Social networks exhibit a complex graph-like structure due to the uncertainty surrounding potential collaborations among participants. Machine learning algorithms possess generic outstanding performance in multiple real-world prediction tasks. However, whether machine learning algorithms outperform specific algorithms designed for graph link prediction remains unknown to us. To address this issue, the Adamic-Adar Index (AAI), Jaccard Coefficient (JC) and common neighbour centrality (CNC) as representatives of graph-specific algorithms were applied to predict potential collaborations, utilizing data from volunteer activities during the Covid-19 pandemic in Shenzhen city, along with the classical machine learning algorithms such as random forest, support vector machine, and gradient boosting as single predictors and components of ensemble learning. This paper introduces that the AAI algorithm outperformed the traditional JC and CNC, and other machine learning algorithms in analyzing graph node attributes for this task.

Due to their power and ease of use, tree-based machine learning models, such as random forests and gradient-boosted tree ensembles, have become very popular. To interpret them, local feature attributions based on marginal expectations, e.g. marginal (interventional) Shapley, Owen or Banzhaf values, may be employed. Such methods are true to the model and implementation invariant, i.e. dependent only on the input-output function of the model. We contrast this with the popular TreeSHAP algorithm by presenting two (statistically similar) decision trees that compute the exact same function for which the "path-dependent" TreeSHAP yields different rankings of features, whereas the marginal Shapley values coincide. Furthermore, we discuss how the internal structure of tree-based models may be leveraged to help with computing their marginal feature attributions according to a linear game value. One important observation is that these are simple (piecewise-constant) functions with respect to a certain grid partition of the input space determined by the trained model. Another crucial observation, showcased by experiments with XGBoost, LightGBM and CatBoost libraries, is that only a portion of all features appears in a tree from the ensemble. Thus, the complexity of computing marginal Shapley (or Owen or Banzhaf) feature attributions may be reduced. This remains valid for a broader class of game values which we shall axiomatically characterize. A prime example is the case of CatBoost models where the trees are oblivious (symmetric) and the number of features in each of them is no larger than the depth. We exploit the symmetry to derive an explicit formula, with improved complexity and only in terms of the internal model parameters, for marginal Shapley (and Banzhaf and Owen) values of CatBoost models. This results in a fast, accurate algorithm for estimating these feature attributions.

Logs are valuable information for oil and gas fields as they help to determine the lithology of the formations surrounding the borehole and the location and reserves of subsurface oil and gas reservoirs. However, important logs are often missing in horizontal or old wells, which poses a challenge in field applications. In this paper, we utilize data from the 2020 machine learning competition of the SPWLA, which aims to predict the missing compressional wave slowness and shear wave slowness logs using other logs in the same borehole. We employ the NGBoost algorithm to construct an Ensemble Learning model that can predicate the results as well as their uncertainty. Furthermore, we combine the SHAP method to investigate the interpretability of the machine learning model. We compare the performance of the NGBosst model with four other commonly used Ensemble Learning methods, including Random Forest, GBDT, XGBoost, LightGBM. The results show that the NGBoost model performs well in the testing set and can provide a probability distribution for the prediction results. In addition, the variance of the probability distribution of the predicted log can be used to justify the quality of the constructed log. Using the SHAP explainable machine learning model, we calculate the importance of each input log to the predicted results as well as the coupling relationship among input logs. Our findings reveal that the NGBoost model tends to provide greater slowness prediction results when the neutron porosity and gamma ray are large, which is consistent with the cognition of petrophysical models. Furthermore, the machine learning model can capture the influence of the changing borehole caliper on slowness, where the influence of borehole caliper on slowness is complex and not easy to establish a direct relationship. These findings are in line with the physical principle of borehole acoustics.

Lung cancer is a significant cause of mortality worldwide, emphasizing the importance of early detection for improved survival rates. In this study, we propose a machine learning (ML) tool trained on data from the PLCO Cancer Screening Trial and validated on the NLST to estimate the likelihood of lung cancer occurrence within five years. The study utilized two datasets, the PLCO (n=55,161) and NLST (n=48,595), consisting of comprehensive information on risk factors, clinical measurements, and outcomes related to lung cancer. Data preprocessing involved removing patients who were not current or former smokers and those who had died of causes unrelated to lung cancer. Additionally, a focus was placed on mitigating bias caused by censored data. Feature selection, hyper-parameter optimization, and model calibration were performed using XGBoost, an ensemble learning algorithm that combines gradient boosting and decision trees. The ML model was trained on the pre-processed PLCO dataset and tested on the NLST dataset. The model incorporated features such as age, gender, smoking history, medical diagnoses, and family history of lung cancer. The model was well-calibrated (Brier score=0.044). ROC-AUC was 82% on the PLCO dataset and 70% on the NLST dataset. PR-AUC was 29% and 11% respectively. When compared to the USPSTF guidelines for lung cancer screening, our model provided the same recall with a precision of 13.1% vs. 9.3% on the PLCO dataset and 3.2% vs. 3.1% on the NLST dataset. The developed ML tool provides a freely available web application for estimating the likelihood of developing lung cancer within five years. By utilizing risk factors and clinical data, individuals can assess their risk and make informed decisions regarding lung cancer screening. This research contributes to the efforts in early detection and prevention strategies, aiming to reduce lung cancer-related mortality rates.

