Distributionally Robust Optimisation (DRO) protects risk-averse decision-makers by considering the worst-case risk within an ambiguity set of distributions based on the empirical distribution or a model. To further guard against finite, noisy data, model-based approaches admit Bayesian formulations that propagate uncertainty from the posterior to the decision-making problem. However, when the model is misspecified, the decision maker must stretch the ambiguity set to contain the data-generating process (DGP), leading to overly conservative decisions. We address this challenge by introducing DRO with Robust, to model misspecification, Bayesian Ambiguity Sets (DRO-RoBAS). These are Maximum Mean Discrepancy ambiguity sets centred at a robust posterior predictive distribution that incorporates beliefs about the DGP. We show that the resulting optimisation problem obtains a dual formulation in the Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space and we give probabilistic guarantees on the tolerance level of the ambiguity set. Our method outperforms other Bayesian and empirical DRO approaches in out-of-sample performance on the Newsvendor and Portfolio problems with various cases of model misspecification.

Bioprocess mechanistic modeling is essential for advancing intelligent digital twin representation of biomanufacturing, yet challenges persist due to complex intracellular regulation, stochastic system behavior, and limited experimental data. This paper introduces a symbolic and statistical learning framework to identify key regulatory mechanisms and quantify model uncertainty. Bioprocess dynamics is formulated with stochastic differential equations characterizing intrinsic process variability, with a predefined set of candidate regulatory mechanisms constructed from biological knowledge. A Bayesian learning approach is developed, which is based on a joint learning of kinetic parameters and regulatory structure through a formulation of the mixture model. To enhance computational efficiency, a Metropolis-adjusted Langevin algorithm with adjoint sensitivity analysis is developed for posterior exploration. Compared to state-of-the-art Bayesian inference approaches, the proposed framework achieves improved sample efficiency and robust model selection. An empirical study demonstrates its ability to recover missing regulatory mechanisms and improve model fidelity under data-limited conditions.

Membership Inference Attacks (MIAs) have recently been employed to determine whether a specific text was part of the pre-training data of Large Language Models (LLMs). However, existing methods often misinfer non-members as members, leading to a high false positive rate, or depend on additional reference models for probability calibration, which limits their practicality. To overcome these challenges, we introduce a novel framework called Automatic Calibration Membership Inference Attack (ACMIA), which utilizes a tunable temperature to calibrate output probabilities effectively. This approach is inspired by our theoretical insights into maximum likelihood estimation during the pre-training of LLMs. We introduce ACMIA in three configurations designed to accommodate different levels of model access and increase the probability gap between members and non-members, improving the reliability and robustness of membership inference. Extensive experiments on various open-source LLMs demonstrate that our proposed attack is highly effective, robust, and generalizable, surpassing state-of-the-art baselines across three widely used benchmarks. Our code is available at: Github. 1 Introduction Large Language Models (LLMs), pre-trained on massive text corpora, have shown impressive human-level language understanding, reasoning, and decision-making capabilities [4, 28, 1, 23]. However, their tendency to memorize training data also introduces significant ethical and security concerns [14, 31, 2, 21, 22].

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is pivotal in enhancing the robustness, reliability, and interpretability of Machine Learning (ML) systems for healthcare, optimizing resources and improving patient care. Despite the emergence of ML-based clinical decision support tools, the lack of principled quantification of uncertainty in ML models remains a major challenge. Current reviews have a narrow focus on analyzing the state-of-the-art UQ in specific healthcare domains without systematically evaluating method efficacy across different stages of model development, and despite a growing body of research, its implementation in healthcare applications remains limited. Therefore, in this survey, we provide a comprehensive analysis of current UQ in healthcare, offering an informed framework that highlights how different methods can be integrated into each stage of the ML pipeline including data processing, training and evaluation. We also highlight the most popular methods used in healthcare and novel approaches from other domains that hold potential for future adoption in the medical context. We expect this study will provide a clear overview of the challenges and opportunities of implementing UQ in the ML pipeline for healthcare, guiding researchers and practitioners in selecting suitable techniques to enhance the reliability, safety and trust from patients and clinicians on ML-driven healthcare solutions.

Cooperative transportation by multi-aerial robots has the potential to support various payloads and improve failsafe against dropping. Furthermore, changing the attachment positions of robots according payload characteristics increases the stability of transportation. However, there are almost no transportation systems capable of scaling to the payload weight and size and changing the optimal attachment positions. To address this issue, we propose a cooperative transportation system comprising autonomously executable software and suitable hardware, covering the entire process, from pre-takeoff setting to controlled flight. The proposed system decides the formation of the attachment positions by prioritizing controllability based on the center of gravity obtained from Bayesian estimations with robot pairs. We investigated the cooperative transportation of an unknown payload larger than that of whole carrier robots through numerical simulations. Furthermore, we performed cooperative transportation of an unknown payload (with a weight of about 3.2 kg and maximum length of 1.76 m) using eight robots. The proposed system was found to be versatile with regard to handling unknown payloads with different shapes and center-of-gravity positions.

