This paper introduces the RUMBoost model, a novel discrete choice modelling approach that combines the interpretability and behavioural robustness of Random Utility Models (RUMs) with the generalisation and predictive ability of deep learning methods. We obtain the full functional form of non-linear utility specifications by replacing each linear parameter in the utility functions of a RUM with an ensemble of gradient boosted regression trees. This enables piece-wise constant utility values to be imputed for all alternatives directly from the data for any possible combination of input variables. We introduce additional constraints on the ensembles to ensure three crucial features of the utility specifications: (i) dependency of the utilities of each alternative on only the attributes of that alternative, (ii) monotonicity of marginal utilities, and (iii) an intrinsically interpretable functional form, where the exact response of the model is known throughout the entire input space. Furthermore, we introduce an optimisation-based smoothing technique that replaces the piece-wise constant utility values of alternative attributes with monotonic piece-wise cubic splines to identify non-linear parameters with defined gradient. We demonstrate the potential of the RUMBoost model compared to various ML and Random Utility benchmark models for revealed preference mode choice data from London. The results highlight the great predictive performance and the direct interpretability of our proposed approach. Furthermore, the smoothed attribute utility functions allow for the calculation of various behavioural indicators and marginal utilities. Finally, we demonstrate the flexibility of our methodology by showing how the RUMBoost model can be extended to complex model specifications, including attribute interactions, correlation within alternative error terms and heterogeneity within the population.

This study provides evidence that personality can be reliably predicted from activity data collected through mobile phone sensors. Employing a set of well informed indicators calculable from accelerometer records and movement patterns, we were able to predict users' personality up to a 0.78 F1 score on a two class problem. Given the fast growing number of data collected from mobile phones, our novel personality indicators open the door to exciting avenues for future research in social sciences. Our results reveal distinct behavioral patterns that proved to be differentially predictive of big five personality traits. They potentially enable cost effective, questionnaire free investigation of personality related questions at an unprecedented scale. We show how a combination of rich behavioral data obtained with smartphone sensing and the use of machine learning techniques can help to advance personality research and can inform both practitioners and researchers about the different behavioral patterns of personality. These findings have practical implications for organizations harnessing mobile sensor data for personality assessment, guiding the refinement of more precise and efficient prediction models in the future.

One of the common hazards and issues in meteorology and agriculture is the problem of frost, chilling or freezing. This event occurs when the minimum ambient temperature falls below a certain value. This phenomenon causes a lot of damage to the country, especially Fars province. Solving this problem requires that, in addition to predicting the minimum temperature, we can provide enough time to implement the necessary measures. Empirical methods have been provided by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), which can predict the minimum temperature, but not in time. In addition to this, we can use machine learning methods to model the minimum temperature. In this study, we have used three methods Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) as deep learning methods, and Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). A customized loss function designed for methods based on deep learning, which can be effective in reducing prediction errors. With methods based on deep learning models, not only do we observe a reduction in RMSE error compared to empirical methods but also have more time to predict minimum temperature. Thus, we can model the minimum temperature for the next 24 hours by having the current 24 hours. With the gradient boosting model (XGBoost) we can keep the prediction time as deep learning and RMSE error reduced. Finally, we experimentally concluded that machine learning methods work better than empirical methods and XGBoost model can have better performance in this problem among other implemented.

This systematic review focuses on analyzing the use of machine learning techniques for identifying and quantifying analytes in various electrochemical applications, presenting the available applications in the literature. Machine learning is a tool that can facilitate the analysis and enhance the understanding of processes involving various analytes. In electrochemical biosensors, it increases the precision of medical diagnostics, improving the identification of biomarkers and pathogens with high reliability. It can be effectively used for the classification of complex chemical products; in environmental monitoring, using low-cost sensors; in portable devices and wearable systems; among others. Currently, the analysis of some analytes is still performed manually, requiring the expertise of a specialist in the field and thus hindering the generalization of results. In light of the advancements in artificial intelligence today, this work proposes to carry out a systematic review of the literature on the applications of artificial intelligence techniques. A set of articles has been identified that address electrochemical problems using machine learning techniques, more specifically, supervised learning.

This chapter is a preprint from our book by , focusing on leveraging machine learning (ML) in chemical and polyolefin manufacturing optimization. It's crafted for both novices and seasoned professionals keen on the latest ML applications in chemical processes. We trace the evolution of AI and ML in chemical industries, delineate core ML components, and provide resources for ML beginners. A detailed discussion on various ML methods is presented, covering regression, classification, and unsupervised learning techniques, with performance metrics and examples. Ensemble methods, deep learning networks, including MLP, DNNs, RNNs, CNNs, and transformers, are explored for their growing role in chemical applications. Practical workshops guide readers through predictive modeling using advanced ML algorithms. The chapter culminates with insights into science-guided ML, advocating for a hybrid approach that enhances model accuracy. The extensive bibliography offers resources for further research and practical implementation. This chapter aims to be a thorough primer on ML's practical application in chemical engineering, particularly for polyolefin production, and sets the stage for continued learning in subsequent chapters. Please cite the original work [169,170] when referencing.

