We consider Inverse Optimal Stopping (IOS) problem where, based on stopped expert trajectories, one aims to recover the optimal stopping region through continuation and stopping gain functions approximation. The uniqueness of the stopping region allows the use of IOS in real-world applications with safety concerns. While current state-of-the-art inverse reinforcement learning methods recover both a Q-function and the corresponding optimal policy, they fail to account for specific challenges posed by optimal stopping problems. These include data sparsity near the stopping region, non-Markovian nature of the continuation gain, a proper treatment of boundary conditions, the need for a stable offline approach for risk-sensitive applications, and a lack of a quality evaluation metric. These challenges are addressed with the proposed Dynamics-Aware Offline Inverse Q-Learning for Optimal Stopping (DO-IQS), which incorporates temporal information by approximating the cumulative continuation gain together with the world dynamics and the Q-function without querying to the environment. Moreover, a confidence-based oversampling approach is proposed to treat the data sparsity problem. We demonstrate the performance of our models on real and artificial data including an optimal intervention for critical events problem.

Discovering physical laws from data is a fundamental challenge in scientific research, particularly when high-quality data are scarce or costly to obtain. Traditional methods for identifying dynamical systems often struggle with noise sensitivity, inefficiency in data usage, and the inability to quantify uncertainty effectively. To address these challenges, we propose Langevin-Assisted Active Physical Discovery (LAPD), a Bayesian framework that integrates replica-exchange stochastic gradient Langevin Monte Carlo to simultaneously enable efficient system identification and robust uncertainty quantification (UQ). By balancing gradient-driven exploration in coefficient space and generating an ensemble of candidate models during exploitation, LAPD achieves reliable, uncertainty-aware identification with noisy data. In the face of data scarcity, the probabilistic foundation of LAPD further promotes the integration of active learning (AL) via a hybrid uncertainty-space-filling acquisition function. This strategy sequentially selects informative data to reduce data collection costs while maintaining accuracy. We evaluate LAPD on diverse nonlinear systems such as the Lotka-Volterra, Lorenz, Burgers, and Convection-Diffusion equations, demonstrating its robustness with noisy and limited data as well as superior uncertainty calibration compared to existing methods. The AL extension reduces the required measurements by around 60% for the Lotka-Volterra system and by around 40% for Burgers' equation compared to random data sampling, highlighting its potential for resource-constrained experiments. Our framework establishes a scalable, uncertainty-aware methodology for data-efficient discovery of dynamical systems, with broad applicability to problems where high-fidelity data acquisition is prohibitively expensive.

--Metaphorical expressions are abundant in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM), conveying complex disease mechanisms and holistic health concepts through culturally rich and often abstract terminology. Bridging these metaphors to anatomically driven Western medical (WM) concepts poses significant challenges for both automated language processing and real-world clinical practice. T o address this gap, we propose a novel multi-agent and chain-of-thought (CoT) framework designed to interpret TCM metaphors accurately and map them to WM pathophysiology. Specifically, our approach combines domain-specialized agents (TCM Expert, WM Expert) with a Coordinator Agent, leveraging stepwise chain-of-thought prompts to ensure transparent reasoning and conflict resolution. We detail a methodology for building a metaphor-rich TCM dataset, discuss strategies for effectively integrating multi-agent collaboration and CoT reasoning, and articulate the theoretical underpinnings that guide metaphor interpretation across distinct medical paradigms. We present a comprehensive system design and highlight both the potential benefits and limitations of our approach, while leaving placeholders for future experimental validation. Our work aims to support clinical decision-making, cross-system educational initiatives, and integrated healthcare research, ultimately offering a robust scaffold for reconciling TCM's symbolic language with the mechanistic focus of Western medicine.

In recent years, the ascendance of diffusion modeling as a state-of-the-art generative modeling approach has spurred significant interest in their use as priors in Bayesian inverse problems. However, it is unclear how to optimally integrate a diffusion model trained on the prior distribution with a given likelihood function to obtain posterior samples. While algorithms that have been developed for this purpose can produce high-quality, diverse point estimates of the unknown parameters of interest, they are often tested on problems where the prior distribution is analytically unknown, making it difficult to assess their performance in providing rigorous uncertainty quantification. In this work, we introduce a new framework, Bayesian Inverse Problem Solvers through Diffusion Annealing (BIPSDA), for diffusion model based posterior sampling. The framework unifies several recently proposed diffusion model based posterior sampling algorithms and contains novel algorithms that can be realized through flexible combinations of design choices. Algorithms within our framework were tested on model problems with a Gaussian mixture prior and likelihood functions inspired by problems in image inpainting, x-ray tomography, and phase retrieval. In this setting, approximate ground-truth posterior samples can be obtained, enabling principled evaluation of the performance of the algorithms. The results demonstrate that BIPSDA algorithms can provide strong performance on the image inpainting and x-ray tomography based problems, while the challenging phase retrieval problem, which is difficult to sample from even when the posterior density is known, remains outside the reach of the diffusion model based samplers.

With the rapid growth of IoT devices, ensuring robust network security has become a critical challenge. Traditional intrusion detection systems (IDSs) often face limitations in detecting sophisticated attacks within high-dimensional and complex data environments. This paper presents a novel approach to network anomaly detection using hyperdimensional computing (HDC) techniques, specifically applied to the NSL-KDD dataset. The proposed method leverages the efficiency of HDC in processing large-scale data to identify both known and unknown attack patterns. The model achieved an accuracy of 91.55% on the KDDTrain+ subset, outperforming traditional approaches. These comparative evaluations underscore the model's superior performance, highlighting its potential in advancing anomaly detection for IoT networks and contributing to more secure and intelligent cybersecurity solutions.

