In human-robot cooperation, the robot cooperates with the human to accomplish the task together. Existing approaches assume the human has a specific goal during the cooperation, and the robot infers and acts toward it. However, in real-world environments, a human usually only has a general goal (e.g., general direction or area in motion planning) at the beginning of the cooperation which needs to be clarified to a specific goal (e.g., an exact position) during cooperation. The specification process is interactive and dynamic, which depends on the environment and the behavior of the partners. The robot that does not consider the goal specification process may cause frustration to the human partner, elongate the time to come to an agreement, and compromise or fail team performance. We present Evolutionary Value Learning (EVL) approach which uses a State-based Multivariate Bayesian Inference method to model the dynamics of goal specification process in HRC, and an Evolutionary Value Updating method to actively enhance the process of goal specification and cooperation formation. This enables the robot to simultaneously help the human to specify the goal and learn a cooperative policy in a Reinforcement Learning manner. In experiments with real human subjects, the robot equipped with EVL outperforms existing methods with faster goal specification processes and better team performance.

The use of genetic variants as instrumental variables - an approach known as Mendelian randomization - is a popular epidemiological method for estimating the causal effect of an exposure (phenotype, biomarker, risk factor) on a disease or health-related outcome from observational data. Instrumental variables must satisfy strong, often untestable assumptions, which means that finding good genetic instruments among a large list of potential candidates is challenging. This difficulty is compounded by the fact that many genetic variants influence more than one phenotype through different causal pathways, a phenomenon called horizontal pleiotropy. This leads to errors not only in estimating the magnitude of the causal effect but also in inferring the direction of the putative causal link. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach called BayesMR that is a generalization of the Mendelian randomization technique in which we allow for pleiotropic effects and, crucially, for the possibility of reverse causation. The output of the method is a posterior distribution over the target causal effect, which provides an immediate and easily interpretable measure of the uncertainty in the estimation. More importantly, we use Bayesian model averaging to determine how much more likely the inferred direction is relative to the reverse direction.

Fitting regression models with many multivariate responses and covariates can be challenging, but such responses and covariates sometimes have tensor-variate structure. We extend the classical multivariate regression model to exploit such structure in two ways: first, we impose four types of low-rank tensor formats on the regression coefficients. Second, we model the errors using the tensor-variate normal distribution that imposes a Kronecker separable format on the covariance matrix. We obtain maximum likelihood estimators via block-relaxation algorithms and derive their asymptotic distributions. Our regression framework enables us to formulate tensor-variate analysis of variance (TANOVA) methodology. Application of our methodology in a one-way TANOVA layout enables us to identify cerebral regions significantly associated with the interaction of suicide attempters or non-attemptor ideators and positive-, negative- or death-connoting words. A separate application performs three-way TANOVA on the Labeled Faces in the Wild image database to distinguish facial characteristics related to ethnic origin, age group and gender.

The recent availability of huge, many-dimensional data sets, like those arising from genome-wide association studies (GWAS), provides many opportunities for strengthening causal inference. One popular approach is to utilize these many-dimensional measurements as instrumental variables (instruments) for improving the causal effect estimate between other pairs of variables. Unfortunately, searching for proper instruments in a many-dimensional set of candidates is a daunting task due to the intractable model space and the fact that we cannot directly test which of these candidates are valid, so most existing search methods either rely on overly stringent modeling assumptions or fail to capture the inherent model uncertainty in the selection process. We show that, as long as at least some of the candidates are (close to) valid, without knowing a priori which ones, they collectively still pose enough restrictions on the target interaction to obtain a reliable causal effect estimate. We propose a general and efficient causal inference algorithm that accounts for model uncertainty by performing Bayesian model averaging over the most promising many-dimensional instrumental variable models, while at the same time employing weaker assumptions regarding the data generating process. We showcase the efficiency, robustness and predictive performance of our algorithm through experimental results on both simulated and real-world data.

