The analysis of neural power spectra plays a crucial role in understanding brain function and dysfunction. While recent efforts have led to the development of methods for decomposing spectral data, challenges remain in performing statistical analysis and group-level comparisons. Here, we introduce Bayesian Spectral Decomposition (BSD), a Bayesian framework for analysing neural spectral power. BSD allows for the specification, inversion, comparison, and analysis of parametric models of neural spectra, addressing limitations of existing methods. We first establish the face validity of BSD on simulated data and show how it outperforms an established method (\fooof{}) for peak detection on artificial spectral data. We then demonstrate the efficacy of BSD on a group-level study of EEG spectra in 204 healthy subjects from the LEMON dataset. Our results not only highlight the effectiveness of BSD in model selection and parameter estimation, but also illustrate how BSD enables straightforward group-level regression of the effect of continuous covariates such as age. By using Bayesian inference techniques, BSD provides a robust framework for studying neural spectral data and their relationship to brain function and dysfunction.

Foundation Language Models (FLMs) such as BERT and its variants have achieved remarkable success in natural language processing. To date, the interpretability of FLMs has primarily relied on the attention weights in their self-attention layers. However, these attention weights only provide word-level interpretations, failing to capture higher-level structures, and are therefore lacking in readability and intuitiveness. To address this challenge, we first provide a formal definition of conceptual interpretation and then propose a variational Bayesian framework, dubbed VAriational Language Concept (VALC), to go beyond word-level interpretations and provide concept-level interpretations. Our theoretical analysis shows that our VALC finds the optimal language concepts to interpret FLM predictions. Empirical results on several real-world datasets show that our method can successfully provide conceptual interpretation for FLMs.

We propose an importance sampling method for tractable and efficient estimation of counterfactual expressions in general settings, named Exogenous Matching. By minimizing a common upper bound of counterfactual estimators, we transform the variance minimization problem into a conditional distribution learning problem, enabling its integration with existing conditional distribution modeling approaches. We validate the theoretical results through experiments under various types and settings of Structural Causal Models (SCMs) and demonstrate the outperformance on counterfactual estimation tasks compared to other existing importance sampling methods. We also explore the impact of injecting structural prior knowledge (counterfactual Markov boundaries) on the results. Finally, we apply this method to identifiable proxy SCMs and demonstrate the unbiasedness of the estimates, empirically illustrating the applicability of the method to practical scenarios.

In the highly competitive environment of the banking industry, it is essential to precisely forecast the behavior of customers in order to maximize the effectiveness of marketing initiatives and improve financial consequences. The purpose of this research is to examine the efficacy of logit and probit models in predicting term deposit subscriptions using a Portuguese bank's direct marketing data. There are several demographic, economic, and behavioral characteristics in the dataset that affect the probability of subscribing. To increase model performance and provide an unbiased evaluation, the target variable was balanced, considering the inherent imbalance in the dataset. The two model's prediction abilities were evaluated using Bayesian techniques and Leave-One-Out Cross-Validation (LOO-CV). The logit model performed better than the probit model in handling this classification problem. The results highlight the relevance of model selection when dealing with complicated decision-making processes in the financial services industry and imbalanced datasets. Findings from this study shed light on how banks can optimize their decision-making processes, improve their client segmentation, and boost their marketing campaigns by utilizing machine learning models.

In this paper, we present a complete framework for quickly calibrating and administering a robust large-scale computerized adaptive test (CAT) with a small number of responses. Calibration - learning item parameters in a test - is done using AutoIRT, a new method that uses automated machine learning (AutoML) in combination with item response theory (IRT), originally proposed in [Sharpnack et al., 2024]. AutoIRT trains a non-parametric AutoML grading model using item features, followed by an item-specific parametric model, which results in an explanatory IRT model. In our work, we use tabular AutoML tools (AutoGluon.tabular, [Erickson et al., 2020]) along with BERT embeddings and linguistically motivated NLP features. In this framework, we use Bayesian updating to obtain test taker ability posterior distributions for administration and scoring. For administration of our adaptive test, we propose the BanditCAT framework, a methodology motivated by casting the problem in the contextual bandit framework and utilizing item response theory (IRT). The key insight lies in defining the bandit reward as the Fisher information for the selected item, given the latent test taker ability from IRT assumptions. We use Thompson sampling to balance between exploring items with different psychometric characteristics and selecting highly discriminative items that give more precise information about ability. To control item exposure, we inject noise through an additional randomization step before computing the Fisher information. This framework was used to initially launch two new item types on the DET practice test using limited training data. We outline some reliability and exposure metrics for the 5 practice test experiments that utilized this framework.

A multiagent sequential decision problem has been seen in many critical applications including urban transportation, autonomous driving cars, military operations, etc. Its widely known solution, namely multiagent reinforcement learning, has evolved tremendously in recent years. Among them, the solution paradigm of modeling other agents attracts our interest, which is different from traditional value decomposition or communication mechanisms. It enables agents to understand and anticipate others' behaviors and facilitates their collaboration. Inspired by recent research on the legibility that allows agents to reveal their intentions through their behavior, we propose a multiagent active legibility framework to improve their performance. The legibility-oriented framework allows agents to conduct legible actions so as to help others optimise their behaviors. In addition, we design a series of problem domains that emulate a common scenario and best characterize the legibility in multiagent reinforcement learning. The experimental results demonstrate that the new framework is more efficient and costs less training time compared to several multiagent reinforcement learning algorithms.