Posterior sampling with the spike-and-slab prior [MB88], a popular multimodal distribution used to model uncertainty in variable selection, is considered the theoretical gold standard method for Bayesian sparse linear regression [CPS09, Roc18]. However, designing provable algorithms for performing this sampling task is notoriously challenging. Existing posterior samplers for Bayesian sparse variable selection tasks either require strong assumptions about the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) [YWJ16], only work when the measurement count grows at least linearly in the dimension [MW24], or rely on heuristic approximations to the posterior. We give the first provable algorithms for spike-and-slab posterior sampling that apply for any SNR, and use a measurement count sublinear in the problem dimension. Concretely, assume we are given a measurement matrix $\mathbf{X} \in \mathbb{R}^{n\times d}$ and noisy observations $\mathbf{y} = \mathbf{X}\mathbf{\theta}^\star + \mathbf{\xi}$ of a signal $\mathbf{\theta}^\star$ drawn from a spike-and-slab prior $\pi$ with a Gaussian diffuse density and expected sparsity k, where $\mathbf{\xi} \sim \mathcal{N}(\mathbb{0}_n, \sigma^2\mathbf{I}_n)$. We give a polynomial-time high-accuracy sampler for the posterior $\pi(\cdot \mid \mathbf{X}, \mathbf{y})$, for any SNR $\sigma^{-1}$ > 0, as long as $n \geq k^3 \cdot \text{polylog}(d)$ and $X$ is drawn from a matrix ensemble satisfying the restricted isometry property. We further give a sampler that runs in near-linear time $\approx nd$ in the same setting, as long as $n \geq k^5 \cdot \text{polylog}(d)$. To demonstrate the flexibility of our framework, we extend our result to spike-and-slab posterior sampling with Laplace diffuse densities, achieving similar guarantees when $\sigma = O(\frac{1}{k})$ is bounded.

Gaussian Process (GP) models are widely utilized as surrogate models in scientific and engineering fields. However, standard GP models are limited to continuous variables due to the difficulties in establishing correlation structures for categorical variables. To overcome this limitati on, we introduce WEighted Euclidean distance matrices Gaussian Process (WEGP). WEGP constructs the kernel function for each categorical input by estimating the Euclidean distance matrix (EDM) among all categorical choices of this input. The EDM is represented as a linear combination of several predefined base EDMs, each scaled by a positive weight. The weights, along with other kernel hyperparameters, are inferred using a fully Bayesian framework. We analyze the predictive performance of WEGP theoretically. Numerical experiments validate the accuracy of our GP model, and by WEGP, into Bayesian Optimization (BO), we achieve superior performance on both synthetic and real-world optimization problems.

In many practical applications of machine learning, a discrepancy often arises between a source distribution from which labeled training examples are drawn and a target distribution for which only unlabeled data is observed. Traditionally, two main scenarios have been considered to address this issue: covariate shift (CS), where only the marginal distribution of features changes, and label shift (LS), which involves a change in the class variable's prior distribution. However, these frameworks do not encompass all forms of distributional shift. This paper introduces a new setting, Conditional Probability Shift (CPS), which captures the case when the conditional distribution of the class variable given some specific features changes while the distribution of remaining features given the specific features and the class is preserved. For this scenario we present the Conditional Probability Shift Model (CPSM) based on modeling the class variable's conditional probabilities using multinomial regression. Since the class variable is not observed for the target data, the parameters of the multinomial model for its distribution are estimated using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. The proposed method is generic and can be combined with any probabilistic classifier. The effectiveness of CPSM is demonstrated through experiments on synthetic datasets and a case study using the MIMIC medical database, revealing its superior balanced classification accuracy on the target data compared to existing methods, particularly in situations situations of conditional distribution shift and no apriori distribution shift, which are not detected by LS-based methods.

Rigorous statistical evaluations of large language models (LLMs), including valid error bars and significance testing, are essential for meaningful and reliable performance assessment. Currently, when such statistical measures are reported, they typically rely on the Central Limit Theorem (CLT). In this position paper, we argue that while CLT-based methods for uncertainty quantification are appropriate when benchmarks consist of thousands of examples, they fail to provide adequate uncertainty estimates for LLM evaluations that rely on smaller, highly specialized benchmarks. In these small-data settings, we demonstrate that CLT-based methods perform very poorly, usually dramatically underestimating uncertainty (i.e. producing error bars that are too small). We give recommendations for alternative frequentist and Bayesian methods that are both easy to implement and more appropriate in these increasingly common scenarios. We provide a simple Python library for these Bayesian methods at https://github.com/sambowyer/bayes_evals .

Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) provides a flexible framework for updating prior distributions using various loss functions instead of the traditional likelihoods, thereby enhancing the model robustness to model misspecification. However, GBI often suffers the problem associated with intractable likelihoods. Kernelized Stein Discrepancy (KSD), as utilized in a recent study, addresses this challenge by relying only on the gradient of the log-likelihood. Despite this innovation, KSD-Bayes suffers from critical pathologies, including insensitivity to well-separated modes in multimodal posteriors. To address this limitation, we propose a weighted KSD method that retains computational efficiency while effectively capturing multimodal structures. Our method improves the GBI framework for handling intractable multimodal posteriors while maintaining key theoretical properties such as posterior consistency and asymptotic normality. Experimental results demonstrate that our method substantially improves mode sensitivity compared to standard KSD-Bayes, while retaining robust performance in unimodal settings and in the presence of outliers.