Context: Astronomy and astrophysics demand rigorous handling of uncertainties to ensure the credibility of outcomes. The growing integration of artificial intelligence offers a novel avenue to address this necessity. This convergence presents an opportunity to create advanced models capable of quantifying diverse sources of uncertainty and automating complex data relationship exploration. What: We introduce a hierarchical Bayesian architecture whose probabilistic relationships are modeled by neural networks, designed to forecast stellar attributes such as mass, radius, and age (our main target). This architecture handles both observational uncertainties stemming from measurements and epistemic uncertainties inherent in the predictive model itself. As a result, our system generates distributions that encapsulate the potential range of values for our predictions, providing a comprehensive understanding of their variability and robustness. Methods: Our focus is on dating main sequence stars using a technique known as Chemical Clocks, which serves as both our primary astronomical challenge and a model prototype. In this work, we use hierarchical architectures to account for correlations between stellar parameters and optimize information extraction from our dataset. We also employ Bayesian neural networks for their versatility and flexibility in capturing complex data relationships. Results: By integrating our machine learning algorithm into a Bayesian framework, we have successfully propagated errors consistently and managed uncertainty treatment effectively, resulting in predictions characterized by broader uncertainty margins. This approach facilitates more conservative estimates in stellar dating. Our architecture achieves age predictions with a mean absolute error of less than 1 Ga for the stars in the test dataset.

We propose a method to explore the flavor structure of leptons using diffusion models, which are known as one of generative artificial intelligence (generative AI). We consider a simple extension of the Standard Model with the type I seesaw mechanism and train a neural network to generate the neutrino mass matrix. By utilizing transfer learning, the diffusion model generates 104 solutions that are consistent with the neutrino mass squared differences and the leptonic mixing angles. The distributions of the CP phases and the sums of neutrino masses, which are not included in the conditional labels but are calculated from the solutions, exhibit non-trivial tendencies. In addition, the effective mass in neutrinoless double beta decay is concentrated near the boundaries of the existing confidence intervals, allowing us to verify the obtained solutions through future experiments. An inverse approach using the diffusion model is expected to facilitate the experimental verification of flavor models from a perspective distinct from conventional analytical methods.

The rapid digitalisation of contemporary society has profoundly impacted various facets of our lives, including healthcare, communication, business, and education. The ability to engage with new technologies and solve problems has become crucial, making CT skills, such as pattern recognition, decomposition, and algorithm design, essential competencies. In response, Switzerland is conducting research and initiatives to integrate CT into its educational system. This study aims to develop a comprehensive framework for large-scale assessment of CT skills, particularly focusing on AT, the ability to design algorithms. To achieve this, we first developed a competence model capturing the situated and developmental nature of CT, guiding the design of activities tailored to cognitive abilities, age, and context. This framework clarifies how activity characteristics influence CT development and how to assess these competencies. Additionally, we developed an activity for large-scale assessment of AT skills, offered in two variants: one based on non-digital artefacts (unplugged) and manual expert assessment, and the other based on digital artefacts (virtual) and automatic assessment. To provide a more comprehensive evaluation of students' competencies, we developed an IAS based on BNs with noisy gates, which offers real-time probabilistic assessment for each skill rather than a single overall score. The results indicate that the proposed instrument can measure AT competencies across different age groups and educational contexts in Switzerland, demonstrating its applicability for large-scale use. AT competencies exhibit a progressive development, with no overall gender differences, though variations are observed at the school level, significantly influenced by the artefact-based environment and its context, underscoring the importance of creating accessible and adaptable assessment tools.

Decision making under uncertainty is a cross-cutting challenge in science and engineering. Most approaches to this challenge employ probabilistic representations of uncertainty. In complicated systems accessible only via data or black-box models, however, these representations are rarely known. We discuss how to characterize and manipulate such representations using triangular transport maps, which approximate any complex probability distribution as a transformation of a simple, well-understood distribution. The particular structure of triangular transport guarantees many desirable mathematical and computational properties that translate well into solving practical problems. Triangular maps are actively used for density estimation, (conditional) generative modelling, Bayesian inference, data assimilation, optimal experimental design, and related tasks. While there is ample literature on the development and theory of triangular transport methods, this manuscript provides a detailed introduction for scientists interested in employing measure transport without assuming a formal mathematical background. We build intuition for the key foundations of triangular transport, discuss many aspects of its practical implementation, and outline the frontiers of this field.

We introduce squared families, which are families of probability densities obtained by squaring a linear transformation of a statistic. Squared families are singular, however their singularity can easily be handled so that they form regular models. After handling the singularity, squared families possess many convenient properties. Their Fisher information is a conformal transformation of the Hessian metric induced from a Bregman generator. The Bregman generator is the normalising constant, and yields a statistical divergence on the family. The normalising constant admits a helpful parameter-integral factorisation, meaning that only one parameter-independent integral needs to be computed for all normalising constants in the family, unlike in exponential families. Finally, the squared family kernel is the only integral that needs to be computed for the Fisher information, statistical divergence and normalising constant. We then describe how squared families are special in the broader class of $g$-families, which are obtained by applying a sufficiently regular function $g$ to a linear transformation of a statistic. After removing special singularities, positively homogeneous families and exponential families are the only $g$-families for which the Fisher information is a conformal transformation of the Hessian metric, where the generator depends on the parameter only through the normalising constant. Even-order monomial families also admit parameter-integral factorisations, unlike exponential families. We study parameter estimation and density estimation in squared families, in the well-specified and misspecified settings. We use a universal approximation property to show that squared families can learn sufficiently well-behaved target densities at a rate of $\mathcal{O}(N^{-1/2})+C n^{-1/4}$, where $N$ is the number of datapoints, $n$ is the number of parameters, and $C$ is some constant.