As a simple and efficient optimization method in deep learning, stochastic gradient descent (SGD) has attracted tremendous attention. In the vanishing learning rate regime, SGD is now relatively well understood, and the majority of theoretical approaches to SGD set their assumptions in the continuous-time limit. However, the continuous-time predictions are unlikely to reflect the experimental observations well because the practice often runs in the large learning rate regime, where the training is faster and the generalization of models are often better. In this paper, we propose to study the basic properties of SGD and its variants in the non-vanishing learning rate regime. The focus is on deriving exactly solvable results and relating them to experimental observations. The main contributions of this work are to derive the stable distribution for discrete-time SGD in a quadratic loss function with and without momentum. Examples of applications of the proposed theory considered in this work include the approximation error of variants of SGD, the effect of mini-batch noise, the escape rate from a sharp minimum, and and the stationary distribution of a few second order methods.

In the problem of learning a class ratio from unlabeled data, which we call CR learning, the training data is unlabeled, and only the ratios, or proportions, of examples receiving each label are given. The goal is to learn a hypothesis that predicts the proportions of labels on the distribution underlying the sample. This model of learning is applicable to a wide variety of settings, including predicting the number of votes for candidates in political elections from polls. In this paper, we formally define this class and resolve foundational questions regarding the computational complexity of CR learning and characterize its relationship to PAC learning. Among our results, we show, perhaps surprisingly, that for finite VC classes what can be efficiently CR learned is a strict subset of what can be learned efficiently in PAC, under standard complexity assumptions. We also show that there exist classes of functions whose CR learnability is independent of ZFC, the standard set theoretic axioms. This implies that CR learning cannot be easily characterized (like PAC by VC dimension).

High-order clustering aims to identify heterogeneous substructure in multiway dataset that arises commonly in neuroimaging, genomics, and social network studies. The non-convex and discontinuous nature of the problem poses significant challenges in both statistics and computation. In this paper, we propose a tensor block model and the computationally efficient methods, \emph{high-order Lloyd algorithm} (HLloyd) and \emph{high-order spectral clustering} (HSC), for high-order clustering in tensor block model. The convergence of the proposed procedure is established, and we show that our method achieves exact clustering under reasonable assumptions. We also give the complete characterization for the statistical-computational trade-off in high-order clustering based on three different signal-to-noise ratio regimes. Finally, we show the merits of the proposed procedures via extensive experiments on both synthetic and real datasets.

Level Set Estimation (LSE) is an important problem with applications in various fields such as material design, biotechnology, machine operational testing, etc. Existing techniques suffer from the scalability issue, that is, these methods do not work well with high dimensional inputs. This paper proposes novel methods to solve the high dimensional LSE problems using Bayesian Neural Networks. In particular, we consider two types of LSE problems: (1) \textit{explicit} LSE problem where the threshold level is a fixed user-specified value, and, (2) \textit{implicit} LSE problem where the threshold level is defined as a percentage of the (unknown) maximum of the objective function. For each problem, we derive the corresponding theoretic information based acquisition function to sample the data points so as to maximally increase the level set accuracy. Furthermore, we also analyse the theoretical time complexity of our proposed acquisition functions, and suggest a practical methodology to efficiently tune the network hyper-parameters to achieve high model accuracy. Numerical experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that our proposed method can achieve better results compared to existing state-of-the-art approaches.

Graphical modeling plays a key role in causal theory, allowing A key characteristic of an MEC is its size, i. e., the number to express complex causal phenomena in an elegant, of DAGs in the class. It indicates uncertainty of the causal mathematically sound way. One of the most popular graphical model inferred from observational data and it serves as an models are directed acyclic graphs (DAGs), which represent indicator for the performance of recovering true causal effects.

Maximum entropy (MAXENT) method has a large number of applications in theoretical and applied machine learning, since it provides a convenient non-parametric tool for estimating unknown probabilities. The method is a major contribution of statistical physics to probabilistic inference. However, a systematic approach towards its validity limits is currently missing. Here we study MAXENT in a Bayesian decision theory set-up, i.e. assuming that there exists a well-defined prior Dirichlet density for unknown probabilities, and that the average Kullback-Leibler (KL) distance can be employed for deciding on the quality and applicability of various estimators. These allow to evaluate the relevance of various MAXENT constraints, check its general applicability, and compare MAXENT with estimators having various degrees of dependence on the prior, viz. the regularized maximum likelihood (ML) and the Bayesian estimators. We show that MAXENT applies in sparse data regimes, but needs specific types of prior information. In particular, MAXENT can outperform the optimally regularized ML provided that there are prior rank correlations between the estimated random quantity and its probabilities.