Earthquake-induced liquefaction can cause substantial lateral spreading, posing threats to infrastructure. Machine learning (ML) can improve lateral spreading prediction models by capturing complex soil characteristics and site conditions. However, the "black box" nature of ML models can hinder their adoption in critical decision-making. This study addresses this limitation by using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to interpret an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model for lateral spreading prediction, trained on data from the 2011 Christchurch Earthquake. SHAP analysis reveals the factors driving the model's predictions, enhancing transparency and allowing for comparison with established engineering knowledge. The results demonstrate that the XGB model successfully identifies the importance of soil characteristics derived from Cone Penetration Test (CPT) data in predicting lateral spreading, validating its alignment with domain understanding. This work highlights the value of explainable machine learning for reliable and informed decision-making in geotechnical engineering and hazard assessment.

In recent years, there has been a growing interest in using Machine Learning (ML), especially Deep Learning (DL) to solve Network Intrusion Detection (NID) problems. However, the feature distribution shift problem remains a difficulty, because the change in features' distributions over time negatively impacts the model's performance. As one promising solution, model pretraining has emerged as a novel training paradigm, which brings robustness against feature distribution shift and has proven to be successful in Computer Vision (CV) and Natural Language Processing (NLP). To verify whether this paradigm is beneficial for NID problem, we propose SwapCon, a ML model in the context of NID, which compresses shift-invariant feature information during the pretraining stage and refines during the finetuning stage. We exemplify the evidence of feature distribution shift using the Kyoto2006+ dataset. We demonstrate how pretraining a model with the proper size can increase robustness against feature distribution shifts by over 8%. Moreover, we show how an adequate numerical embedding strategy also enhances the performance of pretrained models. Further experiments show that the proposed SwapCon model also outperforms eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN) based models by a large margin.

Mycotoxins are a group of naturally occurring, toxic chemical compounds produced by certain species of moulds (fungi), during growth on various crops and foodstuffs, including cereals, nuts, spices and dairy products (The World Health Organization (WHO), 2023). The ingestion of certain mycotoxins has been linked to a range of harmful health impacts on both humans and animals, from short-term poisoning to long-term consequences such as liver cancer, and in some cases, death (Mavrommatis et al., 2021; Marroquín-Cardona et al., 2014; Liu and Wu, 2010). Mycotoxins are secondary metabolites (that is, compounds produced by an organism that are not essential for its primary life processes) and are often produced during the pre-harvest, harvest, and storage phases under favourable conditions of humidity and temperature (Marroquín-Cardona et al., 2014; Van der Fels-Klerx et al., 2022). The most prevalent mycotoxins include aflatoxins, tricothecenes, fumonisins, zearalenones, ochratoxins and patulin, and are produced by certain plant-pathogenic species of Aspergillus, Fusarium, and Penicillium (Tola and Kebede, 2016). Mycotoxin contamination in crop products has been found to vary significantly across different geographical locations and is influenced by annual weather conditions (Logrieco et al., 2021; Leggieri et al., 2020).

This study analyzes crop yield prediction in India from 1997 to 2020, focusing on various crops and key environmental factors. It aims to predict agricultural yields by utilizing advanced machine learning techniques like Linear Regression, Decision Tree, KNN, Na\"ive Bayes, K-Mean Clustering, and Random Forest. The models, particularly Na\"ive Bayes and Random Forest, demonstrate high effectiveness, as shown through data visualizations. The research concludes that integrating these analytical methods significantly enhances the accuracy and reliability of crop yield predictions, offering vital contributions to agricultural data science.

As the global population ages, the incidence of Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) is rising. CKD often remains asymptomatic until advanced stages, which significantly burdens both the healthcare system and patient quality of life. This research developed an explainable machine learning system for predicting CKD in patients with cardiovascular risks, utilizing medical history and laboratory data. The Random Forest model achieved the highest sensitivity of 88.2%. The study introduces a comprehensive explainability framework that extends beyond traditional feature importance methods, incorporating global and local interpretations, bias inspection, biomedical relevance, and safety assessments. Key predictive features identified in global interpretation were the use of diabetic and ACEI/ARB medications, and initial eGFR values. Local interpretation provided model insights through counterfactual explanations, which aligned with other system parts. After conducting a bias inspection, it was found that the initial eGFR values and CKD predictions exhibited some bias, but no significant gender bias was identified. The model's logic, extracted by scoped rules, was confirmed to align with existing medical literature. The safety assessment tested potentially dangerous cases and confirmed that the model behaved safely. This system enhances the explainability, reliability, and accountability of the model, promoting its potential integration into healthcare settings and compliance with upcoming regulatory standards, and showing promise for broader applications in healthcare machine learning.

