior and prior distributions of the latent variables are performed by Langevin dynamics. Further, with the generative vision transformer, we can easily obtain a pixel-wise uncertainty map from an image, which indicates the model confidence in predicting saliency from the image. Different from the existing generative models which define the prior distribution of the latent variables as a simple isotropic Gaussian distribution, our model uses an energy-based informative prior which can be more expressive to capture the latent space of the data.

When a model's predicted number of events within any time interval is similar to the observed number, it is called well-calibrated. A survival model's calibration can be measured using, for instance, distributional calibration (D-CALIBRATION) [Haider et al., 2020] which computes the squared difference between the observed and predicted number of events within different time intervals. Classically, calibration is addressed in post-training analysis. We develop explicit calibration (X-CAL), which turns D-CALIBRATION into a differentiable objective that can be used in survival modeling alongside maximum likelihood estimation and other objectives. X-CAL allows us to directly optimize calibration and strike a desired trade-off between predictive power and calibration.

Deep learning has achieved many breakthroughs in modern classification tasks. Numerous architectures have been proposed for different data structures but when it comes to the loss function, the cross-entropy loss is the predominant choice. Recently, several alternative losses have seen revived interests for deep classifiers. In particular, empirical evidence seems to promote square loss but a theoretical justification is still lacking. In this work, we contribute to the theoretical understanding of square loss in classification by systematically investigating how it performs for overparametrized neural networks in the neural tangent kernel (NTK) regime.

In this paper, we present a new practical method for Bayesian learning that can rapidly draw representative samples from complex posterior distributions with multiple isolated modes in the presence of mini-batch noise. This is achieved by simulating a collection of replicas in parallel with different temperatures and periodically swapping them. When evolving the replicas' states, the Nos\'e-Hoover dynamics is applied, which adaptively neutralizes the mini-batch noise. To perform proper exchanges, a new protocol is developed with a noise-aware test of acceptance, by which the detailed balance is reserved in an asymptotic way. While its efficacy on complex multimodal posteriors has been illustrated by testing over synthetic distributions, experiments with deep Bayesian neural networks on large-scale datasets have shown its significant improvements over strong baselines.

Inference is typically intractable in high-treewidth undirected graphical models, making maximum likelihood learning a challenge. One way to overcome this is to restrict parameters to a tractable set, most typically the set of tree-structured parameters. This paper explores an alternative notion of a tractable set, namely a set of "fast-mixing parameters" where Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inference can be guaranteed to quickly converge to the stationary distribution. While it is common in practice to approximate the likelihood gradient using samples obtained from MCMC, such procedures lack theoretical guarantees. This paper proves that for any exponential family with bounded sufficient statistics, (not just graphical models) when parameters are constrained to a fast-mixing set, gradient descent with gradients approximated by sampling will approximate the maximum likelihood solution inside the set with high-probability.

Combining discrete probability distributions and combinatorial optimization problems with neural network components has numerous applications but poses several challenges. We propose Implicit Maximum Likelihood Estimation (I-MLE), a framework for end-to-end learning of models combining discrete exponential family distributions and differentiable neural components. I-MLE is widely applicable as it only requires the ability to compute the most probable states and does not rely on smooth relaxations. The framework encompasses several approaches such as perturbation-based implicit differentiation and recent methods to differentiate through black-box combinatorial solvers. We introduce a novel class of noise distributions for approximating marginals via perturb-and-MAP.

We study the following independence testing problem: given access to samples from a distribution P over \{0,1\} n, decide whether P is a product distribution or whether it is \varepsilon -far in total variation distance from any product distribution. For arbitrary distributions, this problem requires \exp(n) samples. We show in this work that if P has a sparse structure, then in fact only linearly many samples are required.Specifically, if P is Markov with respect to a Bayesian network whose underlying DAG has in-degree bounded by d, then \tilde{\Theta}(2 {d/2}\cdot n/\varepsilon 2) samples are necessary and sufficient for independence testing.

We study three fundamental statistical-learning problems: distribution estimation, property estimation, and property testing. We establish the profile maximum likelihood (PML) estimator as the first unified sample-optimal approach to a wide range of learning tasks. In particular, for every alphabet size k and desired accuracy \varepsilon: \textbf{Distribution estimation} Under \ell_1 distance, PML yields optimal \Theta(k/(\varepsilon 2\log k)) sample complexity for sorted-distribution estimation, and a PML-based estimator empirically outperforms the Good-Turing estimator on the actual distribution; \textbf{Additive property estimation} For a broad class of additive properties, the PML plug-in estimator uses just four times the sample size required by the best estimator to achieve roughly twice its error, with exponentially higher confidence; \textbf{ \alpha -R\'enyi entropy estimation} For an integer \alpha 1, the PML plug-in estimator has optimal k {1-1/\alpha} sample complexity; for non-integer \alpha 3/4, the PML plug-in estimator has sample complexity lower than the state of the art; \textbf{Identity testing} In testing whether an unknown distribution is equal to or at least \varepsilon far from a given distribution in \ell_1 distance, a PML-based tester achieves the optimal sample complexity up to logarithmic factors of k . With minor modifications, most of these results also hold for a near-linear-time computable variant of PML.