Stochastic simulators exhibit intrinsic stochasticity due to unobservable, uncontrollable, or unmodeled input variables, resulting in random outputs even at fixed input conditions. Such simulators are common across various scientific disciplines; however, emulating their entire conditional probability distribution is challenging, as it is a task traditional deterministic surrogate modeling techniques are not designed for. Additionally, accurately characterizing the response distribution can require prohibitively large datasets, especially for computationally expensive high-fidelity (HF) simulators. When lower-fidelity (LF) stochastic simulators are available, they can enhance limited HF information within a multifidelity surrogate modeling (MFSM) framework. While MFSM techniques are well-established for deterministic settings, constructing multifidelity emulators to predict the full conditional response distribution of stochastic simulators remains a challenge. In this paper, we propose multifidelity generalized lambda models (MF-GLaMs) to efficiently emulate the conditional response distribution of HF stochastic simulators by exploiting data from LF stochastic simulators. Our approach builds upon the generalized lambda model (GLaM), which represents the conditional distribution at each input by a flexible, four-parameter generalized lambda distribution. MF-GLaMs are non-intrusive, requiring no access to the internal stochasticity of the simulators nor multiple replications of the same input values. We demonstrate the efficacy of MF-GLaM through synthetic examples of increasing complexity and a realistic earthquake application. Results show that MF-GLaMs can achieve improved accuracy at the same cost as single-fidelity GLaMs, or comparable performance at significantly reduced cost.

Data privacy is a central concern in many applications involving ranking from incomplete and noisy pairwise comparisons, such as recommendation systems, educational assessments, and opinion surveys on sensitive topics. In this work, we propose differentially private algorithms for ranking based on pairwise comparisons. Specifically, we develop and analyze ranking methods under two privacy notions: edge differential privacy, which protects the confidentiality of individual comparison outcomes, and individual differential privacy, which safeguards potentially many comparisons contributed by a single individual. Our algorithms--including a perturbed maximum likelihood estimator and a noisy count-based method--are shown to achieve minimax optimal rates of convergence under the respective privacy constraints. We further demonstrate the practical effectiveness of our methods through experiments on both simulated and real-world data.

Continual learning is an online paradigm where a learner continually accumulates knowledge from different tasks encountered over sequential time steps. Importantly, the learner is required to extend and update its knowledge without forgetting about the learning experience acquired from the past, and while avoiding the need to retrain from scratch. Given its sequential nature and its resemblance to the way humans think, continual learning offers an opportunity to address several challenges which currently stand in the way of widening the range of applicability of deep models to further real-world problems. The continual need to update the learner with data arriving sequentially strikes inherent congruence between continual learning and Bayesian inference which provides a principal platform to keep updating the prior beliefs of a model given new data, without completely forgetting the knowledge acquired from the old data. This survey inspects different settings of Bayesian continual learning, namely task-incremental learning and class-incremental learning. We begin by discussing definitions of continual learning along with its Bayesian setting, as well as the links with related fields, such as domain adaptation, transfer learning and meta-learning. Afterwards, we introduce a taxonomy offering a comprehensive categorization of algorithms belonging to the Bayesian continual learning paradigm. Meanwhile, we analyze the state-of-the-art while zooming in on some of the most prominent Bayesian continual learning algorithms to date. Furthermore, we shed some light on links between continual learning and developmental psychology, and correspondingly introduce analogies between both fields. We follow that with a discussion of current challenges, and finally conclude with potential areas for future research on Bayesian continual learning.

We show that deep neural networks, including transformers and RNNs, pretrained as usual on next-token prediction, intrinsically discover and represent beliefs over 'quantum' and 'post-quantum' low-dimensional generative models of their training data -- as if performing iterative Bayesian updates over the latent state of this world model during inference as they observe more context. Notably, neural nets easily find these representation whereas there is no finite classical circuit that would do the job. The corresponding geometric relationships among neural activations induced by different input sequences are found to be largely independent of neural-network architecture. Each point in this geometry corresponds to a history-induced probability density over all possible futures, and the relative displacement of these points reflects the difference in mechanism and magnitude for how these distinct pasts affect the future.

