Soil compaction is critical in construction engineering to ensure the stability of structures like road embankments and earth dams. Traditional methods for determining optimum moisture content (OMC) and maximum dry density (MDD) involve labor-intensive laboratory experiments, and empirical regression models have limited applicability and accuracy across diverse soil types. In recent years, artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) techniques have emerged as alternatives for predicting these compaction parameters. However, ML models often struggle with prediction accuracy and generalizability, particularly with heterogeneous datasets representing various soil types. This study proposes an automated machine learning (AutoML) approach to predict OMC and MDD. AutoML automates algorithm selection and hyperparameter optimization, potentially improving accuracy and scalability. Through extensive experimentation, the study found that the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) algorithm provided the best performance, achieving R-squared values of 80.4% for MDD and 89.1% for OMC on a separate dataset. These results demonstrate the effectiveness of AutoML in predicting compaction parameters across different soil types. The study also highlights the importance of heterogeneous datasets in improving the generalization and performance of ML models. Ultimately, this research contributes to more efficient and reliable construction practices by enhancing the prediction of soil compaction parameters.

Machine learning (ML) offers a powerful path toward discovering sustainable polymer materials, but progress has been limited by the lack of large, high-quality, and openly accessible polymer datasets. The Open Polymer Challenge (OPC) addresses this gap by releasing the first community-developed benchmark for polymer informatics, featuring a dataset with 10K polymers and 5 properties: thermal conductivity, radius of gyration, density, fractional free volume, and glass transition temperature. The challenge centers on multi-task polymer property prediction, a core step in virtual screening pipelines for materials discovery. Participants developed models under realistic constraints that include small data, label imbalance, and heterogeneous simulation sources, using techniques such as feature-based augmentation, transfer learning, self-supervised pretraining, and targeted ensemble strategies. The competition also revealed important lessons about data preparation, distribution shifts, and cross-group simulation consistency, informing best practices for future large-scale polymer datasets. The resulting models, analysis, and released data create a new foundation for molecular AI in polymer science and are expected to accelerate the development of sustainable and energy-efficient materials. Along with the competition, we release the test dataset at https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/alexliu99/neurips-open-polymer-prediction-2025-test-data. We also release the data generation pipeline at https://github.com/sobinalosious/ADEPT, which simulates more than 25 properties, including thermal conductivity, radius of gyration, and density.

Axis-aligned decision trees are fast and stable but struggle on datasets with rotated or interaction-dependent decision boundaries, where informative splits require linear combinations of features rather than single-feature thresholds. Oblique forests address this with per-node hyperplane splits, but at added computational cost and implementation complexity. We propose a simple alternative: JARF, Jacobian-Aligned Random Forests. Concretely, we first fit an axis-aligned forest to estimate class probabilities or regression outputs, compute finite-difference gradients of these predictions with respect to each feature, aggregate them into an expected Jacobian outer product that generalizes the expected gradient outer product (EGOP), and use it as a single global linear preconditioner for all inputs. This supervised preconditioner applies a single global rotation of the feature space, then hands the transformed data back to a standard axis-aligned forest, preserving off-the-shelf training pipelines while capturing oblique boundaries and feature interactions that would otherwise require many axis-aligned splits to approximate. The same construction applies to any model that provides gradients, though we focus on random forests and gradient-boosted trees in this work. On tabular classification and regression benchmarks, this preconditioning consistently improves axis-aligned forests and often matches or surpasses oblique baselines while improving training time. Our experimental results and theoretical analysis together indicate that supervised preconditioning can recover much of the accuracy of oblique forests while retaining the simplicity and robustness of axis-aligned trees.