The sports betting industry has experienced rapid growth, driven largely by technological advancements and the proliferation of online platforms. Machine learning (ML) has played a pivotal role in the transformation of this sector by enabling more accurate predictions, dynamic odds-setting, and enhanced risk management for both bookmakers and bettors. This systematic review explores various ML techniques, including support vector machines, random forests, and neural networks, as applied in different sports such as soccer, basketball, tennis, and cricket. These models utilize historical data, in-game statistics, and real-time information to optimize betting strategies and identify value bets, ultimately improving profitability. For bookmakers, ML facilitates dynamic odds adjustment and effective risk management, while bettors leverage data-driven insights to exploit market inefficiencies. This review also underscores the role of ML in fraud detection, where anomaly detection models are used to identify suspicious betting patterns. Despite these advancements, challenges such as data quality, real-time decision-making, and the inherent unpredictability of sports outcomes remain. Ethical concerns related to transparency and fairness are also of significant importance. Future research should focus on developing adaptive models that integrate multimodal data and manage risk in a manner akin to financial portfolios. This review provides a comprehensive examination of the current applications of ML in sports betting, and highlights both the potential and the limitations of these technologies.

There is growing research interest in measuring the statistical heterogeneity of clients' local datasets. Such measurements are used to estimate the suitability for collaborative training of personalized federated learning (PFL) models. Currently, these research endeavors are taking place in silos and there is a lack of a unified benchmark to provide a fair and convenient comparison among various approaches in common settings. We aim to bridge this important gap in this paper. The proposed benchmarking framework currently includes six representative approaches. Extensive experiments have been conducted to compare these approaches under five standard non-IID FL settings, providing much needed insights into which approaches are advantageous under which settings. The proposed framework offers useful guidance on the suitability of various data divergence measures in FL systems. It is beneficial for keeping related research activities on the right track in terms of: (i) designing PFL schemes, (ii) selecting appropriate data heterogeneity evaluation approaches for specific FL application scenarios, and (iii) addressing fairness issues in collaborative model training.

In the current era of social media and generative AI, an ability to automatically assess the credibility of online social media content is of tremendous importance. Credibility assessment is fundamentally based on aggregating credibility signals, which refer to small units of information, such as content factuality, bias, or a presence of persuasion techniques, into an overall credibility score. Credibility signals provide a more granular, more easily explainable and widely utilizable information in contrast to currently predominant fake news detection, which utilizes various (mostly latent) features. A growing body of research on automatic credibility assessment and detection of credibility signals can be characterized as highly fragmented and lacking mutual interconnections. This issue is even more prominent due to a lack of an up-to-date overview of research works on automatic credibility assessment. In this survey, we provide such systematic and comprehensive literature review of 175 research papers while focusing on textual credibility signals and Natural Language Processing (NLP), which undergoes a significant advancement due to Large Language Models (LLMs). While positioning the NLP research into the context of other multidisciplinary research works, we tackle with approaches for credibility assessment as well as with 9 categories of credibility signals (we provide a thorough analysis for 3 of them, namely: 1) factuality, subjectivity and bias, 2) persuasion techniques and logical fallacies, and 3) claims and veracity). Following the description of the existing methods, datasets and tools, we identify future challenges and opportunities, while paying a specific attention to recent rapid development of generative AI.

Descriptions of the Galactic Center using Fermi gamma-ray data have so far modeled the Galactic Center Excess (GCE) as a template with fixed spatial morphology or as a linear combination of such templates. Although these templates are informed by various physical expectations, the morphology of the excess is a priori unknown. For the first time, we describe the GCE using a flexible, non-parametric machine learning model -- the Gaussian process (GP). We assess our model's performance on synthetic data, demonstrating that the model can recover the templates used to generate the data. We then fit the \Fermi data with our model in a single energy bin from 2-20 GeV (leaving a spectral GP analysis of the GCE for future work) using a variety of template models of diffuse gamma-ray emission to quantify our fits' systematic uncertainties associated with diffuse emission modeling. We interpret our best-fit GP in terms of GCE templates consisting of an NFW squared template and a bulge component to determine which bulge models can best describe the fitted GP and to what extent the best-fit GP is described better by an NFW squared template versus a bulge template. The best-fit GP contains morphological features that are typically not associated with traditional GCE studies. These include a localized bright source at around $(\ell,b) = (20^{\circ}, 0^{\circ})$ and a diagonal arm extending Northwest from the Galactic Center. In spite of these novel features, the fitted GP is explained best by a template-based model consisting of the bulge presented in Coleman et al. (2020) and a squared NFW component. Our results suggest that the physical interpretation of the GCE in terms of stellar bulge and NFW-like components is highly sensitive to the assumed morphologies, background models, and the region of the sky used for inference.