Fault diagnosis of mechanical equipment involves data collection, feature extraction, and pattern recognition but is often hindered by the imbalanced nature of industrial data, introducing significant uncertainty and reducing diagnostic reliability. To address these challenges, this study proposes the Uncertainty-Aware Bayesian Meta-Learning Framework (UBMF), which integrates four key modules: data perturbation injection for enhancing feature robustness, cross-task self-supervised feature extraction for improving transferability, uncertainty-based sample filtering for robust out-of-domain generalization, and Bayesian meta-knowledge integration for fine-grained classification. Experimental results on ten open-source datasets under various imbalanced conditions, including cross-task, small-sample, and unseen-sample scenarios, demonstrate the superiority of UBMF, achieving an average improvement of 42.22% across ten Any-way 1-5-shot diagnostic tasks. This integrated framework effectively enhances diagnostic accuracy, generalization, and adaptability, providing a reliable solution for complex industrial fault diagnosis.

As modern neural networks get more complex, specifying a model with high predictive performance and sound uncertainty quantification becomes a more challenging task. Despite some promising theoretical results on the true posterior predictive distribution of Bayesian neural networks, the properties of even the most commonly used posterior approximations are often questioned. Computational burdens and intractable posteriors expose miscalibrated Bayesian neural networks to poor accuracy and unreliable uncertainty estimates. Approximate Bayesian inference aims to replace unknown and intractable posterior distributions with some simpler but feasible distributions. The dimensions of modern deep models coupled with the lack of identifiability make Markov chain Monte Carlo tremendously expensive and unable to fully explore the multimodal posterior. On the other hand, variational inference benefits from improved computational complexity but lacks the asymptotical guarantees of sampling-based inference and tends to concentrate around a single mode. The performance of both approaches heavily depends on architectural choices; this paper aims to shed some light on this, by considering the computational costs, accuracy and uncertainty quantification in different scenarios including large width and out-of-sample data. To improve posterior exploration, different model averaging and ensembling techniques are studied, along with their benefits on predictive performance. In our experiments, variational inference overall provided better uncertainty quantification than Markov chain Monte Carlo; further, stacking and ensembles of variational approximations provided comparable to Markov chain Monte Carlo accuracy at a much-reduced cost.

In the current work, we connect token-level uncertainty in causal language modeling to two types of training objectives: 1) masked maximum likelihood (MLE), 2) self-distillation. We show that masked MLE is effective in reducing epistemic uncertainty, and serve as an effective token-level automatic curriculum learning technique. However, masked MLE is prone to overfitting and requires self-distillation regularization to improve or maintain performance on out-of-distribution tasks. We demonstrate significant performance gain via the proposed training objective - combined masked MLE and self-distillation - across multiple architectures (Gemma, LLaMA, Phi) and datasets (Alpaca, ShareGPT, GSM8K), mitigating overfitting while maintaining adaptability during post-training. Our findings suggest that uncertainty-aware training provides an effective mechanism for enhancing language model training.

The rapid growth of mobile banking (m-banking), especially after the COVID-19 pandemic, has reshaped the financial sector. This study analyzes consumer reviews of m-banking apps from five major Canadian banks, collected from Google Play and iOS App stores. Sentiment analysis and topic modeling classify reviews as positive, neutral, or negative, highlighting user preferences and areas for improvement. Data pre-processing was performed with NLTK, a Python language processing tool, and topic modeling used Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA). Sentiment analysis compared methods, with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) achieving 82\% accuracy for iOS reviews and Multinomial Naive Bayes 77\% for Google Play. Positive reviews praised usability, reliability, and features, while negative reviews identified login issues, glitches, and dissatisfaction with updates.This is the first study to analyze both iOS and Google Play m-banking app reviews, offering insights into app strengths and weaknesses. Findings underscore the importance of user-friendly designs, stable updates, and better customer service. Advanced text analytics provide actionable recommendations for improving user satisfaction and experience.

Real-life combinatorial optimization problems often involve several conflicting objectives, such as price, product quality and sustainability. A computationally-efficient way to tackle multiple objectives is to aggregate them into a single-objective function, such as a linear combination. However, defining the weights of the linear combination upfront is hard; alternatively, the use of interactive learning methods that ask users to compare candidate solutions is highly promising. The key challenges are to generate candidates quickly, to learn an objective function that leads to high-quality solutions and to do so with few user interactions. We build upon the Constructive Preference Elicitation framework and show how each of the three properties can be improved: to increase the interaction speed we investigate using pools of (relaxed) solutions, to improve the learning we adopt Maximum Likelihood Estimation of a Bradley-Terry preference model; and to reduce the number of user interactions, we select the pair of candidates to compare with an ensemble-based acquisition function inspired from Active Learning. Our careful experimentation demonstrates each of these improvements: on a PC configuration task and a realistic multi-instance routing problem, our method selects queries faster, needs fewer queries and synthesizes higher-quality combinatorial solutions than previous CPE methods.

