The first two methods are related to mean field ideas known in Statistical Physics. The third approach is based on Bayesian online approach which was motivated by recent results in the Statistical Mechanics of Neural Networks. We present simulation results showing: 1. that the mean field Bayesian evidence may be used for hyperparameter tuning and 2. that the online approach may achieve a low training error fast. 1 Introduction Gaussian processes provide promising nonparametric Bayesian approaches to regression andclassification [2, 1].

We study a population decoding paradigm in which the maximum likelihood inferenceis based on an unfaithful decoding model (UMLI). This is usually the case for neural population decoding because the encoding process of the brain is not exactly known, or because a simplified decoding modelis preferred for saving computational cost. We consider an unfaithful decoding model which neglects the pairwise correlation between neuronal activities, and prove that UMLI is asymptotically efficient whenthe neuronal correlation is uniform or of limited-range. The performance of UMLI is compared with that of the maximum likelihood inference based on a faithful model and that of the center of mass decoding method.It turns out that UMLI has advantages of decreasing the computational complexity remarkablely and maintaining a high-level decoding accuracy at the same time. The effect of correlation on the decoding accuracy is also discussed.

The three-dimensional motion of humans is underdetermined when the observation is limited to a single camera, due to the inherent 3D ambiguity of2D video. We present a system that reconstructs the 3D motion of human subjects from single-camera video, relying on prior knowledge about human motion, learned from training data, to resolve those ambiguities. Afterinitialization in 2D, the tracking and 3D reconstruction is automatic; we show results for several video sequences. The results show the power of treating 3D body tracking as an inference problem.

Local "belief propagation" rules of the sort proposed by Pearl [15] are guaranteed to converge to the correct posterior probabilities in singly connected graphical models. Recently, a number of researchers have empirically demonstratedgood performance of "loopy belief propagation" using these same rules on graphs with loops. Perhaps the most dramatic instance is the near Shannon-limit performance of "Turbo codes", whose decoding algorithm is equivalent to loopy belief propagation. Except for the case of graphs with a single loop, there has been little theoretical understandingof the performance of loopy propagation. Here we analyze belief propagation in networks with arbitrary topologies when the nodes in the graph describe jointly Gaussian random variables.

This paper argues that two apparently distinct modes of generalizing concepts -abstracting rules and computing similarity to exemplars - should both be seen as special cases of a more general Bayesian learning framework. Bayesexplains the specific workings of these two modes - which rules are abstracted, how similarity is measured - as well as why generalization shouldappear rule-or similarity-based in different situations. This analysis also suggests why the rules/similarity distinction, even if not computationally fundamental, may still be useful at the algorithmic level as part of a principled approximation to fully Bayesian learning.

Zoubin Ghahramani and Matthew J. Beal Gatsby Computational Neuroscience Unit University College London 17 Queen Square, London WC1N 3AR, England {zoubin,m.beal}Ggatsby.ucl.ac.uk Abstract We present an algorithm that infers the model structure of a mixture offactor analysers using an efficient and deterministic variational approximationto full Bayesian integration over model parameters. Thisprocedure can automatically determine the optimal number of components and the local dimensionality of each component (Le. the number of factors in each factor analyser). Alternatively it can be used to infer posterior distributions over number of components and dimensionalities. Since all parameters are integrated out the method is not prone to overfitting. Using a stochastic procedure for adding components it is possible to perform thevariational optimisation incrementally and to avoid local maxima.

We propose a new Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm which is a generalization ofthe stochastic dynamics method. The algorithm performs exploration of the state space using its intrinsic geometric structure, facilitating efficientsampling of complex distributions. Applied to Bayesian learning in neural networks, our algorithm was found to perform at least as well as the best state-of-the-art method while consuming considerably less time. 1 Introduction

In recent years, Bayesian networks have become highly successful tool for diagnosis, analysis,and decision making in real-world domains. We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayes networks from data.

The support vector machine (SVM) is a state-of-the-art technique for regression and classification, combining excellent generalisation properties with a sparse kernel representation. However, it does suffer from a number of disadvantages, notably the absence of probabilistic outputs,the requirement to estimate a tradeoff parameter and the need to utilise'Mercer' kernel functions. In this paper we introduce the Relevance Vector Machine (RVM), a Bayesian treatment ofa generalised linear model of identical functional form to the SVM. The RVM suffers from none of the above disadvantages, and examples demonstrate that for comparable generalisation performance, theRVM requires dramatically fewer kernel functions.

The problem of reinforcement learning in a non-Markov environment is explored using a dynamic Bayesian network, where conditional independence assumptionsbetween random variables are compactly represented by network parameters. The parameters are learned online, and approximations areused to perform inference and to compute the optimal value function. The relative effects of inference and value function approximations onthe quality of the final policy are investigated, by learning to solve a moderately difficult driving task. The two value function approximations, linearand quadratic, were found to perform similarly, but the quadratic model was more sensitive to initialization. Both performed below thelevel of human performance on the task.