We use the same notations as in section 4.2 Denote ec as a one-hot row vector of the true label, we define the hypothesis set that genie is allowed3 to choose from as4 PΘ = pθ(y|x) = 1 2πσ2 exp 1 2σ2 y f(x>nθ) e>c We simulate the response of the pNML regret for two classes (C=2) and divide it by logC to have11 the regret bounded between 0 and 1. Figure 1 shows the regret behaviour for different p1 (the ERM12 probability assignment of class 1) as a function of x>g.13 For an ERM model that is certain on the prediction (p1 = 0.99 that is represented by the purple14 curve), a slight variation of x>g causes a large response of the regret comparing to p1 that equals15 0.55 and 0.85. Next, 20 we compute the correlation matrix of the training embeddings and perform an SVD decomposition. For the SVHN training set, most of the energy is located in the first 50 eigenvalues and then 24 there is a significant decrease of approximately 103. The same phenomenon is also seen in figure 2a 25 that shows the eigenvalues of ResNet-40 model.

Detecting out-of-distribution (OOD) samples is vital for developing machine learning based models for critical safety systems. Common approaches for OOD detection assume access to some OOD samples during training which may not be available in a real-life scenario. Instead, we utilize the predictive normalized maximum likelihood (pNML) learner, in which no assumptions are made on the tested input. We derive an explicit expression of the pNML and its generalization error, denoted as the regret, for a single layer neural network (NN). We show that this learner generalizes well when (i) the test vector resides in a subspace spanned by the eigenvectors associated with the large eigenvalues of the empirical correlation matrix of the training data, or (ii) the test sample is far from the decision boundary. Furthermore, we describe how to efficiently apply the derived pNML regret to any pretrained deep NN, by employing the explicit pNML for the last layer, followed by the softmax function. Applying the derived regret to deep NN requires neither additional tunable parameters nor extra data. We extensively evaluate our approach on 74 OOD detection benchmarks using DenseNet-100, ResNet-34, and WideResNet40 models trained with CIFAR-100, CIFAR-10, SVHN, and ImageNet-30 showing a significant improvement of up to 15.6% over recent leading methods.

Recently, there has been extensive research interest in training deep networks to denoise images without clean reference. However, the representative approaches such as Noise2Noise, Noise2Void, Stein's unbiased risk estimator (SURE), etc. seem to differ from one another and it is difficult to find the coherent mathematical structure. To address this, here we present a novel approach, called Noise2Score, which reveals a missing link in order to unite these seemingly different approaches. Specifically, we show that image denoising problems without clean images can be addressed by finding the mode of the posterior distribution and that the Tweedie's formula offers an explicit solution through the score function (i.e. the gradient of loglikelihood). Our method then uses the recent finding that the score function can be stably estimated from the noisy images using the amortized residual denoising autoencoder, the method of which is closely related to Noise2Noise or Nose2Void. Our Noise2Score approach is so universal that the same network training can be used to remove noises from images that are corrupted by any exponential family distributions and noise parameters. Using extensive experiments with Gaussian, Poisson, and Gamma noises, we show that Noise2Score significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art self-supervised denoising methods in the benchmark data set such as (C)BSD68, Set12, and Kodak, etc.

Bayesian models have many desirable properties, most notable is their ability to generalize from limited data and to properly estimate the uncertainty in their predictions. However, these benefits come at a steep computational cost as Bayesian inference, in most cases, is computationally intractable. One popular approach to alleviate this problem is using a Monte-Carlo estimation with an ensemble of models sampled from the posterior. However, this approach still comes at a significant computational cost, as one needs to store and run multiple models at test time. In this work, we investigate how to best distill an ensemble's predictions using an efficient model.

Graphs have been commonly used to represent complex data structures. In models dealing with graph-structured data, multivariate parameters may not only exhibit sparse patterns but have structured sparsity and smoothness in the sense that both zero and non-zero parameters tend to cluster together. We propose a new prior for high-dimensional parameters with graphical relations, referred to as the Treebased Low-rank Horseshoe (T-LoHo) model, that generalizes the popular univariate Bayesian horseshoe shrinkage prior to the multivariate setting to detect structured sparsity and smoothness simultaneously. The T-LoHo prior can be embedded in many high-dimensional hierarchical models. To illustrate its utility, we apply it to regularize a Bayesian high-dimensional regression problem where the regression coefficients are linked by a graph, so that the resulting clusters have flexible shapes and satisfy the cluster contiguity constraint with respect to the graph. We design an efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm that delivers full Bayesian inference with uncertainty measures for model parameters such as the number of clusters. We offer theoretical investigations of the clustering effects and posterior concentration results. Finally, we illustrate the performance of the model with simulation studies and a real data application for anomaly detection on a road network. The results indicate substantial improvements over other competing methods such as the sparse fused lasso.

We investigate a stochastic counterpart of majority votes over finite ensembles of classifiers, and study its generalization properties. While our approach holds for arbitrary distributions, we instantiate it with Dirichlet distributions: this allows for a closed-form and differentiable expression for the expected risk, which then turns the generalization bound into a tractable training objective. The resulting stochastic majority vote learning algorithm achieves state-of-the-art accuracy and benefits from (non-vacuous) tight generalization bounds, in a series of numerical experiments when compared to competing algorithms which also minimize PACBayes objectives - both with uninformed (data-independent) and informed (datadependent) priors.

We investigate the parameterized complexity of Bayesian Network Structure Learn-1 ing (BNSL), a classical problem that has received significant attention in empirical2 but also purely theoretical studies. We follow up on previous works that have3 analyzed the complexity of BNSL w.r.t. the so-called superstructure of the input.4 While known results imply that BNSL is unlikely to be fixed-parameter tractable5 even when parameterized by the size of a vertex cover in the superstructure, here we6 show that a different kind of parameterization--notably by the size of a feedback7 edge set--yields fixed-parameter tractability. We proceed by showing that this8 result can be strengthened to a localized version of the feedback edge set, and9 provide corresponding lower bounds that complement previous results to provide a10 complexity classification of BNSL w.r.t.