Gradient Boost Decision Trees (GBDT) is a powerful additive model based on tree ensembles. Its nature makes GBDT a black-box model even though there are multiple explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) models obtaining information by reinterpreting the model globally and locally. Each tree of the ensemble is a transparent model itself but the final outcome is the result of a sum of these trees and it is not easy to clarify. In this paper, a feature contribution method for GBDT is developed. The proposed method takes advantage of the GBDT architecture to calculate the contribution of each feature using the residue of each node. This algorithm allows to calculate the sequence of node decisions given a prediction. Theoretical proofs and multiple experiments have been carried out to demonstrate the performance of our method which is not only a local explicability model for the GBDT algorithm but also a unique option that reflects GBDTs internal behavior. The proposal is aligned to the contribution of characteristics having impact in some artificial intelligence problems such as ethical analysis of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and comply with the new European laws such as the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) about the right to explain and nondiscrimination.

Estimating the overall user experience (UX) on a device is a common challenge faced by manufacturers. Today, device makers primarily rely on microbenchmark scores, such as Geekbench, that stress test specific hardware components, such as CPU or RAM, but do not satisfactorily capture consumer workloads. System designers often rely on domain-specific heuristics and extensive testing of prototypes to reach a desired UX goal, and yet there is often a mismatch between the manufacturers' performance claims and the consumers' experience. We present our initial results on predicting real-life experience on laptops from their hardware specifications. We target web applications that run on Chromebooks (ChromeOS laptops) for a simple and fair aggregation of experience across applications and workloads. On 54 laptops, we track 9 UX metrics on common end-user workloads: web browsing, video playback and audio/video calls. We focus on a subset of high-level metrics exposed by the Chrome browser, that are part of the Web Vitals initiative for judging the UX on web applications. With a dataset of 100K UX data points, we train gradient boosted regression trees that predict the metric values from device specifications. Across our 9 metrics, we note a mean $R^2$ score (goodness-of-fit on our dataset) of 97.8% and a mean MAAPE (percentage error in prediction on unseen data) of 10.1%.

In this paper, we present "Graph Feature Preprocessor", a software library for detecting typical money laundering and fraud patterns in financial transaction graphs in real time. These patterns are used to produce a rich set of transaction features for downstream machine learning training and inference tasks such as money laundering detection. We show that our enriched transaction features dramatically improve the prediction accuracy of gradient-boosting-based machine learning models. Our library exploits multicore parallelism, maintains a dynamic in-memory graph, and efficiently mines subgraph patterns in the incoming transaction stream, which enables it to be operated in a streaming manner. We evaluate our library using highly-imbalanced synthetic anti-money laundering (AML) and real-life Ethereum phishing datasets. In these datasets, the proportion of illicit transactions is very small, which makes the learning process challenging. Our solution, which combines our Graph Feature Preprocessor and gradient-boosting-based machine learning models, is able to detect these illicit transactions with higher minority-class F1 scores than standard graph neural networks. In addition, the end-to-end throughput rate of our solution executed on a multicore CPU outperforms the graph neural network baselines executed on a powerful V100 GPU. Overall, the combination of high accuracy, a high throughput rate, and low latency of our solution demonstrates the practical value of our library in real-world applications. Graph Feature Preprocessor has been integrated into IBM mainframe software products, namely "IBM Cloud Pak for Data on Z" and "AI Toolkit for IBM Z and LinuxONE".

Tree ensembles are one of the most widely used model classes. However, these models are susceptible to adversarial examples, i.e., slightly perturbed examples that elicit a misprediction. There has been significant research on designing approaches to construct such examples for tree ensembles. But this is a computationally challenging problem that often must be solved a large number of times (e.g., for all examples in a training set). This is compounded by the fact that current approaches attempt to find such examples from scratch. In contrast, we exploit the fact that multiple similar problems are being solved. Specifically, our approach exploits the insight that adversarial examples for tree ensembles tend to perturb a consistent but relatively small set of features. We show that we can quickly identify this set of features and use this knowledge to speedup constructing adversarial examples.

This study is based on the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) dataset and aims to explore early detection and disease progression in Alzheimer's disease (AD). We employ innovative data preprocessing strategies, including the use of the random forest algorithm to fill missing data and the handling of outliers and invalid data, thereby fully mining and utilizing these limited data resources. Through Spearman correlation coefficient analysis, we identify some features strongly correlated with AD diagnosis. We build and test three machine learning models using these features: random forest, XGBoost, and support vector machine (SVM). Among them, the XGBoost model performs the best in terms of diagnostic performance, achieving an accuracy of 91%. Overall, this study successfully overcomes the challenge of missing data and provides valuable insights into early detection of Alzheimer's disease, demonstrating its unique research value and practical significance.