Q-learning is a widely used reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm for optimizing wireless networks, but faces challenges with large state-spaces. Recently proposed multi-environment mixed Q-learning (MEMQ) algorithm addresses these challenges by employing multiple Q-learning algorithms across multiple synthetically generated, distinct but structurally related environments, so-called digital cousins. In this paper, we propose a novel multi-agent MEMQ (M-MEMQ) for cooperative decentralized wireless networks with multiple networked transmitters (TXs) and base stations (BSs). TXs do not have access to global information (joint state and actions). The new concept of coordinated and uncoordinated states is introduced. In uncoordinated states, TXs act independently to minimize their individual costs and update local Q-functions. In coordinated states, TXs use a Bayesian approach to estimate the joint state and update the joint Q-functions. The cost of information-sharing scales linearly with the number of TXs and is independent of the joint state-action space size. Several theoretical guarantees, including deterministic and probabilistic convergence, bounds on estimation error variance, and the probability of misdetecting the joint states, are given. Numerical simulations show that M-MEMQ outperforms several decentralized and centralized training with decentralized execution (CTDE) multi-agent RL algorithms by achieving 55% lower average policy error (APE), 35% faster convergence, 50% reduced runtime complexity, and 45% less sample complexity. Furthermore, M-MEMQ achieves comparable APE with significantly lower complexity than centralized methods. Simulations validate the theoretical analyses.

Regularized system identification has become a significant complement to more classical system identification. It has been numerically shown that kernel-based regularized estimators often perform better than the maximum likelihood estimator in terms of minimizing mean squared error (MSE). However, regularized estimators often require hyper-parameter estimation. This paper focuses on ridge regression and the regularized estimator by employing the empirical Bayes hyper-parameter estimator. We utilize the excess MSE to quantify the MSE difference between the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator and the maximum likelihood estimator for large sample sizes. We then exploit the excess MSE expressions to develop both a family of generalized Bayes estimators and a family of closed-form biased estimators. They have the same excess MSE as the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator but eliminate the need for hyper-parameter estimation. Moreover, we conduct numerical simulations to show that the performance of these new estimators is comparable to the empirical-Bayes-based regularized estimator, while computationally, they are more efficient.

This paper proposes a new class of predictive models for survival analysis called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). It is well known that survival analysis poses many different challenges, in particular when applied to small data or censorship mechanism. Our contribution is the proposal of an ensemble approach that uses Bayesian bootstrap and beta Stacy bootstrap methods to improve the outcome in survival application with a special focus on small datasets. More precisely, a novel approach to integrate Beta Stacy Bayesian bootstrap in bagging tree models for censored data is proposed in this paper. Empirical evidence achieved on simulated and real data underlines that our approach performs better in terms of predictive performances and stability of the results compared with classical survival models available in the literature. In terms of methodology our novel contribution considers the adaptation of recent Bayesian ensemble approaches to survival data, providing a new model called Generalized Bayesian Ensemble Survival Tree (GBEST). A further result in terms of computational novelty is the implementation in R of GBEST, available in a public GitHub repository.

Sequential design of real and computer experiments via Gaussian Process (GP) models has proven useful for parsimonious, goal-oriented data acquisition purposes. In this work, we focus on acquisition strategies for a GP model that needs to be accurate within a predefined range of the response of interest. Such an approach is useful in various fields including synthetic chemistry, where finding molecules with particular properties is essential for developing useful materials and effective medications. GP modeling and sequential design of experiments have been successfully applied to a plethora of domains, including molecule research. Our main contribution here is to use the threshold-weighted Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) as a basic building block for acquisition functions employed within sequential design. We study pointwise and integral criteria relying on two different weighting measures and benchmark them against competitors, demonstrating improved performance with respect to considered goals. The resulting acquisition strategies are applicable to a wide range of fields and pave the way to further developing sequential design relying on scoring rules.

The problem of the priors is well known: it concerns the challenge of identifying norms that govern one's prior credences. I argue that a key to addressing this problem lies in considering what I call the problem of the posteriors -- the challenge of identifying norms that directly govern one's posterior credences, which then induce constraints on the priors via the diachronic requirement of conditionalization. This forward-looking approach can be summarized as: Think ahead, work backward. Although this idea can be traced to Freedman (1963), Carnap (1963), and Shimony (1970), it has received little attention in philosophy. In this paper, I initiate a systematic defense of forward-looking Bayesianism, addressing potential objections from more traditional views (both subjectivist and objectivist) and arguing for its advantages. In particular, I develop a specific approach to forward-looking Bayesianism -- one that treats the convergence of posterior credences to the truth as a fundamental rather than derived normative requirement. This approach, called convergentist Bayesianism, is argued to be crucial for a Bayesian foundation of Ockham's razor and related inference methods in statistics and machine learning.