The third Gaia data release (DR3) contains $\sim$170 000 astrometric orbit solutions of two-body systems located within $\sim$500 pc of the Sun. Determining component masses in these systems, in particular of stars hosting exoplanets, usually hinges on incorporating complementary observations in addition to the astrometry, e.g. spectroscopy and radial velocities. Several DR3 two-body systems with exoplanet, brown-dwarf, stellar, and black-hole components have been confirmed in this way. We developed an alternative machine learning approach that uses only the DR3 orbital solutions with the aim of identifying the best candidates for exoplanets and brown-dwarf companions. Based on confirmed substellar companions in the literature, we use semi-supervised anomaly detection methods in combination with extreme gradient boosting and random forest classifiers to determine likely low-mass outliers in the population of non-single sources. We employ and study feature importance to investigate the method's plausibility and produced a list of 22 best candidates of which four are exoplanet candidates and another five are either very-massive brown dwarfs or very-low mass stars. Three candidates, including one initial exoplanet candidate, correspond to false-positive solutions where longer-period binary star motion was fitted with a biased shorter-period orbit. We highlight nine candidates with brown-dwarf companions for preferential follow-up. One candidate companion around the Sun-like star G 15-6 could be confirmed as a genuine brown dwarf using external radial-velocity data. This new approach is a powerful complement to the traditional identification methods for substellar companions among Gaia astrometric orbits. It is particularly relevant in the context of Gaia DR4 and its expected exoplanet discovery yield.

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.

The evaluation of modelled or satellite-derived soil moisture (SM) estimates is usually dependent on comparisons against in-situ SM measurements. However, the inherent mismatch in spatial support (i.e., scale) necessitates a cautious interpretation of point-to-pixel comparisons. The upscaling of the in-situ measurements to a commensurate resolution to that of the modelled or retrieved SM will lead to a fairer comparison and statistically more defensible evaluation. In this study, we presented an upscaling approach that combines spatiotemporal fusion with machine learning to extrapolate point-scale SM measurements from 28 in-situ sites to a 100 m resolution for an agricultural area of 100 km by 100 km. We conducted a four-fold cross-validation, which consistently demonstrated comparable correlation performance across folds, ranging from 0.6 to 0.9. The proposed approach was further validated based on a cross-cluster strategy by using two spatial subsets within the study area, denoted as cluster A and B, each of which equally comprised of 12 in-situ sites. The cross-cluster validation underscored the capability of the upscaling approach to map the spatial variability of SM within areas that were not covered by in-situ sites, with correlation performance ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. In general, our proposed upscaling approach offers an avenue to extrapolate point measurements of SM to a spatial scale more akin to climatic model grids or remotely sensed observations. Future investigations should delve into a further evaluation of the upscaling approach using independent data, such as model simulations, satellite retrievals or field campaign data.

Breast cancer has rapidly increased in prevalence in recent years, making it one of the leading causes of mortality worldwide. Among all cancers, it is by far the most common. Diagnosing this illness manually requires significant time and expertise. Since detecting breast cancer is a time-consuming process, preventing its further spread can be aided by creating machine-based forecasts. Machine learning and Explainable AI are crucial in classification as they not only provide accurate predictions but also offer insights into how the model arrives at its decisions, aiding in the understanding and trustworthiness of the classification results. In this study, we evaluate and compare the classification accuracy, precision, recall, and F-1 scores of five different machine learning methods using a primary dataset (500 patients from Dhaka Medical College Hospital). Five different supervised machine learning techniques, including decision tree, random forest, logistic regression, naive bayes, and XGBoost, have been used to achieve optimal results on our dataset. Additionally, this study applied SHAP analysis to the XGBoost model to interpret the model's predictions and understand the impact of each feature on the model's output. We compared the accuracy with which several algorithms classified the data, as well as contrasted with other literature in this field. After final evaluation, this study found that XGBoost achieved the best model accuracy, which is 97%.

Site-specific weather forecasts are essential to accurate prediction of power demand and are consequently of great interest to energy operators. However, weather forecasts from current numerical weather prediction (NWP) models lack the fine-scale detail to capture all important characteristics of localised real-world sites. Instead they provide weather information representing a rectangular gridbox (usually kilometres in size). Even after post-processing and bias correction, area-averaged information is usually not optimal for specific sites. Prior work on site optimised forecasts has focused on linear methods, weighted consensus averaging, time-series methods, and others. Recent developments in machine learning (ML) have prompted increasing interest in applying ML as a novel approach towards this problem. In this study, we investigate the feasibility of optimising forecasts at sites by adopting the popular machine learning model gradient boosting decision tree, supported by the Python version of the XGBoost package. Regression trees have been trained with historical NWP and site observations as training data, aimed at predicting temperature and dew point at multiple site locations across Australia. We developed a working ML framework, named 'Multi-SiteBoost' and initial testing results show a significant improvement compared with gridded values from bias-corrected NWP models. The improvement from XGBoost is found to be comparable with non-ML methods reported in literature. With the insights provided by SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), this study also tests various approaches to understand the ML predictions and increase the reliability of the forecasts generated by ML.