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly pivotal in automating clinical decisions. Yet, a glaring oversight in prior research has been the lack of proper processing of Electronic Medical Record (EMR) data in the clinical context for errors and outliers. Addressing this oversight, we introduce an innovative projections-based method that seamlessly integrates clinical expertise as domain constraints, generating important meta-data that can be used in ML workflows. In particular, by using high-dimensional mixed-integer programs that capture physiological and biological constraints on patient vitals and lab values, we can harness the power of mathematical "projections" for the EMR data to correct patient data. Consequently, we measure the distance of corrected data from the constraints defining a healthy range of patient data, resulting in a unique predictive metric we term as "trust-scores". These scores provide insight into the patient's health status and significantly boost the performance of ML classifiers in real-life clinical settings. We validate the impact of our framework in the context of early detection of sepsis using ML. We show an AUROC of 0.865 and a precision of 0.922, that surpasses conventional ML models without such projections.

As the complexity of learning tasks surges, modern machine learning encounters a new constrained learning paradigm characterized by more intricate and data-driven function constraints. Prominent applications include Neyman-Pearson classification (NPC) and fairness classification, which entail specific risk constraints that render standard projection-based training algorithms unsuitable. Gradient boosting machines (GBMs) are among the most popular algorithms for supervised learning; however, they are generally limited to unconstrained settings. In this paper, we adapt the GBM for constrained learning tasks within the framework of Bregman proximal algorithms. We introduce a new Bregman primal-dual method with a global optimality guarantee when the learning objective and constraint functions are convex. In cases of nonconvex functions, we demonstrate how our algorithm remains effective under a Bregman proximal point framework. Distinct from existing constrained learning algorithms, ours possess a unique advantage in their ability to seamlessly integrate with publicly available GBM implementations such as XGBoost (Chen and Guestrin, 2016) and LightGBM (Ke et al., 2017), exclusively relying on their public interfaces. We provide substantial experimental evidence to showcase the effectiveness of the Bregman algorithm framework. While our primary focus is on NPC and fairness ML, our framework holds significant potential for a broader range of constrained learning applications. The source code is currently freely available at https://github.com/zhenweilin/ConstrainedGBM}{https://github.com/zhenweilin/ConstrainedGBM.

Boosting is one of the most successful ideas in machine learning, allowing one to "boost" the performance of a base learning algorithm with rather poor accuracy into a highly accurate classifier, with recent applications in adversarial training [1], reinforcement learning [5], and federated learning [27], among many others. The classic boosting algorithm, known as AdaBoost [8], achieves this by iteratively training classifers on the training data set. After each iteration, the data set is reweighed and a new classifier is trained using a weighted loss function.

The package implements Local Cascade Ensemble (LCE), a machine learning method that further enhances the prediction performance of the current state-of-the-art methods Random Forest and XGBoost. LCE combines their strengths and adopts a complementary diversification approach to obtain a better generalizing predictor. The package is compatible with scikit-learn, therefore it can interact with scikit-learn pipelines and model selection tools.

The Rash\=omon effect poses challenges for deriving reliable knowledge from machine learning models. This study examined the influence of sample size on explanations from models in a Rash\=omon set using SHAP. Experiments on 5 public datasets showed that explanations gradually converged as the sample size increased. Explanations from <128 samples exhibited high variability, limiting reliable knowledge extraction. However, agreement between models improved with more data, allowing for consensus. Bagging ensembles often had higher agreement. The results provide guidance on sufficient data to trust explanations. Variability at low samples suggests that conclusions may be unreliable without validation. Further work is needed with more model types, data domains, and explanation methods. Testing convergence in neural networks and with model-specific explanation methods would be impactful. The approaches explored here point towards principled techniques for eliciting knowledge from ambiguous models.

The accuracy of digital elevation models (DEMs) in urban areas is influenced by numerous factors including land cover and terrain irregularities. Moreover, building artifacts in global DEMs cause artificial blocking of surface flow pathways. This compromises their quality and adequacy for hydrological and environmental modelling in urban landscapes where precise and accurate terrain information is needed. In this study, the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) ensemble algorithm is adopted for enhancing the accuracy of two medium-resolution 30m DEMs over Cape Town, South Africa: Copernicus GLO-30 and ALOS World 3D (AW3D). XGBoost is a scalable, portable and versatile gradient boosting library that can solve many environmental modelling problems. The training datasets are comprised of eleven predictor variables including elevation, urban footprints, slope, aspect, surface roughness, topographic position index, terrain ruggedness index, terrain surface texture, vector roughness measure, forest cover and bare ground cover. The target variable (elevation error) was calculated with respect to highly accurate airborne LiDAR. After training and testing, the model was applied for correcting the DEMs at two implementation sites. The correction achieved significant accuracy gains which are competitive with other proposed methods. The root mean square error (RMSE) of Copernicus DEM improved by 46 to 53% while the RMSE of AW3D DEM improved by 72 to 73%. These results showcase the potential of gradient boosted trees for enhancing the quality of DEMs, and for improved hydrological modelling in urban catchments.