Standard algorithms in detection systems perform insufficiently when dealing with malware passed through obfuscation tools. We illustrate this studying in detail an open source metamorphic software, making use of a hybrid framework to obtain the relevant features from binaries. We then provide an improved alternative solution based on adversarial risk analysis which we illustrate describe with an example. KEYWORDS: Adversarial Risk Analysis, Malware Obfuscation, Cybersecurity 1 INTRODUCTION The digital era is bringing along new global threats among which cybersecurity related ones emerge as truly worrisome, see for example the evolution of the Global Risks Map from the World Economic Forum (2017, 2018, 2019). Indeed, the operation of critical cyber infrastructures relies on components which could be cyber attacked, both incidentally and intentionally, suffering major performance degradation, Rao et al. (2016).

Empirical research in Natural Language Processing (NLP) has adopted a narrow set of principles for assessing hypotheses, relying mainly on p-value computation, which suffers from several known issues. While alternative proposals have been well-debated and adopted in other fields, they remain rarely discussed or used within the NLP community. We address this gap by contrasting various hypothesis assessment techniques, especially those not commonly used in the field (such as evaluations based on Bayesian inference). Since these statistical techniques differ in the hypotheses they can support, we argue that practitioners should first decide their target hypothesis before choosing an assessment method. This is crucial because common fallacies, misconceptions, and misinterpretation surrounding hypothesis assessment methods often stem from a discrepancy between what one would like to claim versus what the method used actually assesses. Our survey reveals that these issues are omnipresent in the NLP research community. As a step forward, we provide best practices and guidelines tailored to NLP research, as well as an easy-to-use package called 'HyBayes' for Bayesian assessment of hypotheses, complementing existing tools.

This is indicated, among others, by several review and overview publications (Ching et al., 2018; Jiang et al., 2017; Litjens et al., 2017; Miotto, Wang, Wang, Jiang, & Dudley, 2017). In particular, the capabilities of end-to-end deep learning approaches on such supervised learning tasks are highly promising. For instance, vast advances have been reported in the literature regarding cancer diagnosis with deep neural networks (Hu et al., 2018). End-to-end deep learning refers to a trend involving deep (neural network) model architectures which are able to learn highly complex relationships between predictors and the target variable while having less parameters than traditional (more shallow) models with comparable performance (Goodfellow, Bengio, & Courville, 2016). In the training process, highly complex features are derived automatically by the learning algorithm (LeCun, Bengio, & Hinton, 2015). This framework contrasts the traditional pipeline of domain specific data preprocessing and handcrafted features in combination with simpler prediction models. Despite all the recent success of machine learning, there are still challenges regarding over-optimistic conclusions drawn from finite datasets which may to a large extend be attributed to the following two (broad) categories: 1. Study design and reporting: The most popular recommendation to split data for training, selection and evaluation is frequently employed in practice (Friedman, Hastie, & Tibshirani, 2009; Géron, 2017; Goodfellow et al., 2016; Japkowicz & Shah, 2011; Kuhn & Johnson, 2013; Zheng, 2015). In the ML community, the according datasets are commonly denoted as training, validation and test set.

The pioneering paper [Ito and Sagawa, 2013] analyzed the non-equilibrium statistical physics of a set of multiple interacting systems, S, whose joint discrete-time evolution is specified by a Bayesian network. The major result of [Ito and Sagawa, 2013] was an integral fluctuation theorem (IFT) governing the sum of two quantities: the entropy production (EP) of an arbitrary single v in S, and the transfer entropy from v to the other systems. Here I extend the analysis in [Ito and Sagawa, 2013]. I derive several detailed fluctuation theorems (DFTs), concerning arbitrary subsets of all the systems (including the full set). I also derive several associated IFTs, concerning an arbitrary subset of the systems, thereby extending the IFT in [Ito and Sagawa, 2013]. In addition I derive "conditional" DFTs and IFTs, involving conditional probability distributions rather than (as in conventional fluctuation theorems) unconditioned distributions. I then derive thermodynamic uncertainty relations relating the total EP of the Bayes net to the set of all the precisions of probability currents within the individual systems. I end with an example of that uncertainty relation.

Normative expert systems have not become commonplace because they have been difficult to build and use. Over the past decade, however, researchers have developed the influence diagram, a graphical representation of a decision maker's beliefs, alternatives, and preferences that serves as the knowledge base of a normative expert system. Most people who have seen the representation find it intuitive and easy to use. Consequently, the influence diagram has overcome significantly the barriers to constructing normative expert systems. Nevertheless, building influence diagrams is not practical for extremely large and complex domains. In this book, I address the difficulties associated with the construction of the probabilistic portion of an influence diagram, called a knowledge map, belief network, or Bayesian network. I introduce two representations that facilitate the generation of large knowledge maps. In particular, I introduce the similarity network, a tool for building the network structure of a knowledge map, and the partition, a tool for assessing the probabilities associated with a knowledge map. I then use these representations to build Pathfinder, a large normative expert system for the diagnosis of lymph-node diseases (the domain contains over 60 diseases and over 100 disease findings). In an early version of the system, I encoded the knowledge of the expert using an erroneous assumption that all disease findings were independent, given each disease. When the expert and I attempted to build a more accurate knowledge map for the domain that would capture the dependencies among the disease findings, we failed. Using a similarity network, however, we built the knowledge-map structure for the entire domain in approximately 40 hours. Furthermore, the partition representation reduced the number of probability assessments required by the expert from 75,000 to 14,000.