As Large Language Models (LLMs) and other AI systems evolve, robustly estimating their capabilities from inherently stochastic outputs while systematically quantifying uncertainty in these estimates becomes increasingly important. Further, advanced AI evaluations often have a nested hierarchical structure, exhibit high levels of complexity, and come with high costs in testing the most advanced AI systems. To address these challenges, we introduce HiBayES, a generalizable Hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework for AI Evaluation Statistics. HiBayES supports robust inferences in classical question-answer benchmarks and advanced agentic evaluations, particularly in low-data scenarios (e.g., < 20 data points per evaluation). Built on Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), Bayesian data analysis, and formal model comparison, HiBayES provides principled uncertainty quantification and robust parameter estimation. This paper offers a comprehensive introduction to HiBayES, including illustrative examples, comparisons to conventional statistical methods, and practical guidance for implementing multilevel Bayesian GLMs. Additionally, we provide a HiBayES software package [4] (Beta version) for out-of-the-box implementation.

--Detecting DNS tunneling is a significant challenge in cybersecurity due to its capacity to hide harmful actions within DNS traffic that appears to be normal and legitimate. Traditional detection methods based on rule-based approaches or signature matching are often insufficient to accurately identify such covert communication channels. This paper addresses the necessity of machine learning methods for effective DNS tunneling detection. We propose a novel approach to detect DNS tunneling. Through the combination of advanced machine learning algorithms and the analysis of various features extracted from DNS traffic, our aim is to provide an accurate DNS tunneling detection model. A. About the Subject The Domain Name System (DNS) is a hierarchical and decentralized naming system crucial for internet functionality [1]. As a core component of internet infrastructure, DNS is used in nearly every online transaction, making it a prime target for a variety of cyber threats. Due to its foundational role and widespread trust, DNS is vulnerable to several types of attacks, threat landscape can be seen in [2], such as cache poisoning, amplification and DoS attacks, and phishing attacks. These vulnerabilities offer attackers multiple possibilities to disrupt or manipulate internet traffic.

Accurate inference of human intent enables human-robot collaboration without constraining human control or causing conflicts between humans and robots. We present GUIDER (Global User Intent Dual-phase Estimation for Robots), a probabilistic framework that enables a robot to estimate the intent of human operators. GUIDER maintains two coupled belief layers, one tracking navigation goals and the other manipulation goals. In the Navigation phase, a Synergy Map blends controller velocity with an occupancy grid to rank interaction areas. Upon arrival at a goal, an autonomous multi-view scan builds a local 3D cloud. The Manipulation phase combines U2Net saliency, FastSAM instance saliency, and three geometric grasp-feasibility tests, with an end-effector kinematics-aware update rule that evolves object probabilities in real-time. GUIDER can recognize areas and objects of intent without predefined goals. We evaluated GUIDER on 25 trials (five participants x five task variants) in Isaac Sim, and compared it with two baselines, one for navigation and one for manipulation. Across the 25 trials, GUIDER achieved a median stability of 93-100% during navigation, compared with 60-100% for the BOIR baseline, with an improvement of 39.5% in a redirection scenario (T5). During manipulation, stability reached 94-100% (versus 69-100% for Trajectron), with a 31.4% difference in a redirection task (T3). In geometry-constrained trials (manipulation), GUIDER recognized the object intent three times earlier than Trajectron (median remaining time to confident prediction 23.6 s vs 7.8 s). These results validate our dual-phase framework and show improvements in intent inference in both phases of mobile manipulation tasks.

