Meta-reinforcement learning trains a single reinforcement learning agent on a distribution of tasks to quickly generalize to new tasks outside of the training set at test time. From a Bayesian perspective, one can interpret this as performing amortized variational inference on the posterior distribution over training tasks. Among the various meta-reinforcement learning approaches, a common method is to represent this distribution with a point-estimate using a recurrent neural network. We show how one can augment this point estimate to give full distributions through the Laplace approximation, either at the start of, during, or after learning, without modifying the base model architecture. With our approximation, we are able to estimate distribution statistics (e.g., the entropy) of non-Bayesian agents and observe that point-estimate based methods produce overconfident estimators while not satisfying consistency. Furthermore, when comparing our approach to full-distribution based learning of the task posterior, our method performs on par with variational baselines while having much fewer parameters.

Discrete diffusion has recently emerged as a promising paradigm in discrete data modeling. However, existing methods typically rely on a fixed rate transition matrix during training, which not only limits the expressiveness of latent representations, a fundamental strength of variational methods, but also constrains the overall design space. To address these limitations, we propose Discrete Markov Bridge, a novel framework specifically designed for discrete representation learning. Our approach is built upon two key components: Matrix Learning and Score Learning. We conduct a rigorous theoretical analysis, establishing formal performance guarantees for Matrix Learning and proving the convergence of the overall framework. Furthermore, we analyze the space complexity of our method, addressing practical constraints identified in prior studies. Extensive empirical evaluations validate the effectiveness of the proposed Discrete Markov Bridge, which achieves an Evidence Lower Bound (ELBO) of 1.38 on the Text8 dataset, outperforming established baselines. Moreover, the proposed model demonstrates competitive performance on the CIFAR-10 dataset, achieving results comparable to those obtained by image-specific generation approaches.

Recent advances in cross-prompt automated essay scoring (AES) typically train models jointly on all source prompts, often requiring additional access to unlabeled target prompt essays simultaneously. However, using all sources is suboptimal in our pilot study, and re-accessing source datasets during adaptation raises privacy concerns. We propose a source-free adaptation approach that selectively merges individually trained source models' parameters instead of datasets. In particular, we simulate joint training through linear combinations of task vectors -- the parameter updates from fine-tuning. To optimize the combination's coefficients, we propose Prior-encoded Information Maximization (PIM), an unsupervised objective which promotes the model's score discriminability regularized by priors pre-computed from the sources. We employ Bayesian optimization as an efficient optimizer of PIM. Experimental results with LLMs on in-dataset and cross-dataset adaptation show that our method (1) consistently outperforms training jointly on all sources, (2) maintains superior robustness compared to other merging methods, (3) excels under severe distribution shifts where recent leading cross-prompt methods struggle, all while retaining computational efficiency.

Modern portfolio construction demands robust methods for integrating data-driven insights into asset allocation. The Black-Litterman model offers a powerful Bayesian approach to adjust equilibrium returns using investor views to form a posterior expectation along with market priors. Mainstream research mainly generates subjective views through statistical models or machine learning methods, among which hybrid models combined with decomposition algorithms perform well. However, most hybrid models do not pay enough attention to noise, and time series decomposition methods based on single variables make it difficult to fully utilize information between multiple variables. Multivariate decomposition also has problems of low efficiency and poor component quality. In this study, we propose a novel hybrid forecasting model SSA-MAEMD-TCN to automate and improve the view generation process. The proposed model combines Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) for denoising, Multivariate Aligned Empirical Mode Decomposition (MA-EMD) for frequency-aligned decomposition, and Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCNs) for deep sequence learning to capture complex temporal patterns across multiple financial indicators. Empirical tests on the Nasdaq 100 Index stocks show a significant improvement in forecasting performance compared to baseline models based on MAEMD and MEMD. The optimized portfolio performs well, with annualized returns and Sharpe ratios far exceeding those of the traditional portfolio over a short holding period, even after accounting for transaction costs.

Recent work has demonstrated that large-scale, multi-animal models are powerful tools for characterizing the relationship between neural activity and behavior. Current large-scale approaches, however, focus exclusively on either predicting neural activity from behavior (encoding) or predicting behavior from neural activity (decoding), limiting their ability to capture the bidirectional relationship between neural activity and behavior. To bridge this gap, we introduce a multimodal, multi-task model that enables simultaneous Neural Encoding and Decoding at Scale (NEDS). Central to our approach is a novel multi-task-masking strategy, which alternates between neural, behavioral, within-modality, and cross-modality masking. We pretrain our method on the International Brain Laboratory (IBL) repeated site dataset, which includes recordings from 83 animals performing the same visual decision-making task. In comparison to other large-scale models, we demonstrate that NEDS achieves state-of-the-art performance for both encoding and decoding when pretrained on multi-animal data and then fine-tuned on new animals. Surprisingly, NEDS's learned embeddings exhibit emergent properties: even without explicit training, they are highly predictive of the brain regions in each recording. Altogether, our approach is a step towards a foundation model of the brain that enables seamless translation between neural activity and behavior.