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian framework is used to maintain beliefs about the optimal decisions and the unknown ingredients of the model, which are also to be learned from the data, such as the rewards and state dynamics. However, many existing Bayesian approaches for learning the optimal decision-making strategy are based on unrealistic modelling assumptions and utilise approximate inference techniques. This raises doubts whether the benefits of Bayesian uncertainty quantification are fully realised or can be relied upon. We focus on infinite-horizon and undiscounted MDPs, with finite state and action spaces, and a terminal state. We provide a full Bayesian framework, from modelling to inference to decision-making. For modelling, we introduce a likelihood function with minimal assumptions for learning the optimal action-value function based on Bellman's optimality equations, analyse its properties, and clarify connections to existing works. For deterministic rewards, the likelihood is degenerate and we introduce artificial observation noise to relax it, in a controlled manner, to facilitate more efficient Monte Carlo-based inference. For inference, we propose an adaptive sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to both sample from and adjust the sequence of relaxed posterior distributions. For decision-making, we choose actions using samples from the posterior distribution over the optimal strategies. While commonly done, we provide new insight that clearly shows that it is a generalisation of Thompson sampling from multi-arm bandit problems. Finally, we evaluate our framework on the Deep Sea benchmark problem and demonstrate the exploration benefits of posterior sampling in MDPs.

We revisit the Bayesian Black-Litterman (BL) portfolio model and remove its reliance on subjective investor views. Classical BL requires an investor "view": a forecast vector $q$ and its uncertainty matrix $Ω$ that describe how much a chosen portfolio should outperform the market. Our key idea is to treat $(q,Ω)$ as latent variables and learn them from market data within a single Bayesian network. Consequently, the resulting posterior estimation admits closed-form expression, enabling fast inference and stable portfolio weights. Building on these, we propose two mechanisms to capture how features interact with returns: shared-latent parametrization and feature-influenced views; both recover classical BL and Markowitz portfolios as special cases. Empirically, on 30-year Dow-Jones and 20-year sector-ETF data, we improve Sharpe ratios by 50% and cut turnover by 55% relative to Markowitz and the index baselines. This work turns BL into a fully data-driven, view-free, and coherent Bayesian framework for portfolio optimization.

World modelling, i.e. building a representation of the rules that govern the world so as to predict its evolution, is an essential ability for any agent interacting with the physical world. Despite their impressive performance, many solutions fail to learn a causal representation of the environment they are trying to model, which would be necessary to gain a deep enough understanding of the world to perform complex tasks. With this work, we aim to broaden the research in the intersection of causality theory and neural world modelling by assessing the potential for causal discovery of the State Space Model (SSM) architecture, which has been shown to have several advantages over the widespread Transformer. We show empirically that, compared to an equivalent Transformer, a SSM can model the dynamics of a simple environment and learn a causal model at the same time with equivalent or better performance, thus paving the way for further experiments that lean into the strength of SSMs and further enhance them with causal awareness.

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) are widely used in modeling sentence processing but often exhibit deterministic behavior, contrasting with human sentence comprehension, which manages uncertainty during ambiguous or unexpected inputs. This is exemplified by reversal anomalies--sentences with unexpected role reversals that challenge syntax and semantics--highlighting the limitations of traditional ANN models, such as the Sentence Gestalt (SG) Model. To address these limitations, we propose a Bayesian framework for sentence comprehension, applying an extention of the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for Bayesian inference to quantify uncertainty. By framing language comprehension as a Bayesian inverse problem, this approach enhances the SG model's ability to reflect human sentence processing with respect to the representation of uncertainty. Numerical experiments and comparisons with maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) demonstrate that Bayesian methods improve uncertainty representation, enabling the model to better approximate human cognitive processing when dealing with linguistic ambiguities. Introduction Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have become indispensable tools in modeling sentence processing within the field of natural language processing and cognitive science. These models are capable of handling complex linguistic structures, making accurate predictions, and resolving ambiguities with a notable degree of certainty, even when they are wrong Guo et al. (2017); Hein et al. (2019). However, this behavior stands in contrast to human sentence comprehension, which often involves managing uncertainty, especially when faced with ambiguous or unexpected language inputs. The research has been funded by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG)- Project-ID 318763901 - SFB1294.

Real-world data contains aleatoric uncertainty - irreducible noise arising from imperfect measurements or from incomplete knowledge about the data generation process. Mean variance estimation (MVE) networks can learn this type of uncertainty but require ad-hoc regularization strategies to avoid overfitting and are unable to predict epistemic uncertainty (model uncertainty). Conversely, Bayesian neural networks predict epistemic uncertainty but are notoriously difficult to train due to the approximate nature of Bayesian inference. We propose to cooperatively train a variance network with a Bayesian neural network and demonstrate that the resulting model disentangles aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties while improving the mean estimation. We demonstrate the effectiveness and scalability of this method across a diverse range of datasets, including a time-dependent heteroscedastic regression dataset we created where the aleatoric uncertainty is known. The proposed method is straightforward to implement, robust, and adaptable to various model architectures.