The US Census Bureau has collected two rounds of experimental data from the Commodity Flow Survey, providing shipment-level characteristics of nationwide commodity movements, published in 2012 (i.e., Public Use Microdata) and in 2017 (i.e., Public Use File). With this information, data-driven methods have become increasingly valuable for understanding detailed patterns in freight logistics. In this study, we used the 2017 Commodity Flow Survey Public Use File data set to explore building a high-performance freight mode choice model, considering three main improvements: (1) constructing local models for each separate commodity/industry category; (2) extracting useful geographical features, particularly the derived distance of each freight mode between origin/destination zones; and (3) applying additional ensemble learning methods such as stacking or voting to combine results from local and unified models for improved performance. The proposed method achieved over 92% accuracy without incorporating external information, an over 19% increase compared to directly fitting Random Forests models over 10,000 samples. Furthermore, SHAP (Shapely Additive Explanations) values were computed to explain the outputs and major patterns obtained from the proposed model. The model framework could enhance the performance and interpretability of existing freight mode choice models.

This study presents the application of generative deep learning techniques to evaluate marine fog visibility nowcasting using the FATIMA (Fog and turbulence interactions in the marine atmosphere) campaign observations collected during July 2022 in the North Atlantic in the Grand Banks area and vicinity of Sable Island (SI), northeast of Canada. The measurements were collected using the Vaisala Forward Scatter Sensor model FD70 and Weather Transmitter model WXT50, and Gill R3A ultrasonic anemometer mounted on the Research Vessel Atlantic Condor. To perform nowcasting, the time series of fog visibility (Vis), wind speed, dew point depression, and relative humidity with respect to water were preprocessed to have lagged time step features. Generative nowcasting of Vis time series for lead times of 30 and 60 minutes were performed using conditional generative adversarial networks (cGAN) regression at visibility thresholds of Vis < 1 km and < 10 km. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) was used as a baseline method for comparison against cGAN. At the 30 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with cGAN at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.151 km) and with XGBoost at Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 2.821 km). At the 60 min lead time, Vis was best predicted with XGBoost at Vis < 1 km (RMSE = 0.167 km) and Vis < 10 km (RMSE = 3.508 km), but the cGAN RMSE was similar to XGBoost. Despite nowcasting Vis at 30 min being quite difficult, the ability of the cGAN model to track the variation in Vis at 1 km suggests that there is potential for generative analysis of marine fog visibility using observational meteorological parameters.

Several methods have been proposed for correcting the elevation bias in digital elevation models (DEMs) for example, linear regression. Nowadays, supervised machine learning enables the modelling of complex relationships between variables, and has been deployed by researchers in a variety of fields. In the existing literature, several studies have adopted either machine learning or statistical approaches in the task of DEM correction. However, to our knowledge, none of these studies have compared the performance of both approaches, especially with regard to open-access global DEMs. Our previous work has already shown the potential of machine learning approaches, specifically gradient boosted decision trees (GBDTs) for DEM correction. In this study, we share some results from the comparison of three recent implementations of gradient boosted decision trees (XGBoost, LightGBM and CatBoost), versus multiple linear regression (MLR) for enhancing the vertical accuracy of 30 m Copernicus and AW3D global DEMs in Cape Town, South Africa.

Tree-based machine learning models, such as decision trees and random forests, have been hugely successful in classification tasks primarily because of their predictive power in supervised learning tasks and ease of interpretation. Despite their popularity and power, these models have been found to produce unexpected or discriminatory outcomes. Given their overwhelming success for most tasks, it is of interest to identify sources of their unexpected and discriminatory behavior. However, there has not been much work on understanding and debugging tree-based classifiers in the context of fairness. We introduce FairDebugger, a system that utilizes recent advances in machine unlearning research to identify training data subsets responsible for instances of fairness violations in the outcomes of a random forest classifier. FairDebugger generates top-$k$ explanations (in the form of coherent training data subsets) for model unfairness. Toward this goal, FairDebugger first utilizes machine unlearning to estimate the change in the tree structures of the random forest when parts of the underlying training data are removed, and then leverages the Apriori algorithm from frequent itemset mining to reduce the subset search space. We empirically evaluate our approach on three real-world datasets, and demonstrate that the explanations generated by FairDebugger are consistent with insights from prior studies on these datasets.

This paper investigates the language of propaganda and its stylistic features. It presents the PPN dataset, standing for Propagandist Pseudo-News, a multisource, multilingual, multimodal dataset composed of news articles extracted from websites identified as propaganda sources by expert agencies. A limited sample from this set was randomly mixed with papers from the regular French press, and their URL masked, to conduct an annotation-experiment by humans, using 11 distinct labels. The results show that human annotators were able to reliably discriminate between the two types of press across each of the labels. We propose different NLP techniques to identify the cues used by the annotators, and to compare them with machine classification. They include the analyzer VAGO to measure discourse vagueness and subjectivity, a TF-IDF to serve as a baseline, and four different classifiers: two RoBERTa-based models, CATS using syntax, and one XGBoost combining syntactic and semantic features.