Non-parametric machine learning models, such as random forests and gradient boosted trees, are frequently used to estimate house prices due to their predictive accuracy, but such methods are often limited in their ability to quantify prediction uncertainty. Conformal Prediction (CP) is a model-agnostic framework for constructing confidence sets around machine learning prediction models with minimal assumptions. However, due to the spatial dependencies observed in house prices, direct application of CP leads to confidence sets that are not calibrated everywhere, i.e., too large of confidence sets in certain geographical regions and too small in others. We survey various approaches to adjust the CP confidence set to account for this and demonstrate their performance on a data set from the housing market in Oslo, Norway. Our findings indicate that calibrating the confidence sets on a \textit{locally weighted} version of the non-conformity scores makes the coverage more consistently calibrated in different geographical regions. We also perform a simulation study on synthetically generated sale prices to empirically explore the performance of CP on housing market data under idealized conditions with known data-generating mechanisms.

Detecting Parkinson's Disease in its early stages using EEG data presents a significant challenge. This paper introduces a novel approach, representing EEG data as a 15-variate series of bandpower and peak frequency values/coefficients. The hypothesis is that this representation captures essential information from the noisy EEG signal, improving disease detection. Statistical features extracted from this representation are utilised as input for interpretable machine learning models, specifically Decision Tree and AdaBoost classifiers. Our classification pipeline is deployed within our proposed framework which enables high-importance data types and brain regions for classification to be identified. Interestingly, our analysis reveals that while there is no significant regional importance, the N1 sleep data type exhibits statistically significant predictive power (p < 0.01) for early-stage Parkinson's Disease classification. AdaBoost classifiers trained on the N1 data type consistently outperform baseline models, achieving over 80% accuracy and recall. Our classification pipeline statistically significantly outperforms baseline models indicating that the model has acquired useful information. Paired with the interpretability (ability to view feature importance's) of our pipeline this enables us to generate meaningful insights into the classification of early stage Parkinson's with our N1 models. In Future, these models could be deployed in the real world - the results presented in this paper indicate that more than 3 in 4 early-stage Parkinson's cases would be captured with our pipeline.

Gradient boosting performs exceptionally in most prediction problems and scales well to large datasets. In this paper we prove that a ``lassoed'' gradient boosted tree algorithm with early stopping achieves faster than $n^{-1/4}$ L2 convergence in the large nonparametric space of cadlag functions of bounded sectional variation. This rate is remarkable because it does not depend on the dimension, sparsity, or smoothness. We use simulation and real data to confirm our theory and demonstrate empirical performance and scalability on par with standard boosting. Our convergence proofs are based on a novel, general theorem on early stopping with empirical loss minimizers of nested Donsker classes.

In recent years there has been a dramatic increase in the number of malware attacks that use encrypted HTTP traffic for self-propagation or communication. Antivirus software and firewalls typically will not have access to encryption keys, and therefore direct detection of malicious encrypted data is unlikely to succeed. However, previous work has shown that traffic analysis can provide indications of malicious intent, even in cases where the underlying data remains encrypted. In this paper, we apply three machine learning techniques to the problem of distinguishing malicious encrypted HTTP traffic from benign encrypted traffic and obtain results comparable to previous work. We then consider the problem of feature analysis in some detail. Previous work has often relied on human expertise to determine the most useful and informative features in this problem domain. We demonstrate that such feature-related information can be obtained directly from machine learning models themselves. We argue that such a machine learning based approach to feature analysis is preferable, as it is more reliable, and we can, for example, uncover relatively unintuitive interactions between features.

Uplift modeling refers to the set of machine learning techniques that a manager may use to estimate customer uplift, that is, the net effect of an action on some customer outcome. By identifying the subset of customers for whom a treatment will have the greatest effect, uplift models assist decision-makers in optimizing resource allocations and maximizing overall returns. Accurately estimating customer uplift poses practical challenges, as it requires assessing the difference between two mutually exclusive outcomes for each individual. In this paper, we propose two innovative adaptations of the well-established Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) algorithm, which learn the causal effect in a sequential way and overcome the counter-factual nature. Both approaches innovate existing techniques in terms of ensemble learning method and learning objectives, respectively. Experiments on large-scale datasets demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed methods, which often yielding remarkable improvements over base models. To facilitate the application, we develop the UTBoost, an end-to-end tree boosting system specifically designed for uplift modeling. The package is open source and has been optimized for training speed to meet the needs of real industrial applications.