Dealing with missing data is an important problem in statistical analysis that is often addressed with imputation procedures. The performance and validity of such methods are of great importance for their application in empirical studies. While the prevailing method of Multiple Imputation by Chained Equations (MICE) with Predictive Mean Matching (PMM) is considered standard in the social science literature, the increase in complex datasets may require more advanced approaches based on machine learning. In particular, tree-based imputation methods have emerged as very competitive approaches. However, the performance and validity are not completely understood, particularly compared to the standard MICE PMM. This is especially true for inference in linear models. In this study, we investigate the impact of various imputation methods on coefficient estimation, Type I error, and power, to gain insights that can help empirical researchers deal with missingness more effectively. We explore MICE PMM alongside different tree-based methods, such as MICE with Random Forest (RF), Chained Random Forests with and without PMM (missRanger), and Extreme Gradient Boosting (MIXGBoost), conducting a realistic simulation study using the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) as the original data source. Our results reveal that Random Forest-based imputations, especially MICE RF and missRanger with PMM, consistently perform better in most scenarios. Standard MICE PMM shows partially increased bias and overly conservative test decisions, particularly with non-true zero coefficients. Our results thus underscore the potential advantages of tree-based imputation methods, albeit with a caveat that all methods perform worse with an increased missingness, particularly missRanger.

Data stream forecasts are essential inputs for decision making at digital platforms. Machine learning algorithms are appealing candidates to produce such forecasts. Yet, digital platforms require a large-scale forecast framework that can flexibly respond to sudden performance drops. Re-training ML algorithms at the same speed as new data batches enter is usually computationally too costly. On the other hand, infrequent re-training requires specifying the re-training frequency and typically comes with a severe cost of forecast deterioration. To ensure accurate and stable forecasts, we propose a simple data-driven monitoring procedure to answer the question when the ML algorithm should be re-trained. Instead of investigating instability of the data streams, we test if the incoming streaming forecast loss batch differs from a well-defined reference batch. Using a novel dataset constituting 15-min frequency data streams from an on-demand logistics platform operating in London, we apply the monitoring procedure to popular ML algorithms including random forest, XGBoost and lasso. We show that monitor-based re-training produces accurate forecasts compared to viable benchmarks while preserving computational feasibility. Moreover, the choice of monitoring procedure is more important than the choice of ML algorithm, thereby permitting practitioners to combine the proposed monitoring procedure with one's favorite forecasting algorithm.

This study aimed to analyze brain activity during various STEM activities, exploring the feasibility of classifying between different tasks. EEG brain data from twenty subjects engaged in five cognitive tasks were collected and segmented into 4-second clips. Power spectral densities of brain frequency waves were then analyzed. Testing different k-intervals with XGBoost, Random Forest, and Bagging Classifier revealed that Random Forest performed best, achieving a testing accuracy of 91.07% at an interval size of two. When utilizing all four EEG channels, cognitive flexibility was most recognizable. Task-specific classification accuracy showed the right frontal lobe excelled in mathematical processing and planning, the left frontal lobe in cognitive flexibility and mental flexibility, and the left temporoparietal lobe in connections. Notably, numerous connections between frontal and temporoparietal lobes were observed during STEM activities. This study contributes to a deeper understanding of implementing machine learning in analyzing brain activity and sheds light on the brain's mechanisms.

We present first results from the use of XGBoost, a highly effective machine learning (ML) method, within the Bristol Betting Exchange (BBE), an open-source agent-based model (ABM) designed to simulate a contemporary sports-betting exchange with in-play betting during track-racing events such as horse races. We use the BBE ABM and its array of minimally-simple bettor-agents as a synthetic data generator which feeds into our XGBoost ML system, with the intention that XGBoost discovers profitable dynamic betting strategies by learning from the more profitable bets made by the BBE bettor-agents. After this XGBoost training, which results in one or more decision trees, a bettor-agent with a betting strategy determined by the XGBoost-learned decision tree(s) is added to the BBE ABM and made to bet on a sequence of races under various conditions and betting-market scenarios, with profitability serving as the primary metric of comparison and evaluation. Our initial findings presented here show that XGBoost trained in this way can indeed learn profitable betting strategies, and can generalise to learn strategies that outperform each of the set of strategies used for creation of the training data. To foster further research and enhancements, the complete version of our extended BBE, including the XGBoost integration, has been made freely available as an open-source release on GitHub.

Urban mobility is on the cusp of transformation with the emergence of shared, connected, and cooperative automated vehicles. Yet, for them to be accepted by customers, trust in their punctuality is vital. Many pilot initiatives operate without a fixed schedule, thus enhancing the importance of reliable arrival time (AT) predictions. This study presents an AT prediction system for autonomous shuttles, utilizing separate models for dwell and running time predictions, validated on real-world data from five cities. Alongside established methods such as XGBoost, we explore the benefits of integrating spatial data using graph neural networks (GNN). To accurately handle the case of a shuttle bypassing a stop, we propose a hierarchical model combining a random forest classifier and a GNN. The results for the final AT prediction are promising, showing low errors even when predicting several stops ahead. Yet, no single model emerges as universally superior, and we provide insights into the characteristics of pilot sites that influence the model selection process. Finally, we identify dwell time prediction as the key determinant in overall AT prediction accuracy when autonomous shuttles are deployed in low-traffic areas or under regulatory speed limits. This research provides insights into the current state of autonomous public transport prediction models and paves the way for more data-informed decision-making as the field advances.