Recent advances in uncertainty estimation for Large Language Models (LLMs) during downstream adaptation have addressed key challenges of reliability and simplicity. However, existing Bayesian methods typically require multiple sampling iterations during inference, creating significant efficiency issues that limit practical deployment. In this paper, we investigate the possibility of eliminating the need for test-time sampling for LLM uncertainty estimation. Specifically, when given an off-the-shelf Bayesian LLM, we distill its aligned confidence into a non-Bayesian student LLM by minimizing the divergence between their predictive distributions. Unlike typical calibration methods, our distillation is carried out solely on the training dataset without the need of an additional validation dataset. This simple yet effective approach achieves N-times more efficient uncertainty estimation during testing, where N is the number of samples traditionally required by Bayesian LLMs. Our extensive experiments demonstrate that uncertainty estimation capabilities on training data can successfully generalize to unseen test data through our distillation technique, consistently producing results comparable to (or even better than) state-of-the-art Bayesian LLMs.

--Diffusion models (DMs) have recently achieved significant success in wireless communications systems due to their denoising capabilities. The broadcast nature of wireless signals makes them susceptible not only to Gaussian noise, but also to unaware interference. This raises the question of whether DMs can effectively mitigate interference in wireless semantic communication systems. In this paper, we model the interference cancellation problem as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) problem over the joint posterior probability of the signal and interference, and theoretically prove that the solution provides excellent estimates for the signal and interference. T o solve this problem, we develop an interference cancellation diffusion model (ICDM), which decomposes the joint posterior into independent prior probabilities of the signal and interference, along with the channel transition probablity. The log-gradients of these distributions at each time step are learned separately by DMs and accurately estimated through deriving. ICDM further integrates these gradients with advanced numerical iteration method, achieving accurate and rapid interference cancellation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that ICDM significantly reduces the mean square error (MSE) and enhances perceptual quality compared to schemes without ICDM. For example, on the CelebA dataset under the Rayleigh fading channel with a signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of 20 dB and signal to interference plus noise ratio (SINR) of 0 dB, ICDM reduces the MSE by 4 . Diffusion models (DMs) [1]-[4], which utilize a score function to model the gradient of the conditional data distribution, have recently achieved remarkable success in the field of artificial intelligence generated content (AIGC). These models are capable of generating controllable and high-quality content in various domains, including long-form text generation, controllable image generation, and consistent video generation. They have also become a fundamental technology for large language models (LLMs) such as GPT -4o. The inherent controllability of the content generated by diffusion models has significantly driven their application across diverse fields [5]-[7].

Ensuring safe operation of safety-critical complex systems interacting with their environment poses significant challenges, particularly when the system's world model relies on machine learning algorithms to process the perception input. A comprehensive safety argumentation requires knowledge of how faults or functional insufficiencies propagate through the system and interact with external factors, to manage their safety impact. While statistical analysis approaches can support the safety assessment, associative reasoning alone is neither sufficient for the safety argumentation nor for the identification and investigation of safety measures. A causal understanding of the system and its interaction with the environment is crucial for safeguarding safety-critical complex systems. It allows to transfer and generalize knowledge, such as insights gained from testing, and facilitates the identification of potential improvements. This work explores using causal Bayesian networks to model the system's causalities for safety analysis, and proposes measures to assess causal influences based on Pearl's framework of causal inference. We compare the approach of causal Bayesian networks to the well-established fault tree analysis, outlining advantages and limitations. In particular, we examine importance metrics typically employed in fault tree analysis as foundation to discuss suitable causal metrics. An evaluation is performed on the example of a perception system for automated driving. Overall, this work presents an approach for causal reasoning in safety analysis that enables the integration of data-driven and expert-based knowledge to account for uncertainties arising from complex systems operating in open environments.

Word segmentation stands as a cornerstone of Natural Language Processing (NLP). Based on the concept of "comprehend first, segment later", we propose a new framework to explore the limit of unsupervised word segmentation with Large Language Models (LLMs) and evaluate the semantic understanding capabilities of LLMs based on word segmentation. We employ current mainstream LLMs to perform word segmentation across multiple languages to assess LLMs' "comprehension". Our findings reveal that LLMs are capable of following simple prompts to segment raw text into words. There is a trend suggesting that models with more parameters tend to perform better on multiple languages. Additionally, we introduce a novel unsupervised method, termed LLACA ($\textbf{L}$arge $\textbf{L}$anguage Model-Inspired $\textbf{A}$ho-$\textbf{C}$orasick $\textbf{A}$utomaton). Leveraging the advanced pattern recognition capabilities of Aho-Corasick automata, LLACA innovatively combines these with the deep insights of well-pretrained LLMs. This approach not only enables the construction of a dynamic $n$-gram model that adjusts based on contextual information but also integrates the nuanced understanding of LLMs, offering significant improvements over traditional methods. Our source code is available at https://github.com/hkr04/LLACA

Machine learning systems are widely used in many high-stakes contexts in which experimental designs for assigning treatments are infeasible. When evaluating decisions is costly, such as investigating fraud cases, or evaluating biopsy decisions, a sample-efficient strategy is needed. However, while existing active learning methods assume humans will always label the instances selected by the machine learning model, in many critical applications, humans may decline to label instances selected by the machine learning model due to reasons such as regulation constraint, domain knowledge, or algorithmic aversion, thus not sample efficient. In this paper, we study the Active Learning with Instance Rejection (ALIR) problem, which considers the human discretion behavior for high-stakes decision making problems. We propose new active learning algorithms under deep bayesian active learning for selective labeling (SEL-BALD) to address the ALIR problem. Our algorithms consider how to acquire information for both the machine learning model and the human discretion model.