New York City reports over one hundred thousand motor vehicle collisions each year, creating substantial injury and public health burden. We present RaX-Crash, a resource efficient and explainable small model pipeline for structured injury severity prediction on the official NYC Motor Vehicle Collisions dataset. RaX-Crash integrates three linked tables with tens of millions of records, builds a unified feature schema in partitioned storage, and trains compact tree based ensembles (Random Forest and XGBoost) on engineered tabular features, which are compared against locally deployed small language models (SLMs) prompted with textual summaries. On a temporally held out test set, XGBoost and Random Forest achieve accuracies of 0.7828 and 0.7794, clearly outperforming SLMs (0.594 and 0.496); class imbalance analysis shows that simple class weighting improves fatal recall with modest accuracy trade offs, and SHAP attribution highlights human vulnerability factors, timing, and location as dominant drivers of predicted severity. Overall, RaX-Crash indicates that interpretable small model ensembles remain strong baselines for city scale injury analytics, while hybrid pipelines that pair tabular predictors with SLM generated narratives improve communication without sacrificing scalability.

Diabetes is a serious worldwide health issue, and successful intervention depends on early detection. However, overlapping risk factors and data asymmetry make prediction difficult. To use extensive health survey data to create a machine learning framework for diabetes classification that is both accurate and comprehensible, to produce results that will aid in clinical decision-making. Using the BRFSS dataset, we assessed a number of supervised learning techniques. SMOTE and Tomek Links were used to correct class imbalance. To improve prediction performance, both individual models and ensemble techniques such as stacking were investigated. The 2015 BRFSS dataset, which includes roughly 253,680 records with 22 numerical features, is used in this study. Strong ROC-AUC performance of approximately 0.96 was attained by the individual models Random Forest, XGBoost, CatBoost, and LightGBM.The stacking ensemble with XGBoost and KNN yielded the best overall results with 94.82\% accuracy, ROC-AUC of 0.989, and PR-AUC of 0.991, indicating a favourable balance between recall and precision. In our study, we proposed and developed a React Native-based application with a Python Flask backend to support early diabetes prediction, providing users with an accessible and efficient health monitoring tool.

The determination of sample size in qualitative research has traditionally relied on the subjective and often ambiguous principle of data saturation, which can lead to inconsistencies and threaten methodological rigor. This study introduces a new, systematic model based on machine learning (ML) to make this process more objective. Utilizing a dataset derived from five fundamental qualitative research approaches - namely, Case Study, Grounded Theory, Phenomenology, Narrative Research, and Ethnographic Research - we developed an ensemble learning model. Ten critical parameters, including research scope, information power, and researcher competence, were evaluated using an ordinal scale and used as input features. After thorough preprocessing and outlier removal, multiple ML algorithms were trained and compared. The K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Gradient Boosting (GB), Random Forest (RF), XGBoost, and Decision Tree (DT) algorithms showed the highest explanatory power (Test R2 ~ 0.85), effectively modeling the complex, non-linear relationships involved in qualitative sampling decisions. Feature importance analysis confirmed the vital roles of research design type and information power, providing quantitative validation of key theoretical assumptions in qualitative methodology. The study concludes by proposing a conceptual framework for a web-based computational application designed to serve as a decision support system for qualitative researchers, journal reviewers, and thesis advisors. This model represents a significant step toward standardizing sample size justification, enhancing transparency, and strengthening the epistemological foundation of qualitative inquiry through evidence-based, systematic decision-making.

Decision making often occurs in the presence of incomplete information, leading to the under- or overestimation of risk. Leveraging the observable information to learn the complete information is called nowcasting. In practice, incomplete information is often a consequence of reporting or observation delays. In this paper, we propose an expectation-maximisation (EM) framework for nowcasting that uses machine learning techniques to model both the occurrence as well as the reporting process of events. We allow for the inclusion of covariate information specific to the occurrence and reporting periods as well as characteristics related to the entity for which events occurred. We demonstrate how the maximisation step and the information flow between EM iterations can be tailored to leverage the predictive power of neural networks and (extreme) gradient boosting machines (XGBoost). With simulation experiments, we show that we can effectively model both the occurrence and reporting of events when dealing with high-dimensional covariate information. In the presence of non-linear effects, we show that our methodology outperforms existing EM-based nowcasting frameworks that use generalised linear models in the maximisation step. Finally, we apply the framework to the reporting of Argentinian Covid-19 cases, where the XGBoost-based approach again is most performant.