Outlier detection is a core task in data mining with a plethora of algorithms that have enjoyed wide scale usage. Existing algorithms are primarily focused on detection, that is the identification of outliers in a given dataset. In this paper we explore the relatively under-studied problem of the outlier explanation problem. Our goal is, given a dataset that is already divided into outliers and normal instances, explain what characterizes the outliers. We explore the novel direction of a semantic explanation that a domain expert or policy maker is able to understand. We formulate this as an optimization problem to find explanations that are both interpretable and pure. Through experiments on real-world data sets, we quantitatively show that our method can efficiently generate better explanations compared with rule-based learners.

Two commonly arising computational tasks in Bayesian learning are Optimization (Maximum A Posteriori estimation) and Sampling (from the posterior distribution). In the convex case these two problems are efficiently reducible to each other. Recent work (Ma et al. 2019) shows that in the non-convex case, sampling can sometimes be provably faster. We present a simpler and stronger separation. We then compare sampling and optimization in more detail and show that they are provably incomparable: there are families of continuous functions for which optimization is easy but sampling is NP-hard, and vice versa. Further, we show function families that exhibit a sharp phase transition in the computational complexity of sampling, as one varies the natural temperature parameter. Our results draw on a connection to analogous separations in the discrete setting which are well-studied.

Training of deep models for classification tasks is hindered by local minima problems and vanishing gradients, while unsupervised layer-wise pretraining does not exploit information from class labels. Here, we propose a new regularization technique, called diversifying regularization (DR), which applies a penalty on hidden units at any layer if they obtain similar features for different types of data. For generative models, DR is defined as divergence over the variational posteriori distributions and included in the maximum likelihood estimation as a prior. Thus, DR includes class label information for greedy pretraining of deep belief networks which result in a better weight initialization for fine-tuning methods. On the other hand, for discriminative training of deep neural networks, DR is defined as a distance over the features and included in the learning objective. With our experimental tests, we show that DR can help the backpropagation to cope with vanishing gradient problems and to provide faster convergence and smaller generalization errors.

Wessel Bruinsma ‡ wpb23@cam.ac.uk 1. Introduction A principled approach to prediction tasks is to choose a statistical model that explains the data. The choice of the model class is crucial and has to observe the bias-variance tradeoff, which motivates the need for principled approaches to selecting the best model class from a set of options. Whilst model selection can be done manually by trial and error, the process tends to consume considerable time and resources and be prone to human biases. Bayesian model selection (MacKay, 1992; Rasmussen and Ghahramani, 2001), treats the model class as a random variable and computes its posterior distribution. It offers a built-in complexity regulariser, commonly known as Bayesian Occams razor, which penalises models whose complexity is excessive or too modest.

In the last years, crowdsourcing is transforming the way classification training sets are obtained. Instead of relying on a single expert annotator, crowdsourcing shares the labelling effort among a large number of collaborators. For instance, this is being applied to the data acquired by the laureate Laser Interferometer Gravitational Waves Observatory (LIGO), in order to detect glitches which might hinder the identification of true gravitational-waves. The crowdsourcing scenario poses new challenging difficulties, as it deals with different opinions from a heterogeneous group of annotators with unknown degrees of expertise. Probabilistic methods, such as Gaussian Processes (GP), have proven successful in modeling this setting. However, GPs do not scale well to large data sets, which hampers their broad adoption in real practice (in particular at LIGO). This has led to the recent introduction of deep learning based crowdsourcing methods, which have become the state-of-the-art. However, the accurate uncertainty quantification of GPs has been partially sacrificed. This is an important aspect for astrophysicists in LIGO, since a glitch detection system should provide very accurate probability distributions of its predictions. In this work, we leverage the most popular sparse GP approximation to develop a novel GP based crowdsourcing method that factorizes into mini-batches. This makes it able to cope with previously-prohibitive data sets. The approach, which we refer to as Scalable Variational Gaussian Processes for Crowdsourcing (SVGPCR), brings back GP-based methods to the state-of-the-art, and excels at uncertainty quantification. SVGPCR is shown to outperform deep learning based methods and previous probabilistic approaches when applied to the LIGO data. Moreover, its behavior and main properties are carefully analyzed in a controlled experiment based on the MNIST data set.