Continual learning (CL) refers to the ability to continuously learn and accumulate new knowledge while retaining useful information from past experiences. Although numerous CL methods have been proposed in recent years, it is not straightforward to deploy them directly to real-world decision-making problems due to their computational cost and lack of uncertainty quantification. To address these issues, we propose CL-BRUNO, a probabilistic, Neural Process-based CL model that performs scalable and tractable Bayesian update and prediction. Our proposed approach uses deep-generative models to create a unified probabilistic framework capable of handling different types of CL problems such as task- and class-incremental learning, allowing users to integrate information across different CL scenarios using a single model. Our approach is able to prevent catastrophic forgetting through distributional and functional regularisation without the need of retaining any previously seen samples, making it appealing to applications where data privacy or storage capacity is of concern. Experiments show that CL-BRUNO outperforms existing methods on both natural image and biomedical data sets, confirming its effectiveness in real-world applications.

This paper describes the comprehensive safety framework th at underpinned the development, release process, and regulatory approval of BMW's first SAE Level 3 Au tomated Driving System. The framework combines established qualitative and quantitative me thods from the fields of Systems Engineering, Engineering Risk Analysis, Bayesian Data Analysis, Design of Experiments, and Statistical Learning in a novel manner. The approach systematically minimizes the r isks associated with hardware and software faults, performance limitations, and insufficient specifica tions to an acceptable level that achieves a Positive Risk Balance. At the core of the framework is the system atic identification and quantification of uncertainties associated with hazard scenarios and the red undantly designed system based on designed experiments, field data, and expert knowledge. The residual risk of the system is then estimated through Stochastic Simulation and evaluated by Sensitivity Analys is. By integrating these advanced analytical techniques into the V-Model, the framework fulfills, unifies, and complements existing automotive safety standards. It therefore provides a comprehensive, rigorou s, and transparent safety assurance process for the development and deployment of Automated Driving System s.

Careful curation of data sources can significantly improve the performance of LLM pre-training, but predominant approaches rely heavily on intuition or costly trial-and-error, making them difficult to generalize across different data domains and downstream tasks. Although scaling laws can provide a principled and general approach for data curation, standard deterministic extrapolation from small-scale experiments to larger scales requires strong assumptions on the reliability of such extrapolation, whose brittleness has been highlighted in prior works. In this paper, we introduce a $\textit{probabilistic extrapolation framework}$ for data mixture optimization that avoids rigid assumptions and explicitly models the uncertainty in performance across decision variables. We formulate data curation as a sequential decision-making problem$\unicode{x2013}$multi-fidelity, multi-scale Bayesian optimization$\unicode{x2013}$where $\{$data mixtures, model scale, training steps$\}$ are adaptively selected to balance training cost and potential information gain. Our framework naturally gives rise to algorithm prototypes that leverage noisy information from inexpensive experiments to systematically inform costly training decisions. To accelerate methodological progress, we build a simulator based on 472 language model pre-training runs with varying data compositions from the SlimPajama dataset. We observe that even simple kernels and acquisition functions can enable principled decisions across training models from 20M to 1B parameters and achieve $\textbf{2.6x}$ and $\textbf{3.3x}$ speedups compared to multi-fidelity BO and random search baselines. Taken together, our framework underscores potential efficiency gains achievable by developing principled and transferable data mixture optimization methods.

This study evaluates various architectures and compares their BER and BLER performance across different noise levels. Two novel models, the Dual Attention Transformer (DA T) and the Residual Dual Non-Local Attention Network (RDNLA), integrate self-attention and residual learning to enhance signal reconstruction. These models bypass conventional channel estimation and equalization by directly predicting log-likelihood ratios (LLRs) from received signals, with noise variance as an additional input. Simulations show that DA T and RDNLA outperform traditional and other neural receiver models under varying signal-to-noise ratios (SNR), while their computational efficiency supports their feasibility for next-generation communication systems.

In safety-critical applications, guaranteeing the satisfaction of constraints over continuous environments is crucial, e.g., an autonomous agent should never crash into obstacles or go off-road. Neural models struggle in the presence of these constraints, especially when they involve intricate algebraic relationships. To address this, we introduce a differentiable probabilistic layer that guarantees the satisfaction of non-convex algebraic constraints over continuous variables. This probabilistic algebraic layer (PAL) can be seamlessly plugged into any neural architecture and trained via maximum likelihood without requiring approximations. PAL defines a distribution over conjunctions and disjunctions of linear inequalities, parameterized by polynomials. This formulation enables efficient and exact renormalization via symbolic integration, which can be amortized across different data points and easily parallelized on a GPU. We showcase PAL and our integration scheme on a number of benchmarks for algebraic constraint integration and on real-world trajectory data.