Nowadays, as AI-driven manufacturing becomes increasingly popular, the volume of data streams requiring real-time monitoring continues to grow. However, due to limited resources, it is impractical to place sensors at every location to detect unexpected shifts. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an optimal sensor placement strategy that enables partial observability of the system while detecting anomalies as quickly as possible. Numerous approaches have been proposed to address this challenge; however, most existing methods consider only variable correlations and neglect a crucial factor: Causality. Moreover, although a few techniques incorporate causal analysis, they rely on interventions-artificially creating anomalies-to identify causal effects, which is impractical and might lead to catastrophic losses. In this paper, we introduce a causality-informed deep Q-network (Causal DQ) approach for partially observable sensor placement in anomaly detection. By integrating causal information at each stage of Q-network training, our method achieves faster convergence and tighter theoretical error bounds. Furthermore, the trained causal-informed Q-network significantly reduces the detection time for anomalies under various settings, demonstrating its effectiveness for sensor placement in large-scale, real-world data streams. Beyond the current implementation, our technique's fundamental insights can be applied to various reinforcement learning problems, opening up new possibilities for real-world causality-informed machine learning methods in engineering applications.

Text classification plays a pivotal role in edge computing applications like industrial monitoring, health diagnostics, and smart assistants, where low latency and high accuracy are both key requirements. Generative classifiers, in particular, have been shown to exhibit robustness to out-of-distribution and noisy data, which is an extremely critical consideration for deployment in such real-time edge environments. However, deploying such models on edge devices faces computational and memory constraints. Post Training Quantization (PTQ) reduces model size and compute costs without retraining, making it ideal for edge deployment. In this work, we present a comprehensive comparative study of generative and discriminative Long Short Term Memory (LSTM)-based text classification models with PTQ using the Brevitas quantization library. We evaluate both types of classifier models across multiple bitwidths and assess their robustness under regular and noisy input conditions. We find that while discriminative classifiers remain robust, generative ones are more sensitive to bitwidth, calibration data used during PTQ, and input noise during quantized inference. We study the influence of class imbalance in calibration data for both types of classifiers, comparing scenarios with evenly and unevenly distributed class samples including their effect on weight adjustments and activation profiles during PTQ. Using test statistics derived from nonparametric hypothesis testing, we identify that using class imbalanced data during calibration introduces insufficient weight adaptation at lower bitwidths for generative LSTM classifiers, thereby leading to degraded performance. This study underscores the role of calibration data in PTQ and when generative classifiers succeed or fail under noise, aiding deployment in edge environments.

Accurately attributing user visits to specific Points of Interest (POIs) is a foundational task for mobility analytics, personalized services, marketing and urban planning. However, POI attribution remains challenging due to GPS inaccuracies, typically ranging from 2 to 20 meters in real-world settings, and the high spatial density of POIs in urban environments, where multiple venues can coexist within a small radius (e.g., over 50 POIs within a 100-meter radius in dense city centers). Relying on proximity is therefore often insufficient for determining which POI was actually visited. We introduce \textsf{POIFormer}, a novel Transformer-based framework for accurate and efficient POI attribution. Unlike prior approaches that rely on limited spatiotemporal, contextual, or behavioral features, \textsf{POIFormer} jointly models a rich set of signals, including spatial proximity, visit timing and duration, contextual features from POI semantics, and behavioral features from user mobility and aggregated crowd behavior patterns--using the Transformer's self-attention mechanism to jointly model complex interactions across these dimensions. By leveraging the Transformer to model a user's past and future visits (with the current visit masked) and incorporating crowd-level behavioral patterns through pre-computed KDEs, \textsf{POIFormer} enables accurate, efficient attribution in large, noisy mobility datasets. Its architecture supports generalization across diverse data sources and geographic contexts while avoiding reliance on hard-to-access or unavailable data layers, making it practical for real-world deployment. Extensive experiments on real-world mobility datasets demonstrate significant improvements over existing baselines, particularly in challenging real-world settings characterized by spatial noise and dense POI clustering.