Multi-task learning (MTL) has shown effectiveness in exploiting shared information across tasks to improve generalization. MTL assumes tasks share similarities that can improve performance. In addition, boosting algorithms have demonstrated exceptional performance across diverse learning problems, primarily due to their ability to focus on hard-to-learn instances and iteratively reduce residual errors. This makes them a promising approach for learning multi-task problems. However, real-world MTL scenarios often involve tasks that are not well-aligned (known as outlier or adversarial tasks), which do not share beneficial similarities with others and can, in fact, deteriorate the performance of the overall model. To overcome this challenge, we propose Robust-Multi-Task Gradient Boosting (R-MTGB), a novel boosting framework that explicitly models and adapts to task heterogeneity during training. R-MTGB structures the learning process into three sequential blocks: (1) learning shared patterns, (2) partitioning tasks into outliers and non-outliers with regularized parameters, and (3) fine-tuning task-specific predictors. This architecture enables R-MTGB to automatically detect and penalize outlier tasks while promoting effective knowledge transfer among related tasks. Our method integrates these mechanisms seamlessly within gradient boosting, allowing robust handling of noisy or adversarial tasks without sacrificing accuracy. Extensive experiments on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world datasets demonstrate that our approach successfully isolates outliers, transfers knowledge, and consistently reduces prediction errors for each task individually, and achieves overall performance gains across all tasks. These results highlight robustness, adaptability, and reliable convergence of R-MTGB in challenging MTL environments.

Predictions of fatalities from violent conflict on the PRIO-GRID-month (pgm) level are characterized by high levels of uncertainty, limiting their usefulness in practical applications. We discuss the two main sources of uncertainty for this prediction task, the nature of violent conflict and data limitations, embedding this in the wider literature on uncertainty quantification in machine learning. We develop a strategy to quantify uncertainty in conflict forecasting, shifting from traditional point predictions to full predictive distributions. Our approach compares and combines multiple tree-based classifiers and distributional regressors in a custom auto-ML setup, estimating distributions for each pgm individually. We also test the integration of regional models in spatial ensembles as a potential avenue to reduce uncertainty. The models are able to consistently outperform a suite of benchmarks derived from conflict history in predictions up to one year in advance, with performance driven by regions where conflict was observed. With our evaluation, we emphasize the need to understand how a metric behaves for a given prediction problem, in our case characterized by extremely high zero-inflatedness. While not resulting in better predictions, the integration of smaller models does not decrease performance for this prediction task, opening avenues to integrate data sources with less spatial coverage in the future.

Abstract--Tree-based ensemble methods consistently outperform single models on tabular classification tasks, yet the conditions under which ensembles provide clear advantages--and prevent overfitting despite using high-variance base learners--are not always well understood by practitioners. We study four real-world classification problems (Breast Cancer diagnosis, Heart Disease prediction, Pima Indians Diabetes, and Credit Card Fraud detection) comparing classical single models against nine ensemble methods using five-seed repeated stratified cross-validation with statistical significance testing. Our results reveal three distinct regimes: (i) On nearly linearly separable data (Breast Cancer), well-regularized linear models achieve 97% accuracy with <2% generalization gaps; ensembles match but do not substantially exceed this performance. We systematically quantify dataset complexity through linearity scores, feature correlation, class separability, and noise estimates, explaining why different data regimes favor different model families. Cross-validated train/test accuracy and generalization-gap plots provide simple visual diagnostics for practitioners to assess when ensemble complexity is warranted. Statistical testing confirms that ensemble gains are significant on nonlinear tasks (p < 0.01) but not on near-linear data (p > 0.15). The study provides actionable guidelines for ensemble model selection in high-stakes tabular applications, with full code and reproducible experiments publicly available. A model that almost perfectly fits its training data can still fail badly on new cases. This gap between training performance and real-world behaviour is the essence of overfitting, and it is particularly problematic in domains such as medical diagnosis and financial fraud detection, where mistakes are costly: missed tumours delay treatment, and undetected fraud translates directly into monetary loss.