The past decade has witnessed significant advancements in quantum hardware, encompassing improvements in speed, qubit quantity, and quantum volume-a metric defining the maximum size of a quantum circuit effectively implementable on near-term quantum devices. This progress has led to a surge in Quantum Machine Learning (QML) applications on real hardware, aiming to achieve quantum advantage over classical approaches. This survey focuses on selected supervised and unsupervised learning applications executed on quantum hardware, specifically tailored for real-world scenarios. The exploration includes a thorough analysis of current QML implementation limitations on quantum hardware, covering techniques like encoding, ansatz structure, error mitigation, and gradient methods to address these challenges. Furthermore, the survey evaluates the performance of QML implementations in comparison to classical counterparts. In conclusion, we discuss existing bottlenecks related to applying QML on real quantum devices and propose potential solutions to overcome these challenges in the future.

The cotton industry in the United States is committed to sustainable production practices that minimize water, land, and energy use while improving soil health and cotton output. Climate-smart agricultural technologies are being developed to boost yields while decreasing operating expenses. Crop yield prediction, on the other hand, is difficult because of the complex and nonlinear impacts of cultivar, soil type, management, pest and disease, climate, and weather patterns on crops. To solve this issue, we employ machine learning (ML) to forecast production while considering climate change, soil diversity, cultivar, and inorganic nitrogen levels. From the 1980s to the 1990s, field data were gathered across the southern cotton belt of the United States. To capture the most current effects of climate change over the previous six years, a second data source was produced using the process-based crop model, GOSSYM. We concentrated our efforts on three distinct areas inside each of the three southern states: Texas, Mississippi, and Georgia. To simplify the amount of computations, accumulated heat units (AHU) for each set of experimental data were employed as an analogy to use time-series weather data. The Random Forest Regressor yielded a 97.75% accuracy rate, with a root mean square error of 55.05 kg/ha and an R2 of around 0.98. These findings demonstrate how an ML technique may be developed and applied as a reliable and easy-to-use model to support the cotton climate-smart initiative.

Understanding electric vehicle (EV) charging on the distribution network is key to effective EV charging management and aiding decarbonization across the energy and transport sectors. Advanced metering infrastructure has allowed distribution system operators and utility companies to collect high-resolution load data from their networks. These advancements enable the non-intrusive load monitoring (NILM) technique to detect EV charging using load measurement data. While existing studies primarily focused on NILM for EV charging detection in individual households, there is a research gap on EV charging detection at the feeder level, presenting unique challenges due to the combined load measurement from multiple households. In this paper, we develop a novel and effective approach for EV detection at the feeder level, involving sliding-window feature extraction and classical machine learning techniques, specifically models like XGBoost and Random Forest. Our developed method offers a lightweight and efficient solution, capable of quick training. Moreover, our developed method is versatile, supporting both offline and online EV charging detection. Our experimental results demonstrate high-accuracy EV charging detection at the feeder level, achieving an F-Score of 98.88% in offline detection and 93.01% in online detection.

Additive friction stir deposition (AFSD) is a novel solid-state additive manufacturing technique that circumvents issues of porosity, cracking, and properties anisotropy that plague traditional powder bed fusion and directed energy deposition approaches. However, correlations between process parameters, thermal profiles, and resulting microstructure in AFSD remain poorly understood. This hinders process optimization for properties. This work employs a framework combining supervised machine learning (SML) and physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) to predict peak temperature distribution in AFSD from process parameters. Eight regression algorithms were implemented for SML modeling, while four PINNs leveraged governing equations for transport, wave propagation, heat transfer, and quantum mechanics. Across multiple statistical measures, ensemble techniques like gradient boosting proved superior for SML, with lowest MSE of 165.78. The integrated ML approach was also applied to classify deposition quality from process factors, with logistic regression delivering robust accuracy. By fusing data-driven learning and fundamental physics, this dual methodology provides comprehensive insights into tailoring microstructure through thermal management in AFSD. The work demonstrates the power of bridging statistical and physics-based modeling for elucidating AM process-property relationships.

Understanding whether a property is priced fairly hinders buyers and sellers since they usually do not have an objective viewpoint of the price distribution for the overall market of their interest. Drawing from data collected of all possible available properties for rent in Manhattan as of September 2023, this paper aims to strengthen our understanding of model residuals; specifically on machine learning models which generalize for a majority of the distribution of a well-proportioned dataset. Most models generally perceive deviations from predicted values as mere inaccuracies, however this paper proposes a different vantage point: when generalizing to at least 75\% of the data-set, the remaining deviations reveal significant insights. To harness these insights, we introduce the Price Anomaly Score (PAS), a metric capable of capturing boundaries between irregularly predicted prices. By combining relative pricing discrepancies with statistical significance, the Price Anomaly Score (PAS) offers a multifaceted view of rental valuations. This metric allows experts to identify overpriced or underpriced properties within a dataset by aggregating PAS values, then fine-tuning upper and lower boundaries to any threshold to set indicators of choice.